MKN

I think if there high res models have a better understanding on any possible sting jet scenario then that may influence the red area barring coastal areas which should see a red warning regardless.

Arome is worst case i think with a clear sting jet adding an extra 10-20mph potentially in some areas inland to generally 80mph winds.

ECM nearly always fairs best when the winds are expected or a possibility from the east. The icon which was getting alot of flack didnt perform badly and never got on board with the cold idea either. Think its time everyone had a break and comes back after christmas hopefully to see the azores high pushing into Scandinavia and giving us an easterly in the new year

Somewhat favoured? Its around a 95% chance of being mild lol. Time to move on from this chase.

The best saying is 'get the cold in place and snow will follow'. To often people chase snow events at 4/5/6 days etc which is almost pointless as many of those dissapear and events that do occur often show up at fairly short notice unless of course we are slap bang under a huge area of high pressure. I do get some of the negativity with this coming week though as even the cold looks far from certain and could take another 24 to 48 hours to nail down the placement of cold enough conditions for those outside of scotland.

This probably will come down to that for some in here. Imo the models wont settle on how far south the colder air gets and where any possible precip meets it will be until about +24 and even then you often see the reality be 20/30 miles out

Fair assessment given the current output. Gfs seems to be slightly overdoing the risk further south but thats not to say the other models couldnt be wrong. Lets hope for a move to the gfs on the 12zs

ECM tends to trump the GFS when our weather is influenced from the East. So id be cautious over seeing anything wintry away from Scotland atm.

To far out to consider any snowfall yet. Get to Tuesday and if it's a possibility for Saturday/Sunday then start to take notice. Set yourself up for a dissapointment otherwise as UK snow events are almost impossible to pinpoint at range. Even inside 48 hours they can shift 30-50 miles quite easily.

The main difference and crucial imo is the heights around Iceland 1025mb compared to 1020mb. Small difference in the grand scheme of things but makes a big difference to what the UK ends up with.

The stronger heights need to be around Iceland to force the cold further south.

Definitely. The more squashed the low appears so to speak the better I think for snow chances in order to draw in colder air to the east. ❄

The mid range time frame not looking to good now though with the chance of a scandi high diminishing. Hope to see a big improvement from the 12zs.

I'm in Leicester can see ice within the rain on the windowscreen so perhaps a chance itl turn later on.

173 mph was recorded on the summit of cairngorm. (20th March 1986)

Theres only so many let downs i can take each winter lol personally i prefer it mild if we are not going to have any snow. Im just here for the one day we may actually get something like the ecm showed a while back...

Could be it for this winter if milder air wins out next week. Granted theres always chance of snow in march but with the sun being stronger it never tends to stick around unless its an extreme event.

Where have you seen that? Ive not looked at any charts since yesterday but when i did they seemed to suggest showers dying out the further into the week we went.

Dry and cold.

Still snowing here which has left a thin dusting and the odd area it didnt melt earlier perhaps couple cms. If these showers keep going all night potentially will be a cm or 2 more. Not great when you look at the 850s being blown in on a decent looking easterly though lol.

Tbh sheikhy ur 10cms u said earlier looks about 3cms deep lol

Yea but its ukv and euro4 etc that went for significant amounts today. The gfs done them once again tbh for the majority of areas.

Incredible really not to far away, not a covering here. The radar not looking the best now though and gfs goes for it dying down.

The last shower we had did stick in places where earlier it was melting so hopefully some of them showers head a bit further north.

Naff all in Hinckley lol