BurwellWeatherWatch
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Posts posted by BurwellWeatherWatch
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Page numbers / jump to start and end are back on the mobile version now.
Thank you for such a quick response - that's terrific and much easier to navigate now on the mobile version.
In the quest for perfection, I should point out that on the IPB Iphone APP when first visiting netweather, it pulls up the full-site (i.e. non mobile) version when you first visit the site. This has happened since the forum update, so presumably another minor glitch. Once you go to a link, you are restored to the mobile version, so not a major problem - just worth pointing out I thought.
Thanks again
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Hi , on the mobile version , the ability to jump between pages seems to have gone (ie you can't go straight to the last page) - there is just the prev/next page buttons - so this update is a bit of a regressive step for mobile users I'm afraid
Thanks!
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5.7 please
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Hi Teits - so which areas in EA do you think are going to have the main snow focus tonight
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I think the BBC MetO and everyone else has been a couple of hundred miles out with the main band of precipitation. It's all much further north than predicted with only northern tip of EA getting anything worthwhile.
i think there is lots more on the way tonight, so we need to be patient. The front edge of the band has only recently encompassed us on the radar. Heaviest stuff still over the midlands but should reach us by around midnight. Hoping to get plastered tonight, well not me personally - the garden.
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1.9
Would hope for lower but wd expect some early severe cold to moderate after around a week or so, with one more cold - but not brutal cold - period around the 18th.
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The overall CET of a winter doesen't always tell you much about a winter's weather. With winter 1986-87, it was only notable for having a severe two week spell mid January, and the rest of the winter was not special - hardly what can be reasonably described as a cold winter overall is it. Take out the 14 day period 7th - 20th Jan 1987, and winter 1986-87 has a CET of 4.6, not the 3.5 that it ended up. Winter 2010-11 has a similar story, it was poor after the early date of Dec 27th, with conditions average at best and any cold spells limited to rex blocking with little in the way of northern blocking, and Feb 2011 was very mild and devoid of anything wintry. Take out the 1st - 27th Dec 2010, and winter 2010-11 has a CET of 5.0, not the 3.1 that it ended up.
Agree that the overall CET doesn't indicate whether it was generally that temperature throughout or whether it was punctuated by extremes, but just don't get this obsession with taking out the warm or cold bits and saying what it would have been. The point of an average is that it is going to be skewed by extremes, whether mild or warm. We could always take out the warmest or coldest bits of any season and then claim it was just average. So don't get what the point is....
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Words of the winters through the mod~ern era
2006-07 Bartlettisation
2007-08 Hairdryer, blowtorch
2008-09 Faux Cold
2009-10 Longwaves
2010-11 Shortwaves
2011-12 Aleutian ridge (apparently the new obsession of the season!)
What are your favourite non-words/pretensious vocab that crop up in the MDT each season...
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This seems to be raised on a regular basis. So what- it was a colder than average winter but one very much of two halves. If you took all the hot days out of a hot summer, you could say it was a colder than ave season discounting the warm days.
So I don't get what the point is really
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Above was replying to NEB's stats about last winter being completely normal. Quote function doesn't seem to work on iPhone app
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7.1°C, but hopefully a dry month
would be up with the mildest Jans of all time, but I suspect that the 2 forecasts are fairly contradictory. There will be those with much better knowledge of these things than me, but wouldn't such a high CET in January necessitate a continuous push of mild maritime flows which is also likely to contain lots of unsettled low pressure systems with accompanying rain.
I also believe that after the warmest Jan CET on record, there was a freeze from mid Feb to mid March, so plenty of time to enjoy winter.
I'll put in my punt a bit nearer the New Year.
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I take it you have forgotten about December 2007? Remember when you said it was going to be a zonal fest and possibly a record break mild December and I pointed out that one or two ensembles were showing high pressure having more of influence? Lo and behold as the runs went by the high pressure influence increased and increased and we ended up with about a two week anticyclonic spell and an average December. Not saying that will happen this time but the point is we don't know with any degree with certainty.
Whilst the original post was clearly designed to subtly bait those with a disposition to more interesting weather patterns, that could well be the way that things turn out. Equally it might not be and the very nature of the UK's weather makes it impossible to know. Although there is nothing on the models tonight to suggest anything approaching a freeze, things could well change very rapidly following Christmas. I seem to remember a period of great doom and teeth-gnashing back around Christmas 2009, shortly before that very memorable cold spell of Jan 2010. I think a lot of the most memorable spells (mild or cold) pop up fairly suddenly out of the blue, so keep the faith everyone. However, on the models themselves - looks very mild mid week and fairly mild after that with the possibility of some chillier episodes interspersed.
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The UK will never see sustained cold and snow, apart from once in a lifetime events like 1948 and 1963 and even these will become rarer in the future.
So last December not good enough? Actually wasn't particularly snowy here at all, but from a nationwide perspective I think it was fairly acceptable!
the rest of the winter was unusually mild. Overall last winter was mild.
not at all. January was also below average. February's mildness and December's exceptional cold somewhat balancing each other out to make a colder-than-average (but not exceptionally so) winter overall.
