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Number 23

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Everything posted by Number 23

  1. Number 23
    If I had to stake my mortgage on an outcome, I'd be inclined to agree. That's not to say it won't happen though and I'll be watching with interest!
  2. Number 23
    Yeah I'm always suspicious of direct hit -10 and colder 850's at that range - how many times have we seen it in the past? So often see the coldest air being shunted east or south nearer the time, or other fine detail emerging during the countdown from 120 onwards. 2010 was quite notable for the lack of deviation from long range to T+0, but I think everyone is expecting this to be somewhat more fraught.
  3. Number 23
    Willing to be corrected, but I believe it pushed through a lot quicker than expected.
  4. Number 23
    Easing off here now, about a cm or two on cars etc. Not great, but better than the last few winters!
  5. Number 23
    Just watched a lorry smash into a porch across the road, left it barely standing. Hope for their sake it stays upright tonight, what a time for it to happen.
  6. Number 23
    But will it snow in Steeple Bumpstead at t+240? We must have the answers.
  7. Number 23
    ECM 12z now throws out the sort of output which leaves your eyebrows halfway down the back of your head... I can't remember many runs like that which have materialised in the absence of better consensus across the outputs though. I expect the GFS 18z to stick a finger or two up at it later. But let's not allow that to deter us - cue the Benny Hill chase music!
  8. Number 23
    Image attached - and on a handy key chain so it's always ready to dig the car out. They think of everything...
  9. Number 23
    I'd describe the winter periods 09-17 as analogous to the period 20th Dec to 15th Jan - lots of fun and seasonal festivity followed by a barren spell on the treadmill having dreamy delusions of being back on the eggnog.
  10. Number 23
    With reference to a post I read above but now cannot locate to quote - yes I'd describe being led up the garden path as a potent Easterly being advertised by all models at +96 suddenly dissolving in the space of an afternoon. There's been nothing approaching that this winter - instead a vast amount of confusing okey-cokeys with scenarios mainly in the 7-10 day range. I did have a hunch after the slew of runs around the time of 'that 6z' a few days ago we'd get at least a cold albeit heavily modified end result - but for the majority anything from the NW is about as interesting as the Emmerdale Omnibus at your Mother-In-Law's on a Sunday afternoon. It's always folly to write off the rest of winter with two-thirds left, but my gut tells me we've already experienced our 'no cigar' moment, and without a rapid change of fortune it's going to be scraps from here. Of course many experts may disagree which is why I'm not in the MOD...
  11. Number 23
    Lol you can almost hear the frantic clicking going on... A lot of fun especially for someone like me who has tried and failed to read the charts correctly! Whatever happens I think as long as you learn something along the way it's all good.
  12. Number 23
    I'm a layman in every way but just from reading and watching over the years, I'd compare the 6z to shuffling a pack of cards and producing thirteen consecutive diamonds. There's not many places to go from there. Obviously this is a science and not pure chance, but the huge number of variables required for something like that to transpire especially given the range would suggest a repeat is hugely unlikely. Yet the fact that current conditions make outcomes like that possible at all means we have a good chance of seeing something interesting develop. In any event all good fun as we await the next batch of data, but as barely more than a novice myself, I'd echo any caution offered to newer members and lurkers against running off to friends and relatives with warnings of the next apocalypse... I've certainly made this mistake in the past, even when it was within 48-96 with full agreement and looked certain. I now leave that to the Daily Express!!!
  13. Number 23
    Yeah the 6z was nuts, 12z will probably drop the idea altogether though as I'm sure you'll also expect! Probably not a bad thing though, as it was being widely compared to 47/ 62/63 and more severe than 87, of which I have memories of struggling to breathe on my way to school as the coldest wind I've ever felt blasted me full force in the chops...
  14. Number 23
    Returned from holiday after leaving a forum awash with pessimism and zonal nightmare scenarios, and just logged in and seen the 6z following on from yesterday's different but much more positive outputs... Bloody Hell. I doubt many would have believed that run could resolve from what was on offer a short while ago? Just out of interest - is the 6z still considered the ugly sister of the GFS runs? I know it used to have a bad reputation among many on here, but not sure if it was/is still deserved. Obviously what we witnessed this morning is a rank outsider in terms of accurate verification at this range, and may be dropped altogether shortly. However from 10+ years of lurking on the site, I have a sense we now at least have a horse in the gate - rather than one charging around in the paddock with the jockey chasing after it. Not expecting anything like that to roll out on the 12z's, but looking forward to finding out.
  15. Number 23
    Thanks Paul, appreciated. Hopefully can grab a glass bottle of red and watch a few fireworks if we're lucky!
  16. Number 23
    Hi guys, Off to the Charente in S/W France on Sunday morning - looks to be a hot/humid and potentially thundery week. One thing caught my eye on the 06z GFS - CAPE values on Monday night of 3500 - 4000 (almost max) in that area?! As I understand it the CIN (Convective Inhibition) has a bearing on storm potential, but that seems low as well. Question to those in the know; should we be nailing things to floor if this were to happen? I love a good storm, but that looks extreme to me? Cheers,
  17. Number 23
    Snowing again here. Again. After depriving me of another football match, the snow can only redeem itself now by saving me from a trip to see the mother in law tomorrow.
  18. Number 23
    A few cms settled here; another football match cancelled. The relentlessly dire weather continues!
  19. Number 23
    This front can pivot, shimmy, sidestep, whatever it bloody wants as long as it behaves according to the forecast. Fresh snow on slushy ice would be a recipe for not much fun.
  20. Number 23
    It's weird we've only had 5-6 cms here, but many places close by have had a lot more. Not complaining though as I need to be out early tomorrow, just interesting.
  21. Number 23
    Coming down steady here after faffing around for a good hour or two. Supposed to be sorting the loft out but the view from that part of the house isn't up to much.
  22. Number 23
    About to walk to the shops. Yes walk. I could end up like Lawrence Oates so tell my mother I love her if I never return.
  23. Number 23
    Washing powder stuff - perfect description.
  24. Number 23
    I moved up here in 2003 - so missed the better years by the sound of it. It's not that bad really, if you keep your door locked and a shotgun by your bed. I'm not sure what 'snizzle' really is, but I've seen the term used before and it seems to accurately describe what is falling out of the skies over us at the moment. One thing's for sure, if this continues until July I'll need a shovel to get to work.
  25. Number 23
    You have my sympathies. At least you worked in one of the three central pillars of Braintree society - bookies, pound shops and J.D. Wetherspoon.
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