ANYWEATHER

For those hoping for a quick change to milder weather dont look at the latest outputs! With deep surface cold over much of NorthWestern Europe and the UK the battle lines are clearly drawn if one for instance looks at the latest gfs. It would not be a surprize to me that this coming week some places in the south of the Uk will be literally buried in deep deep snow, perhaps rivalling snowy Winters to the likes of 1947?! A THAW.?? It looks as though the 850s get mixed out and diluted a bit but with a contenental feed that should help most of the precip to be snow, although the far sw could see cold rain for a while. The very cold air right through the gfs run is never to far away from the uk so perhaps a new reload of artic air coming soon after the heavy snowfalls of the coming week.Whatever way you look at it this is "classic winter " stuff the likes of which the uk has not seen for decades, but a truly "forecasters nightmare" Enjoy if you can!!

MINUS 14.6C was recorded at my weather station at Evesham @2.30 this morning, making it the coldest temperature since 1982! It must be cold the river Avon and Isbourne have ice over some stretches!!

As noted at some point earlier. if you would of took the gfs as gospel in its luniticical/fantastical output the Winter would of ended weeks ago!!

Barely got above minus 3 c in the Evesham area today. I think tonight will be even colder in our area ,last night I recorded minus 12.4c I think we might see a minus 15c ,already minus 3 @3.20 and falling fast under clear skies and no wind!

Im still very confused as to where Sundays predicted snowfall and the warnings attatched to it have any merit ,because looking at it the fax chart it basically shows a weak front along the southern half of England and thats about it, I personally cant see how that would produce much if any snow let alone widespread snow.....Am I missing something??

Cant see any respite from the cold in the model output for the forseeable future even if the 850 mbs temps will slowly moderate for a few days as the surface temps are extremely low here and over in the continent and as the air and surface winds will be blowing from an easterly direction over ice and snow it will be bitterly cold especially in the windier south of the Uk! Anyway talking of cold at my weather station its currently minus 12.3c ,exceptionally cold :lol: :lol:

Just been out in the garden and between 8 to 10 inches of snow....! depending on where you measure...best snow in years and its not going to melt!!! :unsure:

Whether this is a "jinx" or not but on Radio 4 earlier ,John Kettley was interviewed and said it may be the coldest Winter since the early 80,s no sign of any letup....!

Look at the much colder 850 temps mate, certainly cold enough for coastal snow...

Well if this synoptic situation early next week does not provide snowstorms for the south ..."I WILL FLASH MY ASS IN THE NEAREST WINDOW OF A SUPERMARKET"!!! :o

On another "positive " note when the precipitation becomes heavier, this process will kick in the "Evaporative Cooling" effect in , so therefore the precip draging the cold air down to low levels, no reason why no one wont see any snow and it settling in the hours ahead even if youre on low ground!

It was a recording ...BBC NEWS OFTEN do this with there weather forecasts!

The Met Office have increased there warning for Tuesday to the high risk category for Central England and Wales, although they have the darker shading for central Wales but even the southern Counties are "now" in a warning. Hard one to call as always and its more than easy to get "egg on your face" when forecasting snow but hopefully it will be "snow on your face" especially for the majority of Wales and the West Midlands....... :excl:PS I expect there will be even more changes to come later today, the usual swapping and changing in these situations!

I really think this up coming winter weather will be memorable...a [CLASSIC] Winter synoptics just wait folks....!A struggle between mild and cold and guess what... SNOW FROST AND FOG OH ....ICE AS WELL reminds me of 1981/82 ...ok we shall see, but it really looks very good for Winter lovers.... and the cold WILL WIN!!!

Believe me...Ive seen synoptics like this in the way and distant past [70s and 80s] and the southern half of the UK gets a pasting, models will struggle with the finer details but believe me these are the best Winter weather synoptics in many many years

Two of the most difficult forecasts are trying to predict thunderstorms and "SNOW" !!I think the Midlands best chance is over the weekend when that cold front drops down and perhaps gives us some frontal snow for a time [backedge] :lol: :lol: :blush:

The 12Z ecm shows the cold lingering across the Uk right into the Holiday season....

Its right to remember that the models often tease us this time of year with an "epic" cold spell as they do every year and for Summer heatwaves too when we are in June and in reality they very seldom appear. Its not to say this one wont, but in imho the synoptics even in FI are really not there for anything Wintry and thats a bang in the face for anyone who wants some true Winter weather! It,ll come but probably have to wait to Jan Or Feb for that to happen....high pressure moving in from the south will probably give us cloudy even damp conditions at this time of year ,chilly ,but not cold and even the odd frost and fog pocket but there will be a lot of moisture tied in with any ridge moving North at this time of year.....so perhaps a respite for a while from the wind and rain.....

Im not sure its worth talking about anything cold in the near future, apart from being up a Mountain in Scotland! What takes my fancy is the brutal onslaught of the Atlantic with these shortwaves making a prononced feature across the UK especially the West.I think very unsettled and at times stormy sums it up and the models are not looking an whole lot different from a month ago....ECM ...a storm to watch......?

Well the Metoffice was surprised at the development of this feature[not to mention everyone else in the weather world and take a look at the sat pic and see if its looks unusual?] and its still intact to the southwest of the Uk.. Lets see what happens...

Still not looking to bad at all with some nice tight circulation and something of an "EYE" showing on the infrared sat at 6pm!

What can you say about September, except its exceptional dryness.!! 10mms fell at the [VOEWS] and the average is 62mms and following a fairly dry August, so my garden is thirsty!! A pretty high pressure dominated month with a 1036.3mbs recorded on the 10th but 997.6mbs recorded on the 2nd. Highest temperature..24c on the 8th Lowest temperature..4.4c on the 11th Average daily temp..18.3c...recorded 19.2c Average night temp..10c....recorded 9.6c so a relatively average temperature month for September! :huh:

19.8c here today making it a 15c Diurnal range...not bad but Im sure someone somewhere can do better!! :huh:

Looks as though the Big Diurnal range will start from today, 3c in Oxfordshire, and a low at my weather station of 4.7 c ,will be interesting to see what temp we will reach today! :unsure:

Yep ,Ive tried looking for the stats, cant find them at the moment...but I seem to recall it was one of the biggest Diurnal temperature range ever recorded in the Uk. I will try and find the data, unless our very own "MR DATA" will beat me to it.....?? :o :lol: :lol: