BornFromTheVoid
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Posts posted by BornFromTheVoid
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Yeah but yesterday the CET was 13.2c to the 26th and 2.2 above average
Today its 13.1c to the 27th so it can't be 2.3c above average
This table might help
...Date ........ 61-90 Rolling Average ..... 2013 Rolling Average...... Difference
25/10/13................10.977.................................13.136.........................+2.159 (2.2C)
26/10/13................10.929.................................13.173.........................+2.244 (2.2C)
27/10.13................10.877.................................13.133.........................+2.256 (2.3C)
Basically, the fall in the long term rolling average was slightly larger than the fall in the 2013 rolling average, which allowed the gap between the two to increase from 2.2C to 2.3C, despite a drop in this months CET.
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EUMETSAT view of Etna
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Another update for the CFS blocking graphs, and explanation for how they were made can be found here http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77743-winter-20132014-forecastshopesdiscussion-thread/page-117#entry2806211
Here is the graph for November, the y axis shows the strength of SLP anomalies to our north based on the 12z CFS. The blue bars are the daily value and the red line is the 10 days mean and the trend is in black.
The 10 day mean reached its low point on Monday, and has since slowly climbed back to neutral.
Over the last 7 days, 2 runs have show -ve SLP anomalies to our north, 2 have shown neutral and 3 have shown positive. This is an improvement on the previous 7 days, but still offers little in the way of a useful signal for November.
Below is the December graph
The 10 day mean has remained in the weak blocking category since this time last week.
The last 7 days have seen 2 runs with -ve SLP anomalies to our north, none with neutral and 5 with positive, which still suggests a blocked December is most likely on the cards. The long term trend is now pointing downward though, so we'll have to see if that continues in the coming week.
March remains very consistent, now with just 2 out of 42 runs showing -ve SLP anomalies to our north.
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Thanks for the Reply BFTV. Good what you said about the PAO. Still wonder how much light energy noctilucent clouds can reflect back into space especially as suns rays strike Arctic skies at a more oblique angle. I am convinced the level of Solar activity is what drives all these other factors. We are a the peak of a very weak cycle and may be entering a grand minima. the evidence for low Solar activity and the link to global cooling with bitter winters seems to grow stronger each year. I think 2012 was a blip and that the Arctic has alreafy turned the corner and will be in much better shape five years from now.
Given that the low solar activity summers of 2007 to 2012 were dominated with -ve AO and NAO months (which warms the Arctic), if lower solar activity does cause these -ve AO and NAO patterns, a grand minima would not be a very good thing for the sea ice.
Still, however doubtful I may be, I do hope you're right and that we turned the corner toward long term recovery avenue this year!
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Apologies then BFTV, maybe I should have read your post from beginning to end.
No worries SI. These things tend to happen online!
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I simply mentioned England as Scotland's green policy wouldn't work here due to the demand our far more numerous population would place on such a scheme. It's about being realistic and fossils fuels are still our only solution, that is unless we are willing to invest in nuclear but it appears that ship has long gone due to no investment over the last 20+ years.
That articles was about Scotland. I never made any comparison with England, yet you said
Come off it comparing Scotland's energy demands with England's is simply not realistic
even though I never made any comparison with England or claimed that Scotlands energy policy would work for England.
I agree, it would be much tougher for England to follow Scotlands energy path, which is why I never made the comparison. But for Scotland, the renewable are doing great and they already have off-shore oil and gas. They simply have no need for fracking!
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Meaning what works in a sparsely populated area is like comparing apples with oranges elsewhere. Like it or not our very existence is dependent on fossil fuels and until we find the right balance between a cleaner and infinite replacement then that dependency will continue.
I didn't mention England or give any comparison with England, so why do you keep saying I did?
You made the comment that
notions of green energy should stay in the realms of fantasy, until such a time the technology can provide us with the same living standards we have come to expect.
Do you think Scotland has a poor standard of living because of their renewable energy use?
Do you really believe our very existence depends on fossil fuels?
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Come off it comparing Scotland's energy demands with England's is simply not realistic, until we see a viable and profitable alternative to fossil fuels then all romantic notions of green energy should stay in the realms of fantasy, until such a time the technology can provide us with the same living standards we have come to expect.
What are you on about? I didn't mention England
?Scotland gets nearly 40% of it's electricity from renewables and their standard of living seems fine to me...
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So we now have a viable back up plan to fossil fuels..........Errrr!!
Scotland is doing incredibly well with renewable energy and off-shore oil/gas. Best they don't go destroying their beautiful landscape and clean environment with fracking.
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Wow, what can you say to that attitude.
More sense than 99.9% of the posts and comments on WUWT.
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A min of 9.7 and maxima in the mid 14s today, should put the CET back to 13.1C on tomorrows update.
After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at
13.1C to the 28th (11.4)
12.9C to the 29th (8.7)
12.8C to the 30th (8.8]
12.7C to the 31st (10.9)
No lower than 12.6C before corrections I'd say, which puts my 12.0C guess out of the running!
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Scotland to block fracking on environmental grounds
Paul Wheelhouse, the Scottish environment and climate change minister, has said there are “no environmental permissions which would allow hydraulic fracturing (fracking) in Scotland at this timeâ€.
