MKN
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Posts posted by MKN
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2 minutes ago, IDO said:
A glancing blow:
Hopefully this is the start of a trend northwards as we need another 50mile or so shift north to make it more likely than not that some in the south will see something. At the moment there's every chance it could miss us altogether
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3 minutes ago, JimBob said:
So the models this morning have disposed of any significant snowfall next week as the midweek low resides somewhere over the middle of France. The Atlantic awakens next weekend so will be a short lived fairly standard wintery week for most if the latest models are to be believed.
That is the most likely outcome and always has been. Everyone always gets carried away by charts 180 hours away etc. Northerly outbreaks rarely produce for the majority of the UK except for those in the far North.
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5 minutes ago, Nick123 said:
I have no knowledge of the charts at all but I do wonder why we get excited about weather that's a week away when they change run by run?
People get carried away. If people follow the charts regular think back they'd remember that what the GFS is showing at around 200 hours 'the snowstorm' would only be around a 1-2% chance of verifying.
At the moment the only thing that would be reasonable to say is that it's turning colder again next week after a slightly milder few days with a small risk of Snowfall in the north from Monday with the risk extending southwards later In the week...
Beyond that would be pie in the sky.
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4 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:
was it not 28th Jan 2004? my location didn't do so well, not much luck with that one
It was 28th Jan 2004 and the reason your area didn't do quite aswell is because it lost alot of intensity over the pennines and peak district but really intensified around derby/Nottingham and for those further south. The heavy rain washed away any salt on the road and carnage ensued.
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-1.2c currently and raining.
Thank god it's late at night as it will be an ice rink for the next hour or so.
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Just now, stewfox said:
It's definitely rain now and I'm at 500 feet. The mixing of the air is interesting
Clearly a melt layer aloft causing It as ground temps are low enough
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6 minutes ago, sheikhy said:
Which part of warwick you in mate!!!
Definitely touch and to for us. Sleet at Brum airport doesn't bode well. But then we are stil -1.7c right now
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Bit of an odd one for us further south. Fog has kept Temps well below freezing all day, currently -2c here yet rain expected in the next hour or two.
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2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:
That some really heavy snow coming through from wales into the midlands!!you can see where the milder air is aswell its all the way near south wales!!that seems a long way further south!!!!
We won't see snow here mate upper air temps will see us seeing freezing rain.
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7 minutes ago, sheikhy said:
Ukv plasters me now!!!good evening so far!!!
Any pics?
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Precip not to far off now but I suspect the warm layer will potentially see rain rather than snow here falling on frozen ground. Buxtons gonna be the place this evening although I think Windermere wins the most snow award today that streamer has hammered them.
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14 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:
First Ice Day of the season today here, never got above minus 1c......
It will do before the end of the night.
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Temps dropping again. Could be interesting. Some of the places further south east have had slight mist/fog today keeping temps and dew points a fair bit below forecast temps. Was -1.5c max here earlier and now down to -1.9c. I fully expect temps to rise as precip nears but potential for a period of snow perhaps. If not horrendous freezing rain. Luckily it'll be late and not to many people will be out.
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Max at -1.5c here dp at -1.9c. of course not a guarenteed ice day as temps will rise later as precip closes in. Places that have reached higher temps north west of here are still forecast snow whereas rain here which is part of the headache for forecasters. I Still expect an entirely rain event here which will turn to ice on contact with surfaces. The first hour or so could be very slippery. Those above 300m from derby north could do very well for a time at least.
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Looks like a mainly rain/sleet event this evening for anyone south of Derby. Surprised the Meto warning comes as far south as it does although I'm guessing they are just covering themselves incase of any adjustments. At this stage 20 miles further north/south is about the most I'd expect from the latest GFS prediction. Buxton and the surrounding hills I suspect will do very well again just a shame that any snow will only be around for a couple of days until milder air takes over for the foreseeable.
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2 hours ago, chris pawsey said:
Got a family Christmas party on Sunday, i'm preparing a finger buffet for 60 guests! - What are the chances of people not being able to travel from Coventry to Kenilworth?
Should have no issues whatsoever i suspect overnight snow of a cm or two will be washed away through the day.
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17 minutes ago, phil nw. said:
Looking at the UKV overlay on the radar the low is headed up the Bristol channel now.
It should keep most of us on it's northern edge.
As it passes east later in the evening then we should see any rain changing back to snow as the colder air cuts south again.
The low center looks to be stretched across from the south west of Wales towards Kilkenny in Ireland. I can't see any precip currently over England or Wales falling as snow for us. What is currently over Ireland should provide some snow in about 12 hours time.
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Temps are around 0-1c. dew points across the area just below freezing. I think snow will be about done with very soon.
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Another shower here that has come in after the main band is entirely of snow. The cold may hang on long enough for that heavier precip to the south west.
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Turning sleety here for certain. Best hope ideally would be for the precip to clear until this evening. What time do the charts show colder air moving back in by?
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Precip beginning to pep up again. In the next 1 to 2 hours things should be interesting for many here although if anyone plans a walk in the snow I think do so before 9am. After which a rapid thaw will set in for the majority. Buxton could be worth a trip for those wanting to go to the snow. Although I'd only do it if you have a 4x4.
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A decent 6/7cms in Daventry and still snowing despite barely anything showing on the radar.
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Just now, JR319 said:
Still snowing lightly here in Leicester and looks like there’s a bit more on the way looking at the radar.
Pepping up again to the south west of Birmingham for sure. Then we may see a quiet spell until 3/4am when it starts to pick up again. I think all low lying areas in the midlands will see snow turn to rain about 10am tomorrow until 7/8pm in the evening with potentially some fun and games Friday morning.
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Snow intensifying here albeit not sticking yet. The band of precip in general seems to be a bit heavier and more organised than an hour ago.
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Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
People forget the Coventry to leics to warwick Bermuda triangle even during the 2010 freeze that we managed to avoid all but 1/2cms of snow that whole time.
This coming week doesn't look great for our area as things stand but I'd say at this range the track of that low is far from nailed yet.