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Everything posted by MKN
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The precip type radar images don't show what's actually falling. It takes the radar image of what is falling for intensity and location of the precip and then overlays what it believes that would be falling as based on a computer model it uses. So that data must have suggested that at 1015 the precip would likely become sleet rather than snow across the areas now changed.
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Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
MKN replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
There has been quite a few winters over the past 20 years in Scotland where even the mountains have been pretty much void of any snow. -
Since snow has been lacking around the Midlands you may be interested in this webcam from Princetown, Dartmoor. .. Dartmoor Princetown Live Webcam CAMSECURE.CO.UK Live streaming webcam from Princetown in Dartmoor Devon UK. This live webcam shows views from Princetown towards the moors and the infamous Dartmoor Prison can be seen in the distance too.
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Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
MKN replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Excellent 00z GFS. Cold upto 126 and includes snowfall for 48 hours continuously for those in the South from 6am weds. -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
MKN replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Other than being dry again the other parameters remain conducive for snow should anything crop up across the entire UK out to +180. -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
MKN replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Seems to be underplaying possible precip over the UK to me. The 850s under the scenario shown wouldn't need to be as cold with low surface and dew temps. Overall still frustrating however with cold remaining but not alot of snow. -
Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?
MKN replied to chionomaniac's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
What the ECM shows is perfectly feasible and has been the type of scenario which has lead to a cold spell going out with a whimper rather than a blizzard on many occasions. At the moment I'd say it has a good chance of happening as per the ECM as the heights to our north are not shown to be as strong as they were a couple of days ago. -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
MKN replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I think the trend is to push it Eastwards. The chances of the UK missing the highest 850s Tuesday and thus the 40+c is increasing. -
39.1C, Cambridgeshire, Monday 18th.
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Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
MKN replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The original poster saying Standard lol. they are forecasting nearly 2 weeks in London werby the capital doesn't fall below 26/27c I think that is a noticeable heatwave for the UK. -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
MKN replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Likewise I haven't seen a gfs op run show 41c before and also as mentioned in the original post widespread 45 or 46 across France is scary I can see them hitting close to 50c in the next 20 years at this rate. In the more immediate term next week looks like a gradual increase in temps for those in the south to the mid to high twenties at least once again. -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
MKN replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Their latest forecast showed 26c in London on Saturday and 20c on Sunday so nothing like the 33c for Sunday shown earlier. -
Storm Eunice - 18th February
MKN replied to Thunder and Lightning's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
They will be back when they see that the showers in wales, birmingham area and central southern england are falling as snow. -
Storm Eunice - 18th February
MKN replied to Thunder and Lightning's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Go and say hello to bigjet tv man. over 200k are watching that stream -
Storm Eunice - 18th February
MKN replied to Thunder and Lightning's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Im in hinckley and would disagree id be surprised if trees are not down in some places that are more exposed even round here. The winds have picked up since you posted this though mind on the back side of the low. -
Storm Eunice - 18th February
MKN replied to Thunder and Lightning's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Another camera feed... https://www.saundersfootconnect.co.uk/webcam/?fbclid=IwAR3GcRcd_FPPuGn8A7P1fdQWzjKvyCZS6yviYxTcjorUL_fb_SwWa7ahk64 -
Storm Eunice - 18th February
MKN replied to Thunder and Lightning's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Live cams in the storms way... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xsD21zBb73o Will liven up shortly -
Storm Eunice - 18th February
MKN replied to Thunder and Lightning's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
It wont appear that distinct alot of the strength of the storm is because of the strong jet stream. -
Storm Eunice - 18th February
MKN replied to Thunder and Lightning's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
To be expected, There will be one for sunday soon also i would have thought. Marginal as to whether sunday becomes storm franklin. -
Storm Eunice - 18th February
MKN replied to Thunder and Lightning's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Agree entirely, The BBC were ramping up the dangers at least. -
Storm Eunice - 18th February
MKN replied to Thunder and Lightning's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
There is a red warning -
Storm Eunice - 18th February
MKN replied to Thunder and Lightning's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Not seeing any sting jet on the gfs though so the 80ish mph being shown on there could easily end up more like 100mph