ANYWEATHER

My thoughts on the next seven days is probably similar to the last seven days in terms of temps, warmest in the southeast, both ecm and gfs have got "something" of a thundery plume for next week, but as always it probably wont happen! Unsettled sums it up really , southeast best/northwest uk most unsettled..the "SeeSaw Summer" continues!

Vale of Evesham Summers in the past!

Windows of fine weather followed by spells of unsettled weather just about sums up the model outputs from ecm [which ive shown here]gfs as well!! in the outlook, weekend unfortunately looks very unsettled at this stage and the models have been very good at picking this up from some time back so a "feather" in the cap for these models which many of us "including myself" often critizise for the dodgy outputs.....

Yep, the memorable thing that day was a huge thunderstorm, cant say ive seen anything so "electrifying" since over our area the storms were right over head, and ive got all that action on video!

ERRR, gfs keeps showing that low for the end of the week ,the 06z shows it quickly replaced by high pressure, 12z shows the very unsettled weather continuing!!

Not a bad few days to come for southern Britain more unsettled in the North, but did think I might get the tent out this coming weekend ,but as been hinted for some time now, a very deep and unseasonable low influencing the whole of the UK as early as Friday,and the models if anything have increased the potency of that low....

Good Sunday folks. Most of this week will see the uk sitting between the Azores high to the south and the Icelandic lows to the north!This basically means a "westerly" airflow more unsettled to the north ,more settled conditions to the south. Even though we will be seeing a Westerly airflow, it wont be the fresh, cool airmass, it looks as though a lot of warm ,moist air will be circulating around the azores high, so even though southern and southeastern counties will see a lot of dry, cloudy weather, where the cloud does break it could turn out to be locally hot in one or two places, further north and west its more a case of some rain at times, the end of the week come Thurs sees a deep low winding itself towards the UK, one to keep our eyes on, gfs has it more of a "potent" feature than the ecm at this stage, but "could" scupper any outdoor activities by next weekend? ummmmgh!

A real "seesaw" of weather coming up in the next week judging by the models! High pressure does help to keep the weather fair especially for the south of the uk, but it does not stop the Atlantic having some play as well. Striking similaraties between the ecm and gfs right out to t168, not often you find that agreement betwwen to models so far out!

Both the big3 models right to the end of a more reliable time frame go for a pressure build ,especially for the south, BUT, it does show to as example on the fax chart here, that it wont stop bands of cloud and some rain even for the south to move across from time to time, so in essence, a brighter outlook further south you go , but still a changeable weather pattern!

Some discrepency as yet as ever with these situations, keeps your eyes in the next 24hrs on the rainfall radar and netweather is my best advice,,,,,hope that helps!

The cfs, shows the jet stream pushing over the northern half of the uk amd slipping down the eastern areas of England, a trend perhaps of at least more settled weather for at least the southwestern half of the uk ie south Wales, southwest England and central and south/southeastern England as the azores hogh tries to make an influence! Perhaps not perfect late Summer weather coming up but at least a little better for Summer activities in the "great outdooors!"

You will see the difference from four charts ,two from ecm and two from gfs t144 and t168 respectively ummmgh?

Yeah, good video, good time and good memories!

Maybe, Ecm shows more unsettled conditions for about the same timeframe...

It looks as though the gfs is now making more of that little trough moving north on Friday and the thundery rain is further west to, would not surprise me if that trend continues and brings some very heavy rain to many part of central and eastern England in picticular!

