BurwellWeatherWatch
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9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
I'm pleasantly surprised Nick..
Zonal express turning into a National Express from Manchester to Blackpool...
At least it would be going east to west then
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2 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:Some folk need to understand that this thread is to discuss the model outputs that be 6hr out or 2 weeks. Also if folk are looking for there 1st snowflake of the season using said models that's absolutely fine even if there are no METO warnings out for said areas.
Last but not least, Some people get excited some don't, That's fine but just let it be.. I've always found marginal snow events a little exiting, But I wouldn't expect everyone to be just because I am and visa/versa..
absolutely! The thread has, for the most part, been extremely civilised and informative this season. There will always be a smattering of the pompous, the 'told-you-sos' and a few trolling for a reaction - but in the main it has been great. There is definitely enough uncertainty from the models and the various experts to maintain interest at the moment - nice for once not to be staring down the barrel of certain zonality in December.
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2 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:
Unless it's gets closer to the reliable timeframe there's no point in looking
maybe this is the wrong thread to discuss in then?
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4 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:
Early warm Spring beckons.
Many on here have ignored the warmth building to the South and South West of mainland Europe, instead focussing on the Usual cold to our North.
16c in Southern England come mid-Feb.
that sounds quite pleasant, if somewhat unseasonal.
But again I am struggling to see why the next four weeks are automatically written off, esp with such model volatility in the last few days. i think anything beyond later next week very much up for grabs.
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yes this should be pretty cold at the surface. nothing spectacular showing yet but baby steps in the right direction.
It is good that winter in some kind of form is back on the cards for next week - particularly after we were told that cold was definitely impossible before the end of January and probably impossible for the remainder of winter. I think I even saw the suggestion last week that we'd never again get cold weather in this country!
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20 minutes ago, Faronstream said:
What's your point? It's just a record while i talk about most hottest days for an average year and it's not august. And march is neither normally the coldest winter month even if last winters has been different
Average July CET 16.6
Average August CET 16.3
So hopefully nonsense about it's not possible to be hot in August / cold in February can be laid to rest?
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45 minutes ago, Faronstream said:
Well yes most people would and that is correct, the sun angle is getting lower fast for each day during august and any "real" warmth is unlikely. Most don't even want snow and cold in march since it's too late and out of season. Accept it
Lol, other than the UK's hottest day has occurred in August, and early aug normally peak of summer heat. But guess you were just on the wind up anyway!
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transitioning to snow in East Cambs now
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18 hours ago, Paul Sherman said:
Guys
I want to get in early and try to stop the doom and gloom posts that are going to happen around 4-7pm tomorrow in this Regional Thread. Why are these posts going to happen I hear you say ?? Well simple, it will RAIN first before the precip turns to snow. You might see, WHAT A BUST, You might see, WHAT A PATHETIC COLD SPELL, You might see, WE ONLY GET SNOW FROM EASTERLIES
Please Please Please watch the Video Dan has posted up, and please watch all nearly 7 minutes of it, you might learn something, you might already know what he is describing, but more importantly it lays out what is expected to happen and why some places have people swinging from the Chandeleers with Heavy snow whilst others have a wintry mix
Thanks to Dan (Staplehurst) for putting this Video together
might be a good time to refer back to this excellent post from last night - as predicted we are getting towards 4pm and there are the clamours of "but it's raining"....
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5 minutes ago, Lloyds32 said:
Looks pretty wet in Bristol on 'that' chart.
isn't it a bit too chilly-looking for you to be out?
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Onwards to the GFS and icon 18zs
If you can't face that then there is some dyer output on BBC1 at the same time!
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49 minutes ago, SLEETY said:
even in an average winter ,you would expect one decent snowfall.Unless things change fairly quickly this winter is going to end up a complete shambles and hopefully the end of long range seasonal forecasting ,as it proven time and time again ,their are too many variables in the U.K. climate to forecast weeks,months ahead.
fingers crossed then that there are no future attempts to refine the science of long range forecasting and we can return to looking out of the window!
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11 minutes ago, Easton Luna Boys said:Do you spot the recurring theme here?
Everything has continued to be pushed further and further back, despite favourable 'background signals'.
I stand by my opinion that we still know too little about teleconnections and upper level factors and are rolling dice to an extent hoping for a double 6. The noise has apparently been promising since late November, but you only have to look at the score sheet to see who's winning.
Also, ask yourself the question; if we have such a good grasp of these background signals, then why the volte face on Friday that caught so many off guard? (It's a rhetorical question and doesn't require an excuse as to why everything has been pushed further back).
So, back to day 10.
