[Ireland Regional Discussion - Autumn 2013]

Not great with charts so can you explain the December chart for me. High in the Atlantic, high over Russia and squeezing cold air down from the Arctic?

 

They're the upper level height anomalies, which can be useful for picking out the general pattern, such as the location of troughs and ridges with the jet stream.

 

In that December chart, the suggestion would be for the jet stream to ridge towards Greenland, then turn south just to our west, leaving a large trough over western Europe. This would encourage more northerly winds across the British Isles, with a tendency for high pressure to form to our west and low pressure to the east. With the trough/low pressure nearby, we'd likely get a good amount of precip, despite the increase in northerly winds.

Overall, December is looking average/cool and wet. Whether or not it gets cold enough for that extra precip to turn to snow is something we won't know until it's just before it happens. But I think there is good potential.

 

I'll be posting a full winter forecast next month, and things should be a little more certain then.

[Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread]

Considering the record high is 13c and I am at 55N it is pretty much impossible. 

 

Is the the record high for your personal station, or an official station nearby?

[Ireland Regional Discussion - Autumn 2013]

The teleconnection based composites I've been using this year for forecasting have worked well, they suggest a return to more settled condition for November

 

 

Here's what things what's being suggested for December at this stage

 

[October forecasts -- 2013 C.E.T. Competition]

With a minimum of 8.4C and maximum of around 15.5C, we should remain on 12.9C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS op run has the CET around

13.0C to the 19th (15.1)

13.1C to the 20th (14.6)

13.2C to the 21st (14.7)

13.3C to the 22nd (15.5)

13.3C to the 23rd (14.2)

13.3C to the 24th (13.7)

13.4C to the 25th (15.6)

 

I'd say a 50/50 chance of ending up with a top 10 warmest CET before corrections

[The Seasonal Forecast Thread]

I thought I'd give an update on the Autumn forecast now that the data is available again.

 

I think September turned out quite well, and October is very much going to plan.

 

I'm going to change November though as the teleconnection trends suggest more of a high pressure influence, with a strong north Atlantic ridge and the low heights to our north (forecast back in August) weakening and retreating.

So the general pattern will change from:

 

this

 

to this

 

With the trough across south west Europe and the ridge leaning over the British Isles, this set up may increase the chances of an easterly flow across southern England, and with that, average or slightly below average temperatures there.  Further west and north suggests generally average, perhaps slightly above.

Precip is likely to be slightly below average to the west and average or slightly above in the east.

 

 

I've begun looking ahead to Winter also, and there seems to be a good signal for a mid Atlantic ridge and low heights to our east. Something of a reversal of the general pattern since June which has featured strong heights over Scandinavia.

I'll give a full Winter forecast next month though.

[Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread]

With the US Government shutdown finishing up, more data is becoming available.

 

It looks like the +ve upper ocean heat anomalies in the tropical Pacific have switched rapidly to -ve anomalies as a cold upwelling kelvin wave begins to exert an influence

 

.

 

This should help in keep things neutral through the winter, rather than the borderline El Nino being forecast by the CFS.

[Arctic Ice Discussion 2013-14: the refreeze...]

A sea ice extent increase of 170,836km2 on IJIS for the 17th, which is a record large extent increase for that date based on the 2002 to 2012 data.

 

Daily extent change

[Snow and Ice in the Northern Hemisphere 2013/14]

A sea ice extent increase of 170,836km2 on IJIS for the 17th, which is a record large extent increase for that date based on the 2002 to 2012 data.

 

More of that and we might be justified in calling this a great refreeze!

 

Daily sea ice extent change for October

[October forecasts -- 2013 C.E.T. Competition]

Going by the 12z GFS op run, the CET will be around

 

13.0C to the 17th (12.5)

12.9C to the 18th (12.2)

13.0C to the 19th (14.8]

13.1C to the 20th (14.3)

13.1C to the 21st (13.2)

13.2C to the 22nd (15.9)

13.2C to the 23rd (11.9)

13.1C to the 24th (12.2)

 

I'd put the likely range after corrections a touch higher than SomeLikeItHot, about 11.5 to 13.3C

 

[IPCC climate report 2013]

Seven-of-Nine, too?

