weather eater

Still for all the earlier SW drama by 162hrs the 12z looks very like the 06z at the same stage, not a lot in it really quite small differences. here's the 06z

Short wave drama it happens every time we get the potential for an easterly set-up, it’s the best reason to never get carried away by charts at 96hrs plus.

Stop it nick I haven’t got that many likes in my locker, I can’t stick one next to every one of your posts

Just had my first chance to view the whole of the 06z run, a slower evolution than the 00z but still a good run, hopefully it will be the first bite of the cherry with something more and maybe better to come for the end of the month and into Feb. Of course we have a way to go before we know exactly how the synoptics are going to look for the start of next week and we will see changes, these are inevitable. Now I know I know this is not what some will want to hear but these things seem to have that habit of downgrading more often than upgrading IMO and even when they don’t the path to cold and snow nirvana is often rocky. As I’m sure Nick Sussex would say, expect short wave drama or low pressure drama for those that prefer that term. So a small plea because with the models trending in the way that they are this place is likely to get very busy. Can we just discuss the models without berating others just because their interpretation of the models is different from yours, or because they choose to highlight other areas other than cold and snow. For example when the pattern will or looks likely to break down, or berating them for not being positive enough, the clue to what this thread is about is in the title, positive and negative have nothing to do with it, and while people making posts just to wind others up is dull and we know they do, so also is reading through pages of tit for tat moans or having digs at people just because their preferred weather type is not the same as yours/bulk of members, it’s not a closed shop, there is not a rule that only coldies can post. OK I’m not a mod, so I guess that some members will think that I don’t have the right to make such a plea, but I am a member who would have a lot more posts to my name had I not got so bored and jaded with bickering, bickering which has a tendency to increase the more the models point at a potential cold spell.

Thank goodness for that, a bit of a downgrade but with lots of time and wiggle room to shift back to something much better,

I'm not surprised its a very impressive run.

Really good runs this morning, though I think I would be happier if we had waited a few more days before seeing such good charts, too many days of adjustments for my liking and there is no question, there will be adjustments, there always is, I hope they are for the better. The other thing of note, is that for all its critics the GFS in rather typical fashion has gone with the idea of a possible easterly before the ECM and this despite being late to smell the coffee in regards the broader blocking signal, it may waver on the diving board for a long while but once it decides to jump it’s a double pike triple summersault job.

Not could change at 168hrs Nick, it will change at 168hrs; let’s hope it’s for the better. I hate seeing good synoptics at this range they are frequently wasted, they downgrade more often than upgrade and this one is going the way of the pear, good job none of tonight’s runs are Stella, there’s plenty of room to go either way. We had better hope the ECM is not out scoring the GFS this evening as I would suggest the GFS 12 is a better run, although not as good as this evenings GEM.

Cheers Captain and it looks like we don’t have to wait until tomorrow for the output to be turned on its head, it’s been a pretty good evening so far, but what’s the betting that just as the GFS says easterly, tonight’s ECM will jump ship.

The GFS just goes out too far and in simple terms the sums just get bigger and bigger, the guess work at the numbers becomes greater and the calculations wilder. The ECM has it about right maybe stretching it a bit, even though we all wish that sometimes it went further, the UKMO arguably has it about spot on at 144hrs, still without the GFS this place would be a lot quieter in the winter time.

Lots of cold air getting where we want it but can we get it this way, very interested as to what the UKMO’s take on this will be this evening as the GFS is millimetres off a full blown easterly on this run, when I say full blown, it’s a Scandi one at least.

It did, but my argument this morning is that it’s not just the GFS that’s not keen, the ECM is rather wishy-washy as well, what we need is for the block to shift back west. The debate for me is how likely is it to do so, from experience I would put it down at 70/30 against and then hope I'm badly wrong, I like Johns odds better.

It is possible, my experience of model watching is that these things are more likely to be pushed further east, not to mention what Nick F has explained in his post above and Nick's below.

Throwing in the towel, I just say what I see, I have no interest in viewing models in either a positive or negative manner, glass half full or half empty is irrelevant, it is the model discussion thread, not the model discussion thread only if you are super optimistic about a cold spell. If you want to disagree that’s fine, you explain you’re rational and I will do the same, it’s a discussion not a competition even though a vast number of members seem to want to treat it as such. And who said anything about writing off the rest of the month, all I am doing is reporting on how I think the models are trending and have been for a few days, by tomorrow morning that may be completely turned on its head.

But its heading that way unless we can get the block to come back west we will end up that way, nothing of course is set in stone so we shall see.

Looking at the broad picture in reality it has not really changed over the last few days. Yes we have seen some shifting of the synoptics, some looking more likely than others for getting us to a proper cold shot. However that broad picture, zonal, some kind of blocking for a short while, MLB occasionally higher, then a return to something more zonal, that theme has been with us for some days now. The GFS going further out started it, the ECM now that the blocked section is coming into mid range has started to trend zonal long range with the blocking being shunted further east.

Because it’s NW forum law, you could have, at least if such things were possible, a cat 5 hurricane bearing down on us and we would still be discussing whether it would pull in a cold northerly once the center passed over us.

We still can’t quite shake the theme can we, at least not yet, zonal, some sort of HLB/MLB and back to zonal, at least we can get past the GFS playing catch up to the ECM argument because the ECM has thrown a tangent, in reality it’s the usual story past 144hrs all the models are playing catch up. What I would say is that tonight output has put some flesh on IFs post earlier. “Any meaningful public communication of key expected weather type is almost currently impossible beyond mid-Jan and it's highly unlikely we will be any closer to the likely outcome anytime soon. “

Thank you Nick Sussex and bluearmy sensible pragmatic and logical analysis

Indeed, as BA was kind of saying a bit of a hybrid, better for cold I would say, a route to Crewe’s easterly.

By the amount of likes your post has got Ian I expected it to say 1947 is just around the corner, however, it looks like what you are saying is that, what the key weather type will be post mid-month is impossible to say at this point.

It’s a pity everybody can’t just except that others view things differently, after all does it really matter if X or Y thinks one model is better than another, the proof is always in the outcome.

I doubt it will be crucial matty, there is more mileage to come from this I suspect, lots more debate to be had yet, no problem with that just as long as it doesn’t get personal.

The broad sweep is the same and going the same way, an easterly doesn’t look around the corner to me, I wish it were otherwise.

12z seems broadly consistent to me, zonal, MLB back to zonal of a more PM variety, much the same as the ECM in its broad projection I would say. I don’t know about backtracks, it just looks like standard inter run variation to me. Still dryer and colder for a time looks pretty likely now, so amen to that.