Number 23

Cold from the NW? Non alcoholic beer, anyone?

Well looks like those wanting a decent weather event are now looking at mid-late Jan for something to set up at the earliest. I remember the days in situations like this week, I'd run off and tell people we had severe weather coming, as if I was in the know Made to look a prat quite a few times when we were sitting under warm rain a week later. Hoping we get something benign while we await the next developments.

On the bright side, at least this one looks like slipping away at 144+, and with model disagreement to temper expectations. Much better than a cross-model agreed straight Easterly with -10 uppers at +72/96 which goes up in smoke!

Still too early to say, but I think the halfway house solution is starting to develop which, when it comes to Easterlies and their all-or-nothing nature, isn't good news in the short term. Shame, but not totally unexpected given the expert opinions on here of late.

Since I only enjoy significant cold weather events, I've been watching this develop with interest. Gut instinct is we'll see a gradual convergence over the next couple of days, and a watered-down/curtailed variant of the Euro's will be the net result. From there is anyone's guess, but I'm unconvinced this initial phase will bring much of note other than noticeably lower temps than of late. Whilst GFS vs Euros is more likely to favour the Euros, wherever there's significant disagreement, the difference is normally split. Blocking too robust from ECM, energy too vigorous from GFS in the +144 area. I'm an absolute novice (even after 12+ years of lurking!), but that seems to me the most likely outcome.

I'm sure if you caught one you'd have a reasonable ready-made snowball!

Blustery heavy snow here now. Looks like one of those where we'll get a bit of transient settling on grass and sheds before a swift melt. Must say though, these are the largest snowflakes I've seen in a very long time.

Yup heating off and even cracked a window last night. Crazy for late December. I am thoroughly enjoying the lack of arguments over the thermostat!

Impressive to be fair given the uncertainty. Although I clearly now have some work to do when it melts.

Well most unexpectedly I awoke to find it's hammering it down in Chelmsford. Not sure when it switched to snow bit looks like maybe about 7ish? Cars now starting to struggle and the small tree on my path is bent over under the weight. Actually turned out to be a decent event here.

I think I can confidently say this slider finally buggering off will be my first Christmas gift.

Looks like Sunday is going to be one for drawing the curtains and breaking out the eggnog for most of us. Monday slush-fest anyone? Bleugh - give me 12 degrees and bone dry any day. I like watching the snow fall, but only if it's powdery and deep enough to make things look nice for a while.

I'd be surprised/amazed if those accumulation charts verify! If I had to bet I'd say we'll see something wintry but nothing settling.

As the models decide whether this LP wants to slide/glide/stride etc over the UK, the snow line keeps meandering about with a grin on its face like the pied piper. If only it were possible to have 0 deg maxima above the snow line and 30+ below it - I could watch the chaos unfold from the comfort of my deck chair. Looks like an absolutely rotten few days on the horizon!!

Yes was nice jumping in the car on the way to the gym this morning at 6.45 - no frost to scrape off, light hoodie on, no shivering in the kitchen waiting for my porridge. Used to be very pro-cold weather, but now I'll only welcome it when it's truly memorable. Would gladly take a '91 again, but hens teeth and all that. I actually very much enjoy the slate-grey skies and stillness. Hoping the 12z's continue to push the LP off north and east, as this set-up wasn't really floating my boat anyway.

Ha, think there'll be a lot of that over the next few days!

This all has a familiar whiff about it... Building anticipation: check Marginality: check FI 'Jam tomorrow' charts: check What could go possibly go wrong?

Yeah northerlies can do one to be honest, rather it was 15 degrees and have the heating off! Hoping the high topples.

And the survey says... sleet.

I do enjoy watching the MOD from a distance. Model volatility has deceived in the 72/96 time frame in years gone by. Will continue to watch with interest, as the current situation is a fascinating insight into how complicated this science is. I'm not brave enough to offer an opinion in the MOD, but if I had to stake my house on the outcome, I'd say the 12z's will lower expectations again. Twas ever thus.

Reading the MOD from last night and following this morning's 6z had me whistling "The Grand Old Duke of York".... I have a feeling that tune's going to be on repeat for the balance of today.

Hmm Northerlies a bit dull for my neck of the woods, but I'll enjoy any clear and cold weather on offer. Wouldn't want to see that pattern repeating all winter though!

Agreed. Been lurking for years, and can tell a 'good' chart from a bad one but that's about it. When I saw October's output, I did have a hunch we may miss out this winter - nothing scientific - only that synoptics like that are so hard to come by. Law of averages, the law of sod and gut feelings are about as technical as I get lol. Certainly the signals from the strat seem to be consistent and have been for a while, which is a shame for me, because I have zero interest in cold or even significant snow come late Feb early March, in the same way I don't want 30+ degrees in September. I like my seasons to switch quickly and stick to the script! I do see some of the experts thinking the effect could be felt earlier, if so bring it on!

Really hoping the forecasted cool to cold March buggers off soon, nothing worse than looking forward to switching the heating off and mild mornings, only to be confronted with a fourth month of faux-winter. Sod's law it'll be bloody freezing all month...

It just never really felt right, this one. We'll see what happens, but the Carrott appears to be making it's way back to the end of the pole again! Personally I've got one eye on spring warmth already. Looking forward to longer days and the bushes springing back into life.