 

Not quite yet, only just reaching Borg territory!

[IPCC climate report 2013]

Nom problem BFTV, can I get back to you on this as I'm now enjoying the delights of a nice bottle of Cabernet Sauvignon. The bloggers comment was in cheek.

 

Enjoy SI. No booze for me tonight. I've Captain Janeway and the Voyager crew to keep me entertained though

[IPCC climate report 2013]

Thanks for the rather patronising link on sceptics. Onwards and upwards though, the data from the 3000 buoys still doesn't give you an accurate representation of the temps for the very reasons I cited. Like I've stated until scientist can find all this missing heat, something by the way a leading sceptic claimed anyway ( Stephen Wilde ) then all this talk of hide and seek heat content is nothing more than a bloggers theory which you candidly state is not science.

 

It's from realclimate, not my own. Sorry you found it patronising.

 

So despite that thousands scientists think the argo floats are fine, that the oceans are accumulating heat and that the data is good, you believe the argo floats are useless, the missing heat simply cannot be found, and all the scientific evidence that goes against your idea is just a bloggers theory? That doesn't seem right, surely?

 

 

BFTV and othersI,

 

As SIis unavailable, I will attempt to put what I think are is questions about the accuracy of the temperature readings into context.

Over the last 7 days I have done a bit of reading around the sublect (including BFTV's reference as well as the recent Judith Curry report and bloggs and work presented by Landscheif et al).

 

My problem and I think SI's is that it is known that the top 700meters have warmed by an average of 0.4C. I dont dispute the figures  by the way.

 

I have seen figures on realclimate wihich say that this if averaged out of the top 2000meters  gives an average warming of only 0.04C....

 

But the intersting figure I have seen quoted was an average of 0.009C if the estimated total ocean content is included.

Furthermore it is reported that under high pressure (the  very bottom of the southern hemiphere depths are taken into account)  this average averages out at a warming of only 0.001 - 0.003C when averaged out over the total volume. This is because apparently that the specific heat of water increases rapidly under high pressure and density.

 

So my question is  Can ARGOS record values of this order of magnitude? How do we measure the changes at these amazing depths? Particularly as the report you have included suggests that heat is transported easily through water?.

 

 

Midlands Ice Age

 

Hi MIA,

The argo floats only measure down to 2,000m, the deeper ocean data comes from other sources and the trends aren't quite as robust.

There are over 3,000 argo floats out there, so the small error (argo website says +/-0.005C here) for an individual float gets largely cancelled out when you average the millions of readings. Over time, you can also build up the trends too, because to even cause a fraction of a degree of warming in the water down to 2,000m requires huge amounts of energy.

World ocean heat content and thermosteric sea level change (0–2000 m), 1955–2010

 

 

Another way of looking at ocean heat accumulation is by examining the sea level record. Most of the sea level rise is due to thermal expansion as the oceans accumulate heat. Sea level rise has been accelerating over the over the last century, which implies and growing accumulation of heat also.

[October forecasts -- 2013 C.E.T. Competition]

And we were doing so well. Just when I thought 2013 looked as if it may stand a chance of ending up below average we have a run of above average months that look set to ruin everything. And the worst part of it is that October could well be a record breaker, not in a cold way. We could quite easily break even with the cold start to the year by the end of this month. And I bet November and December will be mild too. To finish off 2013's chances of ending up below average, this is bound to happen.

 

Depends on what average we're comparing to.

 

If October finishes at 12.5C (joint 10th warmest on record), we'd still need November and December to average 3.3C above the 81-10 average just to get above the 81-10 annual average of 10.0C. So we'll definitely be below that!

