weather eater

Just seen the GFS 12z utter madness, talk about one bus quickly followed by another, Wed into Thurs and Friday good grief.

Another change of track for the low on Thursday but a no less worrying wind profile especially for the SW.

Wind, rain and more wind and rain looks the order of the day, but with plenty of uncertainty as to what and where. So FI for us is really short, from Tue onwards there is still much to be decided in regards the pressure pattern. Unfortunately there is still little signs of cold, except the GFS, which from late mid range at least try’s to introduce some HP and thus a chance to dry out and cool off somewhat. I will however, be very surprised if the 18z follows suit.

Looks like rain and more rain to me, the deep low Saturday looks really bad and the models are persisting with the idea of another nasty feature mid week, track and intensity still up in the air. No sign of a proper cold spell before the end to Feb, although some will see some snow. Certainly the METO who have been excellent all winter only see a zonal month ahead. It’s all very well being good at interpreting how the synoptics could develop outside of what the models are showing it’s a great skill, unfortunately real events keep kicking any ideas of a pattern change into touch. What happens most of the time is that broadly speaking the models are better than they are given credit for. Look at this winter the models have never really gone for a cold spell in any meaningful way and they have turned out to be right. Personally I won’t write off the possibility of a cold spell for a good few weeks yet, last year proved that but I would put a small sum on us not seeing anything of real note cold wise this month and then hope I’m wrong.

The GFS once again hints at a pattern change in FI, a small straw to clutch at but I’ll believe it when I see it. Meanwhile the rain continues unrelentingly and both the ECM and the UKMO are showing the potential for another nasty feature for Tue into Wed, hope Amazon deliver by boat in time. But here is a small bit of cheer at least somebody like the rain. http://metro.co.uk/2014/02/05/kayden-and-rain-video-of-little-girls-first-experience-of-a-downpour-4291650/

Let’s hope thats the case, it’s usually the GFS that goes overboard with dangerous looking lows and waters them down as we get close, that doesn’t seem to happening this year.

Very nasty low and very disappointing output this evening Bobby, I really did think we were on the cusp of a pattern change but I'm starting to wonder if we haven’t just been sold another red herring, this is a poor ECM coming out, time to change the car for a boat.

I’m not going to belabour the point, it seems pretty obvious that I am only referring to how model thread users tend to use the word and that is as I said, I was not trying to say it was wrong or right, the simple fact is on this thread almost nobody uses the word average or phrase average for the time of year, its either cold or mild. Personally when I see a member use the word mild I don’t feel an overwhelming need to jump all over them for using the word to describe temperatures in winter of 5 or 6 degrees as mild not average, because I know they simply mean not really very cold for the time of year, not cold enough for what we are all looking for by that I mean not just a bit of hill snow or snow of a transient nature. Karyo it might help if you linked to charts that everyone has access too, Wetter has not updated past 78hrs and I personally find them easier to see what’s what, as opposed to Meteociel. Overall I was hoping for a bit more from the 12z it still looks pretty zonal.

I can’t believe that there is a discussion going on about mild vs. cold, I thought it would be pretty obvious that when people use the word mild on here during the winter they just mean everything from average upwards in other words not out and out cold. In terms of the models we are certainly seeing the variability of output I would expect when a possible pattern change is in the offering but that’s a wait a see job. More pressing is the here and now, with even more rain and another powerful storm waiting in the wings for Saturday for areas badly affected, some scary stuff on the news today. I have to say outside of cold and snow this is the most interesting winter I can remember for a very long time; it is a shame that we have not had a decent cold spell so far, especially for those whose weather interest only appears to be snow, any snow, even a few transient flakes, a bit odd in my book but each to their own. Not being discussed is this beauty, most likely because its wind is more of an issue for the Biscay regions, although I’m sure it’s not making Nick S feel very comfortable.

Something is afoot, we are starting to see a lot of variability from the mid range onwards and signs that the PV is running out of steam and shifting, I expect to see some interesting charts over the coming days.

The Express may well have done us a favour Fred, they are so good at getting it wrong that we should be hopeful of their early demise, so a week or so not a month.

