weather eater

Was just looking at the ECM on Metociel as it comes out a bit quicker than Wetter, have just swopped to Wetter and boy does it look better, but I have a feeling that you are right, the models do tend to downgrade the uppers in these situations as we approach zero hour, but hey maybe not this time.

Its got some promise but its too far away and it will change we both know it, how do you see it developing for the better, rather than the worse, good spot re the UKMO earlier by the way..

I have to say looking at the ECM and UKMO charts at 120hrs there is hardly anything in it and at 144hrs on the ECM in comes the next low, I have a feeling that this evenings ECM will be similar to this mornings

Not bad but at 120hrs the Atlantic is waiting in the wings, the PV is so strong at the moment I can’t see what’s going to stop it from continuing to dominate our synoptic patterns, I wish it were otherwise

It’s quite simple really at zero hours plus the models get progressively poorer and for our tiny island two or three hundred miles further north, south, east or west makes a huge difference to us, so even in the simple aspect of the positioning of weather patterns modelling is extremely difficult. I don’t think this will ever change, unpredictability is built in, it’s like trying to do a very long sum, you do the early calculations then look back to find the start numbers have changed, it happens to all of the models, all of the time. This of course is always going to be a problem on weather forum with hundreds of people during winter who are looking for a weather type that’s a rareity in our islands, especially south of the highlands.

I have to say as am unashamed coldie that I often find myself hoping that things will go pear shaped for cold because of the level of rudeness on the model thread by a sizeable crowd, rudeness to anyone who’s not gung-ho for cold, anybody in fact who so much as makes a case for what can go wrong, it is a disgrace. What we have in reality is a lot of people on both sides of the fence who want to rub peoples noses in it when they are right about how synoptics have panned out. The simple fact of the matter is codies out weigh mild fans on the model forum at about 50 - 1 and frankly they use that weight in numbers to bully, there are plenty of people sitting on their high horses slagging others off who themselves are no better than play ground bullies, some people would be advised to look at themselves first before having digs at others.

Indeed but the point still stands and I have to say, so what if those were the words used its only the weather for lords sake, sometimes on this thread you would think its life and death and that certain members had not just commented on weather patterns but had instead threatened to kill somebody’s mother, how about a little live and let live., every time a cold pattern either implodes or looks like it may not be quite what was hoped for we get this nit picking and aggro and its not restricted to one side or the other.

Indeed but that doesn’t make the GFS wrong all the time or the UKMO and ECM right and what do those figures apply to, the global view or just our neck of the woods because its perfectly possible for the ECM for instance to out score the GFS globally but just not on our patch, of course I’m not saying that’s the case but sometime statistics don’t tell the whole story.

I think that would hold more weight if the UKMO had previously been well supported but in this instance it has just backtracked towards the other suites, as has the GEM, and that’s not a pretty picture. Nothing is of course set in stone, people seem to often make the mistake of thinking that the models have periods of zero evolution but that’s well wide of the mark. The real problem we have on this thread is a competitive streak and an awful lot of us have it to one degree or another, a little more tolerance for the fact that other people have different opinions and that they are entitled to air them would go a long way to helping the situation, but of course that may make the thread less entertaining than it is.

I still think we can get something of interest out of this, maybe not for everyone but some parts of the country may do well, in my book never underestimate the power of the PV or a Scandi block. Whatever model has moved to what and where is of little relevance now because regardless the 12z GFS will still be too progressive in the post 120hr range.

looks more like shandy than Stella to me.

Usually we get a blow by blow, frame by frame commentary, why do I feel there's a pile of people out there biting their nails and talking in hushed voices, not bad in my book at 90hrs, better at 102hrs.

I think you are splitting hairs I did not say the BBC is the METO, the BBC present a forecast created by the METO it’s a simple as that. As I say I've seen today’s forecast and it features no snow over anything but northern hills, even here looks very marginal and I'm only a few miles from kinder scout, yes it could be wrong but I doubt its far off the mark. I guess we will have to agree to disagree and see what happens. It’s a shame for the SW, historically it has a reputation for some of the heaviest falls but it doesn’t seem to get so much these days.

We do hope so, but this thread is mainly about conjecture a lot of the time and on that basis, if the UKMO projection fails and we get something more akin to the GFS, then I suspect that the cold uppers projected for next Saturday into Sunday will get mixed out, it seems to be something the models do in NW projections, big them up and then knock them down as we approach zero hour, so let’s hope the UKMO is on the boil this time. Meanwhile we now have a storm overhead, rain, hail, the wind has got up and we have thunder and lightning like a couple of giants are having a barny up in the hills, its gone a bit mental here.

As I say I’ve seen the BBC forecast which is in effect the METO and they don’t seem to be going for snow at lower levels, that will be a human call I suspect. I think the point stands, a few days ago we were being predicted cold uppers for several hours Sunday into Monday and now it’s over very quickly. Obviously in a winter like this has been, any kind of white stuff will be welcome by some, personally unless it’s going to snow and stay I can’t see the point.

Not quite true Joe, the colder uppers are set to mix out much quicker now and other than on the high ground and maybe for a little while lower down most precipitation will fall as rain as per the forecast I have just seen on the BBC.

Yes and the same will apply next Saturday if the GFS is on the right track.

Interesting points, I would go along with the idea that FI at any time is where we start to see a scatter in the ensembles or op runs. However the UK is really a very tiny island, so FI for us is rarely much more than 3 days, simply because what appear to be very small differences in placements of pressure systems, temperatures, wind speeds, precipitation are for us hugely important, its why forecasting in the UK is such a nightmare so much of the time.

In my opinion all the models struggle with blocking, not only do they struggle with how hard they are to shift they also struggle with placement as well, I still think this is a knife edge situation and still 60/40 in favour of a more westerly regime, hopefully things will be a bit clearer come this evening and either the GFS or ECM, will have come on board with the UKMO, or even better both.

As others have said a mixed bag this morning, never mind dear old Shannon Entropy it looks more of a case of the Clint Eastwood’s this morning, The Good, The Bad and The Ugly, The UKMO keeps its theme and its consistency with a much more robust easterly. The GFS in many ways also consistent, just a different theme, a brief easterly before the return of the Atlantic in the form of some very cold PM air. Then there’s the ECM, a dog’s breakfast of a run, a brief easterly before becoming a right Jackson Pollock, more ammunition that maybe the ECM’s reputation for modelling blocking on our side of the pond is not that great.

Still a good trend But I do hate it when the forum gets too confident; it’s like a Groundhog Day script. you know how it goes, it’s usually tears at the end. UKMO does look good but I've never trusted its 144hr output, however, on saying that I've also always thought that the ECMs reputation for blocking projections was over blown.

The best way to view the 12z GFS is ignore the detail, it’s going to change, it’s the trend that’s important and this is going exactly in the way we want at the moment.

It certainly looks that way, looking at the rainfall radar and it’s a real struggle even here in the west, we have only had a very light drizzle. However, that doesn’t change the point; yesterdays forecast for the eastern side of the country didn’t say raining all day. As I said in earlier post, weather has the habit of catching out the cleverest of people; the METO would be the first to say so. That doesn’t of course mean that the MO should start issuing alarmist calls about the prospects of colder weather arriving next week, the knife edge to me still looks 60/40 in favour of a colder but unsustained spell of weather rather than a major freeze up, let’s hope the 12z builds on this mornings output.

That’s not the forecast I saw, potential fog across East Anglia this morning, rain here in the west by 10 o’clock ish, rain not across the east until later in the afternoon. It’s just starting to rain here now.

Difficult one Karl, even here on the forum superstition has taken hold, don’t say a word about potential cold as it could jinx it. The METO as IF has alluded to over the last couple of days are not yet convinced that something cold is on the way but they do acknowledge that there are possibilities, I think that’s wise at the moment. We all know how this things look good for a couple of days and then fall apart, that’s why a slow evolution in model projections is what I want to see and not 1947 charts at 144hrs plus.