weather eater

And the Mexican standoff continues

I have to say and unfortunately so, that I fail see where we are inching towards the Euros. The GFS appears to me to be showing remarkable consistency. Yes of course there is some variation but nothing you wouldn't see day to day any time of year. I suspect (though hope I'm wrong) either this evening or by the morning we will see an about turn by the UKMO in particular and a shift towards the GFS by the ECM.

I can sense that some are thinking the GFS is out on its own and must back down. While I hope that's the case I've been watching weather models for a good few years and I've seen it plenty of times. and the big bad lone wolf beats the pack more often than you might think. In any case post 120hrs there will be a lot more evolution to come.

Nice very nice but as ever with synoptic modelling its evolution not revolution. something similar would be good though

144hrs and that's good enough for me the rest is just for fun (or not as the case may be). just goes to show just how much small changes early doors can have big impacts further up the line. Nice to see but I would hold off on the celebrations for a while yet.

I do hope you are right. However epic fails are not restricted to the GFS. In terms of the UKMO I have no faith in it post 96hrs, that's a long term observation on my part, others may have other ideas. I have yet to see in these potential cold situations the UKMO trump the ECM and GFS, especially not if it is out on its own. When we do have a split in the models what normally happens is not a one model or the other emerging as a clear winner but a compromise solution. If this evening ECM goes with a UKMO/GEM solution then the game is still very much on but if it backs the GFS then I fear we will be left waiting to see what the morning after evolution is going to look like.

How often does the UKMO or the GEM trump the GFS in these sorts of situations, not very often unfortunately. Tonight's ECM will be an enlightening, If it follows the GEM and UKMO then there is a chance that they, not the GFS has the right signal. if not then we will just have to hope that the GFS at least changes tack on its mid-range projections, otherwise its back to the blow torch.

Gosh it's been a while since I have posted in here, I've moved across the country from west to east, out of the rain, somewhat and what with one thing and another I haven't really had the time for NW. Obviously I keep up with the models and have a quick look at the thread if something interesting has been showing. So I've been following the thread for a few days now and I really cannot help noticing that the same mistakes are being made with this cold opportunity as with every other one over the last 10 or 11 years that I've been following the models and this thread. And it's this, synoptic projections evolve over time, each run has the latest data and every run is going diverge from the last, increasingly so from zero hour. There is no such concept of will this run verify, it's a meaningless idea. 144hr plus GHs or Scandia highs are just so much puff pastry, of little or no substance. A short wave here, a short wave there, features a 100 miles further north, south, east or West and what we get on our tiny spot on the edge of the Atlantic will change dramatically. It happens every run, every day of the week, all year round. But come a little offering of a bit of cold and snow and all too many people seem to expect it to just progress from 120 hrs plus to zero hour in a smooth and easy fashion like a boat on a mill pond. And when it doesn't then they are disappointed and depressed, it never ceases to amaze me. My advice with this little cold spell is wait and see., it's certainly synoptically one of the most interesting evolving patterns I think I have seen for a good few years and it could go several ways, plenty to play for in my view and better than the dross of the last month. On the subject of the ECMs easterly, I've yet to see it spot one before the GFS does, still there is always a first time.

Can't see why anyone should be surprised by the 06z the last two GFS runs have hinted at the vortex getting far enough north to allow this kind of more favourable elongated MLB to form. The question now is can we keep a level of support for this and will the inevitable changes over the next few days in its evolution benefit us. We need it as far north as possible, if it sinks then we wind up on the wrong side. Overall though this is a relatively subtle change as a MLB over or close to the UK has been the theme of the operationals for days , there has been no real sign of a return to Atlantic mobility. The biggest shame so far, is that for many of us all we have seen so far is mostly cold rain or snow that fails to lay.

Some interesting output from the GFS 18z and 12z could of course be complete red herrings but very encouraging.

Not a bad 12z GFS and a hint of the possibility of a shift in the vortex that may allow heights to build a bit more where we want them.

I would say that we should do that all the time anyway Nick as they are always subject to much revision. But we can only really speculate on what's in front of us and that seems pretty clear to me and has done for days, by next weekend HP will be sitting over or close to the UK. We have one of those curious times when we are seeing lots of small changes for the first few days of Feb which will have a large impact in the hunt for snow but they all keep leading to that Azores high over or close to the UK by the weekend. The OPs seem pretty clear on that and the ensembles are their usual pin the tail on the donkey. If the OPs are wrong then guess a clear trend on the ensembles that lasts for more than 24hrs, if that.

All gone very sleety here, hardly crisp and fresh and even more like a horrible soggy mess. My message is simple if it can't snow properly then don't bother to try at all.

Amazing because that's what the OPs have been showing in the main for days now, give me the OPs any day over the ensembles they are as much use as a marzipan crowbar most of the time.

South-South west

Yep after a brief lull its snowing hard here again.

Not at all we are near Coningsby and quite low lying

Indeed it is, just taken out of the bedroom window

Well it does look like we will pick up an easterly feed for a while but rather like yesterday the method to get there keeps changing in detail. However, by the end of the week we still end up with the Azores high sitting just off the western approaches it seems almost set in stone that that will be the situation at the end of the week. Subsequently the shape orientation and proximity of that high will dictate our weather next weekend. In the mean time it's snowing hard here.

It would appear to me that the upshot of every single run across the big three is no matter what route is taken to get there we end up with a large HP in the western approaches, all routes lead to the same place for us.

Mushy speaks a lot of sense there but WIB I don't think so his prognosis was an end by the start of the week. The truth is the weather makes monkeys of us all, and as I said earlier a week is a long time in synoptic evolutions that's why we keep coming back. In truth if the day ever comes where the models get much better at predicting beyond a couple of days, say 5 or 7, then that will be the day when threads like this will die.

At the moment I would say we do have good consensus from the models and that being. 1. Colder conditions will persist for another 7 days, give or take 2. The high will topple and end up over or just to our west 3. getting blocking in the right place for the type of easterly we want to see seems highly unlikely no matter how often the ensembles might point that way, This is not to say that during the week ahead there will not be an easterly component to our weather but nothing that involves HLB where we want it However we should also keep it in mind that a week is an awful long time in synoptic evolution and things can swing very rapidly.

Yes let's not forget that last nights 18z was an absolute disaster of a run, operationals and ensembles swing like a key swapping party.

Usually what happens is an easterly appears on the models and slowly but surely we inch away from it. However this time it may be that we are inching towards one.

Looks a little further East to me gibby but I could be wrong, one thing for sure some people are going to end up disappointed, many maybe.