Costa Del Fal

Really quite humid feel to things here with very warm hazy sunshine.

Thought I would throw in my two pence worth! Very low risk tonight in my opinion. Fairly good agreement across the model suits of some organised precipitation brushing west Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly towards Ireland overnight. Could be some heavy bursts but I have my doubts re: proper thundery weather. Not much instability aloft it seems and it is not really until tomorrow that the core of the theta-e plume reaches us. Cooling air high above and lowering heights as the low pressure encroaches ever so closer may favour a little something as warm air continues to be drifted up. However I cannot really see anything to shout actual thunderstorms; more the odd flash and rumble at best, rather like recent blitzortung maps are showing around the Bay of Biscay/Iberia. <20% risk for any proper thunderstorms in my opinion. The best risk being for the Scilly Isles and Ireland. Early tomorrow morning, a few showers/cells may initiate somewhat further East and/or drift up from N France but again a low risk and not really worthy of much discussion in my opinion. Nonetheless perhaps a little precipitation for Devon, Somerset and perhaps Bristol/Gloucs, Herefordshire and S Wales. But again thunder risk <20% imo, perhaps even <10%. I think the best interest of the weekend will be tomorrow afternoon. Some outputs look quite dry for Sunday at present, even though some charts such as CAPE advertise decent instability. The question tomorrow will be how much break in the cloud there will be but quite a few models going for initiation in the S Midlands and S Wales. Pretty much north of the M4 being a good guideline. The eastern most extent of this remains an issue. Some models like the NMM favouring something for the E Midlands but best agreement looks to have a focus mostly Leicester and westwards in my opinion. I am particularly interested in an area of convergence which looks to set up over the W Midlands region tomorrow afternoon (late on/early evening) as this may provide a focus and additional forcing to utilise the instability and surface heating. Hi res models like the NMM and Arome going for this. Exact placements inevitably likely to change but pretty good agreement on the best chances of something occuring being around here and then drifting north/north north westwards towards N Wales and NW England. Parts of Yorkshire and areas around the Pennines such as Leeds not without question of something either but as earlier comments here and elsewhere have suggested, somewhere around Cheshire/Wirral towards Lancashire probably at a good shout of something. I am a little doubtful however as to how widespread some models are showing precipitation to be and I would not be surprised if activity (if any of course!) is quite well scattered, even isolated, particularly away from regions of convergence. Cloud cover etc all making an impact. Any events from overnight tonight may make key differences too. Nonetheless, whilst some elements such as shear are not particularly favourable, any thunderstorms could be fairly intense for a short while. Storms may not move overly fast either as upper winds don't look too strong. Not expecting much if any major organisation of storms. Certainly no July 3rd 2015 if you ask me but that is not to say if caught under a storm, it will not be potent for a bit. Perhaps highest risk areas tomorrow is a corridor running from Oxford towards Birmingham and Worcester, up towards Stafford/Shrewsbury then Chester with perhaps another focus being Derby, through towards Manchester and Lancashire. Activity perhaps starting to weaken by the time it reaches Cumbria. Perhaps a 3rd area of interest aided by uplift from the Brecon Beacons through towards Snowdonia way? All pure guesswork this bit but worth a guess anyway I feel. All storms generally fizzling by late evening. A low risk of some imports into southern England again overnight into Sunday, perhaps especially around Dorset and the IoW, which may drift NNW towards S Wales and the Midlands again but a pretty low risk that imo at the moment. All the above could end up totally wrong but I wish those looking for a thunderstorm the best of luck and for those who do not want one, a pleasant dry day!

Splendid out there even now. Still 13c or so. A night for keeping the windows open! Hello summer!

Already fast approaching 16c! Could be on for that 20c today! Outstanding conditions out there with just a little wispy high cloud. Very little wind so it already feels as warm as it maxed yesterday. The proper warm spell begins here! Enjoy! Could be pushing 25c on Sunday with enough sun!

Will take 25c very much thank you. Superb conditions. Could feel locally hot in the Midlands and SE should winds be light enough.

Have smelled a few bbq's on my travels this evening. A very pleasant day. Even better from here on in. Think we'll be having our first bbq on Saturday too. The good times are finally here!

The rain was very torrential here for 5 minutes or so earlier. Very difficult to drive in!

That's the 3rd thunderstorm to hit our area this week. Good start to the season! Never known a week with so much hail either!

3rd thunderstorm of this week now in the area.

Think I will up my guess to 11.3c please.

10.7c for me please.

Some of the largest hail I have ever seen during Tuesday. Often soft hail but it was large does sized if not slightly larger for a time during a thunderstorm at 7pm earlier. Shirt but quite intense with overhead lightning and thunder.

What a fantastic day of weather. Best northerly event for years! Daytime was mostly fine with warm sunshine (out of the cool wind of course) then multiple heavy soft hail/snow showers giving numerous temporary dustings and then 2 thunderstorms to top things off!! Some bright flashes and some pretty close with good deep rumbles of thunder! Excellent day!

What a fantastic day of weather. Best northerly event for years! Daytime was mostly fine with warm sunshine (out of the cool wind of course) then multiple heavy soft hail/snow showers giving numerous temporary dustings and then 2 thunderstorms to top things off!! Some bright flashes and some pretty close with good deep rumbles of thunder! The 7pm storm brought fantastic soft hail - it was pea sized and even slightly larger at times - largest hail I have ever seen! Excellent day!

Some light snow/soft hail showers here recently. Only brief though.

Far too cold today. This is ridiculous how Autumn/winter like temperatures look to eat more of our spring up.

20c was reached yesterday in Porthmadog , Wales. England has yet to reach this mind. Edit: Sorry Nick, just saw you beat me to this lol

Not sure April and August can be compared like for like when in April the continent and land masses are re warming after the winter. Thermal lag of the oceans etc too. The seas around us have just passed their coldest point. Besides was 15/16c yesterday and that was lovely in the strong sunshine. Perfectly average if not slightly above average conditions.

It's laughable how all of a sudden the cold seems to make its way to the uk so easily and pretty much only at the UK. A pattern likely to be hard to shift I feel. But today is the best day of the year so far. Wall to wall sun and very pleasant. Sunbathing time.

Outstanding out there. Have the day off today too so I am planning a little sun bathing from lunch time onwards.

An outstanding afternoon and evening here. Very very pleasant conditions. Looks superb wall to wall sunshine tomorrow (Wednesday) too then all downhill for sometime it seems. Will be gutted if this La Niña kicks in just in time for summer. We really do have the most frustrating luck/climate. Always the right Synoptics at the opposite time of year we want them.

Absolutely gorgeous afternoon and evening. Could even smell a couple of bbq's on my travels this evening. More like late spring/early summers evening if you ask me as it remained fairly mild. Tomorrow looks outstanding too but sadly that's where the good weather stops. Enjoy tomorrow!

Lovely warm sunny day here now. Tomorrow looks gorgeous too then rapidly downhill.

Just rain forecast here. Can't see much snow falling anyway. Precipitation is already east of here with only a few scraps to the north west. As usual the cold follows the rain. Bring back the warmth please.

If the cold pool in the Atlantic really is part of AMO becoming negative, we could be stuck in this for years to come! Hope not!