Ecm teases us with a pattern change, with the Azores high trying to flirt with the UK , but thats about as good as it gets! If this pattern pull off, then we are left in a rather cool, west to northwest airflow with rain bands moving into the west and north, although having said that ,like many times this year the southeast of England will get away with some half decent warmth and decent Summer weather,,,

Two areas of potentially very wet weather this week as fronts with some steep thermal gradients move only slowly east. Firsty a lot of warmth and moisture tied up with the fronts moving into the west today,and as you can see the 850mbs chart does show that and that warmth and moisture only slowly moving east across England more picticulary and even by Friday those fronts still be close to the east coast of England. As often the case, the fronts are likely to become stationery over the southern ,central, to ne England area so here risk of heavy rain Tues/to Thurs and that risk transfers further east by Fri and the risk of thunderstorms for eastern/and southeastern counties of England. Of course the "devil in the detail" scenario, certainly imho not a big outbreak of thunderstorms ,eastern england most at risk, but potentially some high rainfall totals in some areas by the end of the week. Outlook,from ecm and gfs seems to be Atlantic driven although the worst of the rainfall is likely in the north and west? The red on the uk map shows where I think most of the heaviest rainfall will be this week, the darker the red the heavier the rain...my take on it anyway!

Another very wet July here at the [VOEWS] at Evesham. A promising start with 31.7c recorded here on the 1st, but the rest is history, as rainfall fell on a good many days throughout the month! Average rainfall 52mms...recorded 129.1mms Lowest temperature 6.5c on the 10th Highest wind speed 26mph south on the 22nd Average day temp.21.7c...recorded 21.4c Average night temp 12.4c ...recorded 12.1c Cloud of the month....Lenticular..[AltoCumulus] nr Evesham.

Ok a little moan, I expect most folks are used to the amount of traffic in and around the London area! Im not...! Traveled down to the storm chase bbq at Pauls last Sunday [July 26th] did not get lost and the dreaded M25 was moving ..just..but you could hardly call it a sunday afternoon drive! As I dont use sat/nav and resort to the old fashioned AA road map and a pen and paper, I was quite chuffed with myself that I found it fairly easily! Had a fantastic time at the bbq and stayed overnight. Now Monday mornings is not the best of time to get in or out of the London area so I decided to give the M25 a miss and take the scenic route, if you can call it that! So I headed north and west via the towns of Chelmsford,, Harlow,St Albans and then to the wide open spaces of the Chilterns along the A41 which is a fairly nice drive and road and Ive never been on that road before so a new one for me, then over to Aylesbury, then over the backside of the Cotswolds. It took a good 5 hours or more for me to get home probably a good hour of that going round in circles around the towns roundabouts and another hour getting lost on the so called diversions and those diversions seem to be very common around that area! Anyway, my point, how much longer will the British roads more picticularly the southesat of England, will be able to have a road infra-structure to be able to cope with more and more traffic in the years to come? Not sure anyone will be going anywhere very quickly by then, and in my mind the answer is not to build new roads,in the long term it makes things worse...I dont know the answer, well except dont have a car, but we all need one of those and more often than not depend, on our motors, but sooner or later there will have to come a turning point.......!

Hi Paul, great quiz, but I did not have enough time to do it, so I will definately give it a go for the next one! Cheers Ian.

Th MetOffice are really getting some stick about the BBQ summer....I wonder Why? :blush: Philip Eden rightly said that there is nothing wrong with seasonal forecasts but what is wrong is the media hype such as this BBQ summer mentioned on April 30th this year. I for one take no notice whatsoever of sensational,media spin, but some of the general public do.! I bet the met office had smiles allround at the start of Summer because although June did not have so called "perfect Summer weather" in all fairness it was not too bad and certainly ample good weather to bbq especially in the south and east of the uk. But its gone horribly wrong now, I hope there wont be any more sensational news headlines in the near future as regards Summer/Winter forecast [im sure there will though!] and hopefully who ever was ultamately responsable for that has learned a lesson! Nothing wrong with seasonal forecasts at all only when they are sensationalised or hyped up...and it lots of ways it was not the met office fault....media to blame as everything is blown out of proportion!

Looks as though this area will see the heavy rain, in excess of 2inches in one or two locations and a wide area of this area getting between half to one inch [12 to 25mms] Looks as though two areas of developing small troughs will develop along this waving front which will slow its progress east....

Yes Pat, I just hope we get some in the near future......

WHATS NEW.....!!!