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We were certainly spoilt last December, unfortnately I don't think we'll see anything remotely like that this winter, or at least not in the South of the country.
Indeed would be unlikely to get the same 1 in 100 year event twice in consecutive years.
so time is rapidly running out.
not really - still 73 days of winter left and even then there are plenty of opportunities for interesting wintry weather after that.
Models certainly pretty unanimous about a milder period this week, but will be interesting to see if its 'window of opportunity' starts to narrow down as we move into the week. This is what used to happen to cold weather in the modern Christmas, but now seems to happen more to mild weather, even when the teleconnections are suggesting otherwise. Christmas itself almost certain to be snowless - at least in much of UK - but still quite plausible to see something more seasonal emerging depending where the HP decides to plonk itself down.
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850Hpa temps of 10-12c for the whole of England and Wales takes some believing I must agree, but there has been good consistancy about a very mild midweek spell of some time now, so as you rightly say Mr Brown might yet have the last laugh.
l
he may well do whatever happens, but the uppers don't necessarily equate to warm weather at this time of year. Could be quite chilly if it becomes anti-cyclonic.
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Lots of people feeding the trolls tonight!
Weather watching doesn't come much more varied and exciting than this week though. Thurs still far from resolved - I think a pressure reading Alone is too simplistic though and there will be more factors than this which determine the windiness.
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4.1 please
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All looks great.
Only slight irritation is that when browsing mobile version (via IPB app) you cannot select a particular page within a thread. If you want to cut straight to the last page you have to press "next page" repeatedly through them all .... I think!
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2.9 please
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All very melodramatic.....
I think the new invited thread is proving v good. It's prob only a bit slow because the weather is gearing up for a fairly mundane phase. But great to have all the informed and calm postings in one dedicated place
OK seen as though non of the mods will help out, seeing as though OON won't help out, and seeing as though I sent a private message to paul this morning, and seeing as though I cannot report posts for some reason I have no choice to post this in here where it will be seen, but no doubt be ignored I assume!
Please remove the last line of chionomaniac's post please.
He has no right to post that or Judge me, as I have no right to post or judge anyone else. If I do that mine is the first to be deleted, or edited by a mod. It's humiliating me on the thread, and it's not fair. I feel that this is some kind of setup.
I come to post and air my views, it's chiono who get personal with a little stab at the end, he's no better no different to me, accept for living in an upper class area than me which makes no difference.
So I'm asking you mods, please can you do that for me and remove it? As it's not fair, I don't want to argue with Chiono and 1 year ago I would have given him a piece of my mind, but I just cannot be bothered with bickering, i'm sick of snipes, digs, i'm here to talk about the weather, not to be downgraded or humiliated by someone.
regards
lewis
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i wondered what the CET was of the coldest winter ever - and what we'd have to "achieve" in Jan/Feb 2011 to reach this? (supposing that we hit something around 0 - -0.5C for a December CET?
many thanks
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2.5 please
The London bus phenomenen: endless years with no sub-3 months, then three in one year.
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GFS not looking too great for coldies ATM but don't think ukmo is going to back down tonight if indeed at all. Would be good to get some consensus from ECM though too
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so I believe it's GFS, JMA, GEFS, theweatheroutlook, lots of posters on here, pros at the Met such as Ian Ferguson, weatheronline, an AO forecast, various teleconnections Daily Mail (by implication), Piers Corbyn (presumably), Joe B versus ECM operational, UKMO raw, Metcheck, and Darren Bett. Let's have a tug of war
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Good 72hr fax with colder weather across the northern parts of the UK
lol that slightly contradicts the winter is over post a few posts ago, and the declaration of Feb being warmest month.
Don't post often, but some absolutely hilarious posts in here tonight.
People praying, worshipping, then declaring winter is over on the 30th January on the basis of one model run.
Thanks to all those posters who provide a measured balanced approach for amateurs like me!
It would be great to see a dramatic Easterly, and it's definitely not all over yet. One of the formermost models (GFS) is presenting something pretty dramatic as its operational probabilistic scenario and as I understand it is well supported by its Ensembles.
The ECM is presenting another set of probabilities, tending towards the mild. It could be a mild outlier, I don't think we know yet.
The UKMO is also bad (for cold lovers) but has seemingly been disregarded by... the UKMO.
With the human pros at the MO and the GFS apparently in favour of a cold Easterly, it's hardly game over. Of course everyone is excited about the possiblities but it would be great to see everyone keeping an open mind about what could happen. It could be cold or mild - we just cannot tell on the basis of the current charts. Let's not declare winter is over though or that we are "definitely doomed to 3 weeks of blowtorch if UKMO verifies" as that is not terribly helpful for people trying to learn like me.
have a great evening everyone, here's to the 18Z GFS and I don't think we can assume anything.
Model Output Discussion 26/10 2012 >
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
I sense there is an attempt for the link here, which ends with the low crashing through it, but it that link did get established a dnwas able to hold off such lows...?
"and was" I should imagine!