For the 61-90 annual average (9.5C), 0.3C above for November and December will take us to 9.6C for the year, while 0.3C below will take us to 9.4C for the year.

 

With that in mind, an annual value within 0.1C of the 61-90 average seems most likely at this stage, so still a cool one by recent standards.

[Arctic Ice Discussion 2013-14: the refreeze...]

Based on IJIS data, we have actually fallen behind 2006 and 2008 in the last few days, so perhaps the refreeze isn't quite as impressive as some think.

 

We are still 1.72 million sq km ahead of 2012 but I expect that gap to close rapidly in the next few days. 2012 gained 1.4 million sq km in the corresponding week ahead last year, which might well be the fastest rate of refreeze over 7 days ever observed.

 

The 5 day average increase has just dropped below the 2002-2012 average also. A good increase so far, but nothing exceptional.

[IPCC climate report 2013]

Indeed I do, as the oceans as well as being vast are deep also and Argo just isn't up to the task of measuring this missing heat. If it was them the heat wouldn't be missing now, would it. Measuring the top 700m shows us whatever exactly?

 

So you don't think it's capable of doing the job it was intended to do? Yet the many studies and thousands of scientists think it works just fine.

 

The 0.1C uncertainty (have you a link for that) doesn't apply when averaged out over 3,000 floats, it just doesn't work like that.

 

How to deny data

 

Ideologically motivated “climate skeptics†know that these data contradict their claims, and respond … by rejecting the measurements. Millions of stations are dismissed as “negligible†– the work of generations of oceanographers vanish with a journalist’s stroke of a pen because what should not exist, cannot be. “Climate skeptics’†web sites even claim that the measurement uncertainty in the average of 3000 Argo probes is the same as that from each individual one.  Thus not only are the results of climate research called into question, but even the elementary rules of uncertainty calculus that every science student learns in their first semester.

 

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2013/09/what-ocean-heating-reveals-about-global-warming/

 

I have seen this theory before

 

How does 'the wind' directly effect the oceans at 700m to 2000m ?. The graph you have , which I assume you have altered shows if I believe I am correct a section of the ocean such as the width of the Atlantic.

 

I could be 40m under water and not feel a Hurricane, so how does this work ? I can see 'wind' mixing up surface water but ?

 

Its just a question

 

The graph comes from the realclimate page which we both linked to in the past. It's also similar to how ENSO operates.

 

The ocean is known to be thermally stratified, with a warm layer, some hundreds of meters thick, lying on top of a cold deep ocean (a).  In the real world the transition is more gradual, not a sharp boundary as in the simplified diagram.  Panel b shows what happens if the wind is turned on. The surface layer (above the dashed depth level) becomes on average colder (less red), the deep layer warmer.  The average temperature changes are not the same (because of the different thickness of the layers), but the changes in heat content are – what the upper layer loses in heat, the lower gains. The First Law of Thermodynamics sends greetings.

 

Incidentally, that is the well-known mechanism of El Niño: (a) corresponds roughly to El Niño (with a warm eastern tropical Pacific) while b is like La Niña (cold eastern tropical Pacific). The winds are the trade winds.  The figure greatly exaggerates the slope of the layer interface, because in reality the ocean is paper thin.  Even a difference of 1000 m across the width of the Pacific (let’s say 10,000 km) leads to a slope of only 1:10,000 – which no one could distinguish from a perfectly horizontal line without massive vertical exaggeration.

 

Now if during the transition from (a) to b the upper layer is heated by the greenhouse effect, its temperature could remain constant while that of the lower one warmed.

 

 

Info on ENSO, to show how it's similar http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/history/ln-2010-12/three-phases-of-ENSO.shtml

[IPCC climate report 2013]

Lol, because they haven't found any and I highly doubt they will, still until we can have closure on this I won't rule it out entirely just yet.

 

But they have?

 

 

Do you think the data is false then?

[IPCC climate report 2013]

They aren't when looking for lost heat content BFTV.

 

Could you explain a bit further? How are they not any good for that?