Have a good working week everybody!
i think Catacol wrote a detailed response to these "arguments" last night - but I guess it's like shouting into an echo chamber!
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2 minutes ago, johnholmes said:
Why is the 06 correct compared to other runs or other models?
i don't think you can reason with those who post entirely by their emotion rather than on the basis of any science.
things are certainly looking a fair bit watered down for next week on the basis of (some) of the 0zs and the available 6zs but I don't think the bigger picture has suddenly changed. From past observations of this, there has often been a weekend wobble prior to a cold spell. No real scientific basis for that other than the models may have over-reacted to a particular signal.
Either way, it's a great opportunity to learn more through unusual synoptics which could still all give us the weather we want! How many points can we learn, as opposed to score?
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14 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:
that Azores high is never going to give up !! 28th Jan and warm sw winds return - doesn't look much like headline grabbing cold for the end of jan !!
aside from the issue of giving any credence to a D16 GFS chart, much of the UK seems to be bathed in pretty cold 850s (apart from a bit of a warm waft over NW Ireland) - so I don't think it would be warm?
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in Cambridgeshire - sometime mid-late July 2015 - absolutely incredible storm throughout the night with continuous thunder/lightning and biblical rain.
As a young boy in Derby - 9 July 1981 - I think this was noted for its significance in a weather book I once read.
Of all time/anywhere .... in Malaysia a few weeks ago. Extraordinary and they seem to get it on a daily basis which may slightly spoil the novelty factor.
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4 minutes ago, bobbydog said:
well, as i sit here and watch my first decent snowfall of this week and the whole winter, the day before the warm-up... the good news is, the CFS is going for decent blocking as we go into december
only 6672hrs away...
borderline FI...?
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fantastic walk out and about tonight.
Totally eerie over the snowfields and a cold - combined with the windchill - like I have barely ever felt.
For the last 200yds I felt the urge to experience it without my hat and gloves. The windchill on your face and head was extreme. An easterly gale blowing falling snow into your face. Pretty rare for this country and the combination of snow and cold for this area easily exceeds 2010 (which was pretty snowless here).
Extraordinary - have tried to make the most of it tonight - may not get this again within 10 years.
It's good to be back in the electric blanket again now though!
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2 minutes ago, Will Whittaker said:
I do feel this easterly has been so hyped.
Clear skies, no wind. perhaps looks as if some one has burst a bean bag in my garden.
Does anyone actually remember a proper easterly.
This was hyped as once in 100 yr event. Laughable.
I hope someone somewhere gets a snowdrift.
i don't think it's barely started though? uppers of -17 will be crossing the country in the next 48 hours, I think that's about a once in 20+ year event? Some places will get lots of snow; others less so. but to write it off on the first day seems odd to say the least
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a nice little smattering on the Cambs/Suffolk border but hoping for a bit more tonight!
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amazing charts again this afternoon - run out of superlatives! Incredible cross model support now for something quite special early next week and who knows where it might go from there.
Hopefully this will lay to rest once and for all the old claim that "it can't get cold in late February" due to solar energy / longer days etc (given that March 2013 seemingly didn't put the claim to rest!)
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Unbelievable cold run.
The GFS is the gift that keeps on giving.
Maybe just a tad slower on 18z but cleaner advection, amazing.
When can we tell the muggles?
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some nice charts tonight and could be some good surprises around this weekend. The route to cold and snow was never smooth for the UK but a difference of 100/200 miles is so tiny globally but very meaningful on the ground. On this basis, it's strange to hear people saying "GFS is cannon fodder" or "ECM now has egg all over its face". THe models are just playing around with solutions that are just really tiny on a global scale.
Looks like it could stay pretty cold into next week.
Some strange trollcasts on here tonight about zonality looking odds-on for next week. Of course it may happen but I don't see any particular evidence to back this up.
Great start to winter!
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3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:
I’m sorry but to any newcomers that’s just completely misleading.
When we have the “big three” all Showing a different route at D6, you can’t say the EC will be right, also I’ve not heard anyone saying EC will be correct, apart from your comment
there is worry because the EC has been so reluctant to show the low slide further west, but that’s it.
all to play for
yes it was very misleading - but i suspect more for the purpose of attracting attention rather than in respect of being scientific or analytical. In these situations where you have a range of solutions at relatively close range, it normally seems best to assume the middle ground between them will probably play out. That normally tends to be dull/non-descript but in this case could be rather good??
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Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
The models have shown a broad range of possibilities and outcomes - with some very appealing solutions close to the mid term. It would be disingenuous to say that everything has been in outlier FI...
Do you exclude August from the possibility of summery weather too?