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I believe some are again trying to push for explanations as a means of deriding the poster. I believe what JP has posted is clear and doesn't need further explanation. Rather than asking 'what do you really think' posts perhaps people should properly read the post.
I agree with John there is a lot we don't understand about the natural element of how our climate works and one of those is volcanic activity during low solar cycles. One theory is that the earths mantel is agitated and warmed during low solar cycles which leads to increased volcanic activity which includes under sea volcanoes.
I am and continue to believe our past warming and now cooling phase is down to solar cycles and not CO2
Keep up the good work John
Politely asking for an explanation is far from deriding someone. I could go through each link and statement, point by point, and ask for an explanation where things appear contradictory, but as that didn't work when I last tried it, it seems pointless to do it again. Hence, a post from John explaining his thinking in his own words would be very helpful here.
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sorry guys
i am really busy with other things at present so struggling to
do what i normally do
will post a different version of main post and explain in more detail
where it links with the climate but may take a while to re do this
regards
john
a question for you lot though
do you not see any link re nature and climate ?
I look forward to that post John.
To answer your question, I don't think you'll find a single person on here that doesn't think nature has a strong relationship with climate.
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Hi guys, new member here. Looking good for snow this year when looking at all the different forces coming into play that will be good to discuss in future posts. For now, does anyone think that record amounts of Noctilucent clouds in 2013 helped keep the Arctic cooler thus preserving more sea ice and giving us good start to the winter?
Welcome to the forum Blozzel.
I think the mainly positive Arctic Oscillation during the summer helped to increased the cloud cover and and hold the cold over the Arctic. It's hard to say what impact the noctulucent clouds hard, but an interesting question. While we have seen a big increase in sea ice extent on last year, it was still the 6th lowest extent on record and is still currently the 6th lowest for the time of year, so similar to years such as 2006 and 2008.
Whether or not that will give us a good start to the winter remains to be seen. We can hope though!
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thats fine
if you cannot see how this can cause an effect thats your opinion and your entitled to it
i posted this as a favour as i do not try to push natural feedbacks on people
but to ignore nature as i keep seeing well in my mind is silly
anyway my last post here as i really do not have time to do these long winded posts
if you read again what i posted you may understand
to be honest without sounding nasty is not my problem
All that's being asked is that you post up your own opinion. Your mix of quotes, images and links aren't very clear in its message, and often seem contradictory and irrelevant, so the point you're trying to make gets somewhat lost.
None of this is meant to offend, but a post just from yourself, explaining the relationship you see between tectonic activity and current climate change, would help us a lot, especially to see your perspective on things
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Minimum today of 12.7C, while maxima look like reaching the high 15s, so an increase to 13.1C is likely tomorrow.
After that, the 06z GFS has the CET around
13.1C to the 27th (12.0)
13.1C to the 28th (12.6)
13.0C to the 29th (8.4)
12.8C to the 30th (8.9)
12.8C to the 31st (11.0)
I'd say 12.5 to 12.9 before corrections, 12.0 to 12.8 after.
0.1C short of the daily record yesterday.
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But it's fine to label sceptics misleaders, talk about double standards!
We're all sceptics. Ye need some other name.
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I see no reason to backdown on my stance that this is nothing more than the usual assumptions and conjecture and yet the clock is ticking and the globe isn't responding to rising CO2 levels, nows that's factual not an assumption so tell me again who is misleading who.
The globe is responding in numerous ways to rising CO2 levels.
The oceans are heating, the air is temperatures are rising, the stratosphere is cooling, oxygen levels are falling, the oceans are acidifying, polar vegetation is expanding, etc,etc. So yes, what you're saying is very much misleading.
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If this isn't in the right place feel free to move it.I'm looking for average wind data that I can use alongside the CET figures - is there such a thing?
Do you mean for the CET area specifically?
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I see no evidence to back up such a claim BFTV so my comment still stands as assumptions and conjecture are not evidence, but as ever time will tell but I wouldn't wager any monies on this particular theory.
fishthekiller500 posted links, maps and evidence.
I don't necessarily agree with the methane runaway global warming idea, but if I was going to dismiss it I'd
1) make it clear where the fault lies in the data and evidence he posted
2) provide evidence to the contrary
You and 4wd have done neither of these, but just used a broad, generalised dismissal that could be applied in any argument in any topic. They do little to help with any debate, and make ye come across as ignorant of the subject and somewhat of an a-hole.
Just to be clear, I'm not calling ye a-holes, but when broad dismissals and baseless accusations of alarmism, and fear peddling for profit, are yer counterarguments, then that's exactly how ye come across.
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It matters not 4wd as I'm sure some will profit from pedalling this "alleged" threat.
Why not post a reasonable explanation of why the information posted by fishthekiller500 is wrong, rather than resorting to accusations of alarmism and pedalling alleged threats for profit?
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Ireland Regional Discussion - Autumn 2013
in Regional
Posted
The models certainly aren't indicating any cold at the moment, with a mix of average and above average days. If we are to see a pattern change, the signs generally begin to appear at the t144 to t192 range, the odd time a little further out.
No hint of it at the moment though.