[IPCC climate report 2013]

Is there a difference when trying to find the unfindable?

 

We have instruments on the argo floats to help find that particular unfindable. Is it that you think they aren't of any use?

[October forecasts -- 2013 C.E.T. Competition]

With a min today of 6.2C, and maxima likely to reach the high 13s, a drop to 13.0C is likely tomorrow.

 

After that, the 06z GFS op run has the CET at

13.0C to the 17th (13.1)

13.0C to the 18th (13.1)

13.1C to the 19th (15.5)

13.2C to the 20th (14.9)

13.3C to the 21st (14.2)

13.4C to the 22nd (16.0)

13.4C to the 23rd (14.2)

 

The ensembles show a slight cool down after that, so a finish in the mid 12s before corrections seems likely at this stage imo.

 

Daily mean CET values so far. Still just the 1 day below average.

 

[Ireland Regional Discussion - Autumn 2013]

24.5mm of rain overnight, a little minor flooding about but nothing too bad.

[Snow and Ice in the Northern Hemisphere 2013/14]

Sea ice extent has dropped below 2008 now on IJIS, but we're still 1.7 million km2 above 2012.

 

Over the next 7 days, 2012 grew by over 200k/day, so it will be tough to stay far ahead.

[IPCC climate report 2013]

As for the IPCC's take on the elusive missing heat, and the supposed uncertainty about the oceans...

 

It is virtually certain that the upper ocean (above 700 m) has warmed from 1971 to 2010, and likely that it

has warmed from the 1870s to 1971 (Figure TS.1). There is less certainty in changes prior to 1971 because

of relatively sparse sampling in earlier time periods. Instrumental biases in historical upper ocean

temperature measurements have been identified and mitigated since AR4, reducing artificial decadal

variation in temperature and upper ocean heat content, most prominent during the 1970s and 1980s. {3.2.1,

3.2.2, 3.2.3, 3.5.3}

It is likely that the ocean warmed between 700 and 2000 m from 1957 to 2010, based on five-year averages.

It is likely that the ocean warmed from 3000 m to the bottom from 1992 to 2005, when sufficient

observations became available for a global assessment. No significant trends in global average temperature

were observed between 2000 and 3000 m depth for either overlapping time period. The largest changes in

deep ocean temperature have been observed close to the sources of deep and bottom water in the northern

North Atlantic and especially in the Southern Ocean with anomaly amplitudes lessening along the routes

through which these waters spread....

...The rate of ocean warming in some of the 0–700 m estimates was lower from 2003 to 2010 than in the

previous decade (Figure TS.1); however, warming in the subsurface layer between 700 and 2000 m likely

continued unabated during this period.

 

 

 

Then from the climate scientists over at realclimate with the latest data

 

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2013/09/what-ocean-heating-reveals-about-global-warming/

 

People think the slow down in warming over the last 15 years is important, yet they said nothing when the warming was faster than expected in the 15 years to 2006.

[IPCC climate report 2013]

I am still wading through the umpteen pages and graphs, charts etc. You lot must be fast readers, unless, heaven forbid, some are 'cherry picking' bits out!

 

Most opinions here are going off the summary report for policy makers (or were formed well before its release...). I'm still gradually getting through the full report myself!

[IPCC climate report 2013]

Well one thing stands out like a sore thumb: if the oceans have been warming up at some 50²² Joules since 1995 then why has climate science, apparently, pretty much ignored it until the plateau in temperatures? That's some 50²² W/s !! Hunting for the horse because someone forgot to bolt the stable door?

 

Perhaps a clue lies in your use of the word "apparently"!

[Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread]

As others may have noticed, there's been quite a change in the CFS charts for November in recent days.

 

 

An explanation for the chart is here

 

The 5 day mean has now dipped below 0 (indicating more low pressure to the north). The trend has gone much more strongly downward. A temporary blip or the beginning of a trend towards a more zonal November (which would certainly help with my November forecast!)?