That's true it blew the ECM away in 2010, but i think we will see other solutions offered over the coming days.

I have to say I agree with anyweather, the GFS is usually very good at this kind of setup, in fact I would say that whatever the verification stats say about the models globally the GFS has been very good of late in regards our side of the pond. So a very wet and nasty week coming up but with signs over recent runs that we may then see a pattern change, I wouldn’t at this stage like to say exactly how that will manifest itself, but obviously we all hope it’s the GFS op run that’s nearest the mark.

Just seen the 18z anyone got a life jacket I can borrow, better still a boat.

Just got round to having a peek at the 18z and what good fun it was, the problem so many of you on this thread seem to have, is that you seem you think runs will verify or that one of the ensemble members will. The truth is the climate is in a state of constant flux and synoptic patterns do not just pop out of a computer program, they evolve, the computer just makes educated guesses, sometimes they are right or near enough and sometimes not, there is always the capacity to surprise. Which is why I said this earlier. "For me nothing is set in stone the data is renewed every run so there is always the prospect of something worthwhile just out of sight, its why I like weather watching so much, the evolution never stops." Personally I recommend Tamara's more shall we say holistic approach, we might see nothing of note this winter, but that looking at the wider picture approach is more likely to pay dividends than hanging on every run, I only do that for the fun of the banter at least when people are showing each other respect, not because i expect runs to verify.

Another 30 or so days of winter plus March to get through, so there’s still time for a decent spell and enough possibilitys in the projections for something tasty to develop, but I suspect many had expectations that we were on the brink, so maybe jam tomorrow is not what some want to hear. For me nothing is set in stone the data is renewed every run so there is always the prospect of something worthwhile just out of sight, its why I like weather watching so much, the evolution never stops.

Well that’s the ECM 12z done, Is this a classic case of never mind I’ll get my coat and more a case of I’ll get my boat.

A Miracle and the ECM can't do it

That’s true as well although I don’t think there are hard and fast time rules when it comes to initial event and then effect. March could still be decent in an IMBY way, certainly last March I saw some of the deepest snow that I’ve seen since 1987 but I doubt that will float many other people’s boats.

That usually apply when we get a cold continental feed for several days from a very robust block, then you have all the fun and games of snow showers off the north sea and potential slider lows running up the channel, unfortunately we can’t get to base one and its difficult at the moment to see how that’s going to evolve at the moment.

The Stat could throw a spanner in the works that’s for certain but unfortunately it’s not a guarantee of cold for the UK.

I’d like to say something positive but the only thing I can think of is that the pattern will continue to evolve, so who knows what the next couple of days will bring. For me the telling sign is that despite four runs a day the GFS has never really gone for the idea of anything more than a brief easterly feed, whereas I would have expected it to have pulled at least the odd rabbit out of the bag, but then it is very progressive with the Atlantic so maybe that’s to be expected. As for the UKMO I have never trusted its 120hr and 144hr output, still it may yet prove me wrong, the ECM is out in a while but I have little faith in how it models blocking on our side of the pond. It looks like my summery is Don’t trust the ECM with blocking Don’t trust the UKMO at 120 and 144hrs And don’t trust the GFS as it’s too progressive A long term positive could be that apparently the little Ice age was proceeded by three extremely wet years, so expect some serious snow about 2017

Its inescapable that the GFS despite changes early on just wants to break down the block post 96hrs, but there must remain a massive uncertainty about this projection as synoptic evolutions do not stand still and it would take very little to achieve a completely different evolution as we have seen from other suites this morning, hell its only weather.

My thoughts exactly, post 120hrs we have a mish-mash of solutions which should suggest to all on the forum little confidence in any of them is advisable. Its real wait and see job, a bit of a heavy weight contest, the scandi block as Ali on the ropes, playing dope-a-rope and the PV as Foreman, big strong and powerful, wanting to batter its way in, could go either way at this stage. ding ding next round starts just before ten.

I don’t think so, its Gibby’s summery of how he sees things others have other ideas, all are fair comment, the weather has a way of dumbfounding the wise, plenty of expert opinions have flounded when faced with the complexity of forecasting for our small island, even in these days of saturation model watching.