Number 23

As this seems to be inching toward the reliable with cross-model agreement on the broad pattern and hefty ensemble support, can anyone comment on the potential small-scale features cropping up within the +96 period which can cut off or weaken the cold flow? If so, are there specific areas where this is most likely? I ask this as a long time lurker who knows an extreme chart when I see one, but not great at the more nuanced stuff. Cheers.

I occasionally like to go on the express pages and point out what nonsense they're writing about deep cold, but on this occasion I think I'll pass. Still would wait until tomorrow pm to be absolutely confident but it seems to be inevitable now.

Blimey... If that ECM run comes off it's going to evoke memories of '91. Still skeptical until we see this at +72, but surely a 75% chance of something severe emerging now. Imagine the fallout if it goes wrong...

Some variations on the general theme emerging now. Would have been very surprised to see those extreme solutions across the board just slot into the reliable without some output which delays or tempers the depth or timing for the uk. I expect more of the same for at least the next few days. It was never going to get much more extreme from where it was, which all told is perhaps a good thing!

This popular movie scene was in my mind this morning for some reason... but what's the punchline?

Confusing! UKMO was up for some quick cold, GFS was busy contradicting itself within +96, ECM fancied a bit of early spring. UKMO backed off, everyone called it quits, then ECM farts out another Easterly on the 12z.

I'd get your drinks in now if I were you, think it's going to get busy in here shortly...

I can't remember a time of such extreme volatility and disagreement - it's a fascinating reminder of how much is left to understand and discover. On that basis, anyone taking the operational output at face value at the moment is trying to nail jelly to a tree. Add to that the different opinions of each of these differing outputs, and you have a recipe for a rather splendid mess. Great isn't it!

I'd second this. There's a solid group of long-standing members who regularly post constructive analysis of the potential outcomes, and sure, most have a preference for cold and will post accordingly, but I always read their content on the understanding that there are no guarantees being made. They are also among the first to caution against getting carried away and explain why. Most who have been on the forum long enough appreciate the health warnings that should be applied to forecasting out past 144-168, but that takes time to understand and appreciate the other tools and techniques which should be used to sanity check the operational output. New members must find it very difficult to get a handle on things when for every decent well-explained post there are three more implying feet of snow, and another two promising mild. This to me has worsened since the severe weather over 2009/10. It actively diminishes the value of the good posts to the uninitiated. I remember when I first started following the thread in 2004/5 - I lost count of the number of times I scurried off to tell everyone we'd be buried in snow next week based on a few errant posts, and then... a marriage of face and egg. Sod being a mod!

Bloody hell, you didn't do it by half! A collector's item. I've very fond memories of '91, it was the first major cold weather event I can clearly remember, and was old enough to get out and enjoy with friends. The path edges were piled so high on both sides with snow where they'd been shoveled clear they nearly reached my waist. I'm not really into the cold and snow unless it's an event like this (just not worth the hassle and disruption otherwise, IMO). The '87 event all I can remember is being walked to school and really struggling to breathe in the bitter wind. Was my first taste of true cold and was pretty frightening for six-year-old me. Would be interesting to see what this spell, if it arrives, can bring this late into the season for my region.

If Carlsberg did ramping....

Probably wise to keep the powder dry at the moment. New members could easily get drawn into talk of 87 and 91. To my untrained eye it seems we're still out to 200 hours for the result most want, and SSW or not, that's still very much in garden path territory for an easterly.

Beautiful morning here today. Whatever happens over the next couple of weeks at least we'll have Spring knocking on the door. Hope the SSW doesn't have any effect in March.

Inexplicably, our local authorities deemed it appropriate to close the flyover in town this morning causing chaos - this in response to something I could barely describe as a dusting.

Ready for some spring warmth now. As soon as I leave work in the twilight, I start turning attention to the new season. I just hope this SSW being touted in the MOD doesn't portend a cold March. I presume the QTR being discussed means the effects will develop quicker but also fade quicker though? I certainly would not want to see blocking to our NE/NW becoming a feature through the start of Spring. Still too early to call though but it seems the MetO think it's more than an outside bet.

Looks like Sheerness took a pasting, hope they're coping OK.

I have a feeling this afternoon's runs will be crucial if we are to discover that the models are all over the place, and about to smell the coffee. Still twelve months of winter left. Eyes down. Seriously though, it's been exhausting following the output this season. Like spending a long weekend with your drunk unpredictable uncle, who promises great things each morning but then falls asleep in the chair, farts and forgets to put the dinner on. If only Uncle Bart wasn't busy; boring, but at least you knew you were never going to the circus in the first place.

I'm not sure this is going to deliver much more than the mid-Dec snowfall for my location (if that), although the depth and length of cold will be greater. I think the percentage call would be for nothing disruptive per se, but possibly enough to scrape a snowman or two together in the garden with the kids before a slow transition to less cold. All told, if a few cms fall over the coming week, this winter has been the most seasonal for several years.

The output is very interesting to watch at the moment, but I'm not sold on the idea of a snowbound month ahead just yet. Looks like at least a few days of quite cold weather kicking off shortly is a certainty, but beyond that still all just for fun. I'd hold off ordering the grit for now.

Well if there is anything developing in the dim and distant meteorological future, I hope it arrives mid-month at the latest. I lose interest in cold weather events when I can still just about see the sun upon leaving work. That's the precise point I start looking for Spring warmth. Very scientific, I know.

It was really strong earlier this morning - hopefully that's it for a while for wind, I now have two fence panels to repair...

Gah... Really should've fixed that fence panel that fell from the storm... Currently getting an ever-enhancing panorama of the car park.

It does make me wonder whether in previous years, all other things being equal, we would have seen a notable event develop this winter. As things stand, we may just be in a normal mild sequence of winters, but you would have to say if this pattern continues for another few years, it's a potential signal that cold weather is becoming rarer for the UK. I'm more an extreme weather enthusiast than a cold weather fan, but honestly can't remember a five-year period with a handful of frosts and a transient snowfall, although my memory may be failing me. For those wanting a 'classic' cold spell to develop, something really needs to start appearing soon. After allowing time for the pattern to change following the clearance of this storm, we'll be approaching the back end of January, with probably 2-3 weeks max before the sun starts to gain strength.

Well, after all the excitement the MOD now settles back into a more normal rhythm. It was genuinely interesting reading the different takes on the output. I'm glad the fate of that block in terms of a notable UK weather event is decided though. Sadly there's a pretty unpleasant spell of weather in the offing now. More or less my least favoured conditions. Looking at summer holidays and thoughts of 30 degree heat to lift my mood!