MKN

I remember there was a dry slot like the icon is showing during an easterly we had before, hopefully we dont see the same thing happen.

And then bare in mind significant drifting also.

I said it earlier but still applies. The area circled is key. If higher pressure remains in that area then the easterly lasts longer.

Pressure around iceland hugely different, ecm is poor compared to ukmo.

I suspect that level of detail you two are just discussing will change a couple of times between now and sunday when things look to get going. Hopefully if anything we see upgrades as we count down to zero now. Having said that ukmo looks about as good as it gets.

Providing pressure remains high enough where ive highlighted then a sustained easterly becomes more likely. Thats the key thing to look for over the coming runs...

Thanks to that area of higher pressure around the south west of iceland.

Only up to +72 is fairly nailed on right now. Air cold enough for snow does not look likely for the southern half of the uk until sunday so i wouldn't be calling it until after the 12z outputs tomorrow.

Not much room for manoeuvre though. Ideally we see colder 850s earlier on in the run.

Anything past +72 is very changeable from run to run currently so id say we are giving this coming weekend at least another 24 hours.

In summary after today's runs... Another day closer to some cold/very cold weather from saturday onwards with variable amounts of snow depending on small differences in the overall pattern which will effect our little island significantly. Overall a good day of model outputs. It will be weds to thurs until snowfall detail can really be looked at providing we are still looking at a cold outbreak then.

I haven't visited the model thread but i expected toys would be thrown lol. Yet the overall pattern is still the same its just very minor differences which mean southern areas miss out. The 12z will probably be straight back to narnia.

It's still on. If theres a chart like this inside +72 in the next few days then we can start to look forward to some snow ?️

Above average or not they are colder by some distance compared to the 1st of jan so they will be much more conducive to snowfall.

Alot of the marginal situations we had that i assume you are referring to im guessing are around the late december cold spell. The sea temps are alot colder now which would help dew points. - 6to 8 850s would be fine for most.

Lampost watcher is closer to the mark. This ecm is very close to being an absolute classic. A few adjustments earlier on and there would be no complaints at all.

Not for the midlands they didnt. Ecm did for a time and arpege had 1 run that did also. Gfs and others have always shown 850 temps that wouldnt support snow south of about Sheffield and if so it would be very brief. Anyway 06z gfs easterly still on the cards details slightly different but overall theme very good. Another impressive point from the 06z gfs would be that from around 3pm Tuesday parts of scotland could potentially see almost constant snowfall for 6/7days! Thats on top of the already stacked mountains. Frustrating for the skiers up there as it looks like it would have been the best season ever had it not been for corona.

Surprised at how poor the meto have been with the warnings they issued both for yesterday (prior to its update) and for the mon to weds period. Both events never really had much support for any significant snow for the vast majority in the warning areas. This is following on from them issuing an amber warning when the snow was starting to die out in the areas they issued the warning for last Sunday. The so called 100million quid super computer needs chucking in the bin

Spot on. Ecm is different altogether and not very good for the UK. Wereas the gfs is very good, granted 18z not as snowy as its 12z but its just a slight alternative to the general theme.

That didnt result in anything particularly cold or snowy for many in the UK tbh.

Still an abysmal run in comparison to The gfs if cold and snow is what your after.

Icon 12z...

Icon 12z...a fair bit falling not alot settling.

I would agree its not without a chance as its been consistently modelled lately. ecm and gfs in agreement and now ukmo aswell. As you say though until around mon/tues there is far to much time to pass in which it could change.

If whats being shown long term in the models comes off the next 5 days will look pretty tame in comparison...