weather eater

Looks to me on the radar that it will track Cheshire gap, Birmingham then London although I doubt it will amount to much by then

The MO via the BBC seem to be edging towards the mainly dry after tonight/tomorrow morning, that of course will be subject to much revision. As for the models we feel a bit stuck at the moment waiting to see whether we are heading towards something less cold or whether they are going to pull a rabbit out of the sack. The ECM a case in point it looks as if it's going somewhere interesting but doesn't really manage it.

That just sounds a recipe for more confusion to me, it's bad enough just trying to way-up the pros and cons of the GFS vs the UKMO and the ECM. You can see that confusion caused by the kitchen sink of models, runs and their attendant ensembles just about every day of the year on the model thread, peaking in winter, sometimes I feel less is the new more.

Doesn't that make them next to useless,, the ensembles are supposed to be guidance for the OP but the OP is the new GFS and the ensembles the old.

Yes the GEMs cunning plan appears to have gone the way of the pear. As for the polar low there is some debate whether this was modelled or is just a feature that has appeared on satellite imagery, from what I gather the MO think it is a PL.

I wonder if the express are paying attention, bet nobody there has ever heard of a polar low before. A new buzz weather phase to drop into their snow sensation stories, JM are you watching, repeat after me Polar Low, could in the right hands be snow measured in metres not centimetres.

A long way to go for the mid-term solution to come into focus although I still don't see it being this morning's GEM solution, unfortunately. Much will depend on the modelling of the low and lobe of vortex north of Newfoundland early next week.

Good call by Daniel then. My guess is that, if it was off the English east coast then that might create some consternation for the MO. As it is off the NW coast of Scotland and as they are supposed to be short lived affairs then it may not even get a mention.

certainly looks like some of these but I'm no expert http://www.keesfloor.nl/wolken/sat/polarlow.htm

And all of that should be pointing you at the fact that the ensembles are producing no more of a guide than the operationals, its one thing today, something else yesterday and tomorrow. Obviously all of this stuff is here to discuss and it's good to do so but I don't think there is much of an overwhelming case as yet for a long term continuation of the cold or a quicker return to something less so. And even if there was then any of us who have been doing this stuff for years know that trends have a habit of changing tack. My own view on the ensembles suites and I've said so for years, is that much of the time they makes things more confused and not less so.

I have to say as well, hats off to the GFS it has done really quite well with this spell, except for over complicating the LP for a time, it certainly picked up the slider low early. The 06z after toying with an easterly has reverted to the idea of the MLB close or over the UK that we saw from a number of runs a couple of days ago, I still think this looks like the most likely solution with the possibility of a reload thereafter.

Well the 06z is not the GEM but it's not a million miles away either, this evenings runs could be quite interesting to say the least.

Incredibly difficult for the MO, small synoptic changes are making big differences in precipitation, will it won't it, amounts and type they will keep their cards close to their chest so as to give the best advice as soon as they are sure.

Well we can live in hope but some ensemble support doesn't mean much, there is support of other options as well, I would have a lot more faith in the GEM if it had some other operational support. Remember the operational is the models best guess, the ensembles are just a guidance for the operational they are not alternative forecasts as such.

There is no historical data its pure climate science mathematics and yes I think the same set of starting conditions are run, remember these are global models so trying to work from historical data from all over the world would be next to impossible.

Unfortunately the GEM stands alone and if it comes off I may have to start believing in the super natural. However the changes from the big three happens really early into the run and it is similar to last night output, so maybe that gives it some credibility. Then again none of the big three have shown any sign of backing that evolution at any stage. I want it to be right but I feel it's a wild goose chase, can anybody remember the last time it trumped the GFS, ECM and UKMO at 96-120hrs.

I would agree with WIB in regards the fact that at least one run would have to show something more shall we say progressive but it is one operational run and a possible breakdown in 5/6 days is a long way off in synoptic evolution terms. However, there is no getting away from the fact that it has credence if little support yet.

You can see that in the BBC forecasts , they are not that far off now casting such is the MO uncertainty.

Me I rather suspect though I was looking for something closer to home, while its just for fun and far out from the GFS this from the GEM is not. Shame the GEM is not reliable enough and shame its really still only MLB and not HLB. all the same its tasty.

Indeed that's pretty sensational and that's what I keep hoping the GFS UKMO and ECM would offer some hints at. But I guess given the time scales then jam today will be gone before we get to taste it, that's what usually happens. Better for those sorts of chart to appear at 96hrs.

It's always the same Daniel as soon as the cold begins to bite everyone leaves for the regional's, which rather proves the point that in winter this thread is just a snow chasing one and very few are that interested in synoptic models unless snow is in the mix. Nothing really wrong with that I guess and I suppose (and I include myself here) we just hate to admit we are still all little kids at heart and snow brings that out in us. Mean while in model land we have some of the best continuity I have seen for a cold spell modelled by the operational runs since 2010. The only disappointment for those of us who want to see a really prolonged and bitter cold spell is that we cannot seem to get the ops to do more than give some faint hints at possible heights to our NW.

Ha me too but if you want to see the real power of snow its at its worst when combined with wind especially in the countryside.

BBC very reluctant to go much further than tomorrow morning and I don't blame them. As for the showers the weather graphics are pretty meaningless and they are just a generalisation. some areas that look like they are being missed could get plenty and others the opposite. Radar much more useful in this instance

Snow here in East Lindsey district, rather wet horizontal snow it has to be said and very windy.

Which rather supports the idea that the operational is considered far more important and trusted even without the support of the ensembles. Sometimes they are a guide and sometimes not and frankly they are subject to as many vagaries as the operationals. They are run from the same data as the operational but tweaked. Subsequently if an operational run differs quickly and substantially from the previous run because of big data changes from the previous run then its ensembles will also reflect a big change from the earlier runs ensembles. In other words an ensemble set is only relevant to its operational or at least only to the point of divergence between operational runs.