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BurwellWeatherWatch

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Posts posted by BurwellWeatherWatch

    General Model Output Discussion:

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    This was posted by a member on TWO:

     

    I emailed Met Office before lunch and got this very rapid response. Credit to them - the email reply came back in just over 1 hour. This should put this one to bed.

     Well done Tara (Weather Desk Advisor)

     

    "The 6 to 15 day forecast issued at around 1130 each day, and is based on the 00Z model runs and ensembles.

    It is produced by one person, but they do consult our Chief Forecaster and Medium Range Forecaster before

    they are issued, so there is some team work involved.

     

    I am not sure where people have got the idea that we use the 12Z runs, as they are out of date by that time.

    It may be that many of the internet forums only look at GFS, as that goes out to 14 days, and they may see

    that we are slow to follow to that model, but we look at much more information and need to take a balanced view."

    good to see that one being laid to rest. As much flak as the MO get, it would be incredible if they were using data that is >12 hours old to prepare a forecast. It has admittedly seemed on a few days this winter that their 6-15 dayer has been more reflective of the previous day's 12zs but that is presumably coincidence together with the fact that they are looking at the bigger picture.

    Snowstorm: Britain's Big Freeze

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    yes it is over the top....but still worth the watch

    why is the narrator whispering :lol:

    Because it was Sean Pertwee! cf his character in Cold Feet - I think that's how he normally talks.

    Good footage and moderately enjoyable to watch - but overall it was hugely sensationalist and the Met Office came over as unduly self-congratulatory. There were some very dubious generalisations, especially at the opening.

    I'm glad they didn't try to draw too many global warming conclusions from this one-off event (on either side of the argument). The oversimplistic link between the SSW and the 'event' - outlined at the end - was also rather misleading.

    But overall, the actual snowstorm (?) strikes me as less amazing than the fact we went for best part of 20 years without one, given our northern latitude.

    February CET

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I think this is the month we are going to crack the magic 3.

    Having predicted 3.1 for January, you've just got to trust me on this :winky:

    So I'll go for +2.8C

    A pretty exceptional first week for cold; a chilly middle and a spring-like end is on the cards

    January CET

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    as a lurker this thread is quite hilarious!

    I'm still quite happy with my guess of 3.1C and think I'm in good company with Mr Data! However, as cheeky monkey kindly pointed out, even if my answer turns out to be good, my calculation of it was a bit dodgy. So I may lose marks for working...

    Should be within around +/- 0.5 anyway. Doesn't look likely to change massively between now and end of the month.

    Roll on the February guesses! p.s. Is WIB the new IB? :D

    January CET

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I'm going to go for a month of four quarters - i.e. roughly a week of each of the following:

    1) Cold

    2) Seriously cold

    3) Fairly mild

    4) Cold

    Based on how December is working out CET-wise, I'd therefore go for 3.1C. I think it will be notably colder than recent Januarys, but we probably won't achieve the elusive sub-3C.

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