[Midlands Regional Discussion Jan 2021 Onward]

I remember there was a dry slot like the icon is showing during an easterly we had before, hopefully we dont see the same thing happen. 

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

6 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Yes FOUR seperate snow events on the ECM.

Worth noting the 30-40cms above is half way thorugh the 4th major snow event, so you could probably add another 5-10cms onto that total for S.Midlands in particular.

Probably the snowiest operational run I've ever seen for the southern half of the UK. It will be interesting to see how many ensemble members go quite as snowy.

And then bare in mind significant drifting also.

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

I said it earlier but still applies. The area circled is key. If higher pressure remains in that area then the easterly lasts longer. 

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

6 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

UKMO and ECM 144h side by side.

Both very cold at that timeframe, UKMO Easterly, ECM more of a SE component.
They handle the Atlantic differently.

I don't know what EC 168h will look like.

Pressure around iceland hugely different, ecm is poor compared to ukmo. 

[Midlands Regional Discussion Jan 2021 Onward]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

SE wind useless here, goes up way east of here

I suspect that level of detail you two are just discussing will change a couple of times between now and sunday when things look to get going. Hopefully if anything we see upgrades as we count down to zero now. Having said that ukmo looks about as good as it gets. 

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

Providing pressure remains high enough where ive highlighted then a sustained easterly becomes more likely. Thats the key thing to look for over the coming runs... 

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Quite a big change from the 00z, long drawn easterly, rather than a south easterly, low should slide.

Thanks to that area of higher pressure around the south west of iceland. 

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

3 minutes ago, James Maidstone said:

So in election night style are we able to call it for the Beast yet?  The models look well aligned enough in my limited knowledge of models to call it.  Or do we still need to wait for some seats to be counted?  How is the swingometer looking?

 

Only up to +72 is fairly nailed on right now. Air cold enough for snow does not look likely for the southern half of the uk until sunday so i wouldn't be calling it until after the 12z outputs tomorrow. 

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

Just now, sheikhy said:

Its snow mate!!im pretty sure!!

Not much room for manoeuvre though. Ideally we see colder 850s earlier on in the run. 

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

5 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

When do we feel the make or break runs will be, 12z this afternoon or are we giving it another 24/48 hours or so?

Something has to give soon surely!

Anything past +72 is very changeable from run to run currently so id say we are giving this coming weekend at least another 24 hours. 

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

In summary after today's runs... Another day closer to some cold/very cold weather from saturday onwards with variable amounts of snow depending on small differences in the overall pattern which will effect our little island significantly. Overall a good day of model outputs. It will be weds to thurs until snowfall detail can really be looked at providing we are still looking at a cold outbreak then. 

[Midlands Regional Discussion Jan 2021 Onward]

2 hours ago, MattStoke said:

GFS 6z - There go the toys

I haven't visited the model thread but i expected toys would be thrown lol. Yet the overall pattern is still the same its just very minor differences which mean southern areas miss out. The 12z will probably be straight back to narnia. 

[Midlands Regional Discussion Jan 2021 Onward]

It's still on. If theres a chart like this inside +72 in the next few days then we can start to look forward to some snow

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

3 minutes ago, Phil Blake said:

 

Sea temps are still slightly above average. The difference is the source of air as discussed earlier. 

Above average or not they are colder by some distance compared to the 1st of jan so they will be much more conducive to snowfall. 

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

1 minute ago, Mr snowman 2018 said:

Hasn’t been that snowy with -7 uppers has been marginal on low ground during the day in some places !

Alot of the marginal situations we had that i assume you are referring to im guessing are around the late december cold spell. The sea temps are alot colder now which would help dew points. - 6to 8 850s would be fine for most. 

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

Just now, Kentish Snowman in Yorks said:

 

Lampost watcher is closer to the mark. This ecm is very close to being an absolute classic. A few adjustments earlier on and there would be no complaints at all. 

[Midlands Regional Discussion Jan 2021 Onward]

11 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Most computer models showed significant snow for early next week. I don’t know why people keep claiming they didn’t and that it never looked on. They have though clearly pushed things further north over the past couple of days, so I would expect the warnings to be trimmed back to just northern England and Scotland. The warnings were always going to be trimmed and refined as confidence in the detail increased. The fact the situation has changed doesn’t mean that it was never likely to happen or that the data didn’t back up the original warnings!

At the moment the only risk of any wintry precipitation in the ‘reliable’ timeframe is a patchy dusting for some of us tomorrow. Then we look towards next weekend onwards.

Not for the midlands they didnt. Ecm did for a time and arpege had 1 run that did also. Gfs and others have always shown 850 temps that wouldnt support snow south of about Sheffield and if so it would be very brief. Anyway 06z gfs easterly still on the cards details slightly different but overall theme very good.

Another impressive point from the 06z gfs would be that from around 3pm Tuesday parts of scotland could potentially see almost constant snowfall for 6/7days! Thats on top of the already stacked mountains. Frustrating for the skiers up there as it looks like it would have been the best season ever had it not been for corona. 

[Midlands Regional Discussion Jan 2021 Onward]

Surprised at how poor the meto have been with the warnings they issued both for yesterday (prior to its update) and for the mon to weds period. Both events never really had much support for any significant snow for the vast majority in the warning areas. This is following on from them issuing an amber warning when the snow was starting to die out in the areas they issued the warning for last Sunday.  The so called 100million quid super computer needs chucking in the bin

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

2 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

The 18z isn't the ECM which is all that matters to me 

Spot on. Ecm is different altogether and not very good for the UK. Wereas the gfs is very good, granted 18z not as snowy as its 12z but its just a slight alternative to the general theme. 

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

3 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

End of December.

That didnt result in anything particularly cold or snowy for many in the UK tbh. 

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

Just now, winterof79 said:

Hate the ECM evolution but it still produces another dumping. Lol

Still an abysmal run in comparison to The gfs if cold and snow is what your after. 

[Midlands Regional Discussion Jan 2021 Onward]

Icon 12z...

[Midlands Regional Discussion Jan 2021 Onward]

Icon 12z...a fair bit falling not alot settling. 

[Midlands Regional Discussion Jan 2021 Onward]

2 minutes ago, andy_leics22 said:

It kinda is and it kinda isn't

I tend to judge anything between t72 and t180 as medium range. If a trend starts to develop within a t180 timeframe, I will take it more seriously than if it was after that. Now it's a case of seeing how that develops over the next 3 days. If we still have an Easterly on the cards for the end of next week, by Monday, then the chances of it happening are pretty likely The good thing is, the ECM and UKMO are on board with it, at the moment. If it was just the GFS going for it, without the support of those 2, I would probably dismiss it.

I would agree its not without a chance as its been consistently modelled lately. ecm and gfs in agreement and now ukmo aswell. As you say though until around mon/tues there is far to much time to pass in which it could change. 

[Midlands Regional Discussion Jan 2021 Onward]

If whats being shown long term in the models comes off the next 5 days will look pretty tame in comparison...