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BurwellWeatherWatch

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    Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    The life cycle of our weather models:
    •    Boring weather prevails and the models predict zonality ad infinitum
    •    There is a glimmer of interest at T+384 and a few users come out of hibernation
    •    Interest appears at T+192 and 3 pages of posts per minute are spawned: information overload.
    •    This is sustained to T+168 and a mass wave of excitement is induced
    •    Half of the users spontaneously wet themselves; the other half preach caution saying it will never happen
    •    Down to T+144 and the exciting weather is watered down to average benign conditions typical of the UK climate
    •    One half of the users tell the other half that ‘I told you so’
    •    A few users get very very cross about the weather not following the instructions of the models.
    •    There are a few calls for the UKMO to be banned and for the GFS to be restricted to T+72 only. The ECM is absolute canon fodder.
    •    The cross users are told by others not to be so ungrateful about the weather and that if they want to live in a very cold and bleak place they should move to Labrador, Siberia or Milton Keynes.
    •    A few users paste their own posts from several days before demonstrating how cautious they had been.
    •    To be additionally patronising a few users point out that “more experienced” or “more senior” members had been highlighting caution for weeks.
    •    Someone even claims that they had predicted 2 weeks ago that something that had not yet happened would not happen.
    •    Down to T+120 and excitement magically reappears in the models – next Wednesday is actually going to be a snowfest…maybe.
    •    The other half of the users tell the original half that actually they “told everyone so”
    •    Down to T+96 and the snowfest disappears again but a Brazilian weather model showing that it might be chilly in Aberdeen is posted to cheer everyone up.
    •    We are told that this chilliness doesn’t count because it is home grown from a high pressure cell.
    •    There is mass meltdown and hysteria as everyone realises that normal UK weather will take place.
    •    Normal UK weather takes place; the forum is more quiet and still than a January snowfield under a ‘faux cold’ high pressure cell.
    •    Repeat from step 2….
     

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    Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    17 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Suddenly after the 18z GFS we now have a zonal late Nov / Early Dec in the offing, I have to say I did warn about the inevitable collapse but I am taken aback by the speed of it, the sudden acceleration, I didn't expect a 'That ECM' style collapse (ie such a quick one) but we might well have it, the only positive is that the uppers were never conducive to extreme cold a nd huge dumpings like with Dec 12 in the first place so even if the last weeks modelling would have verified, I'm not sure many places would have received what I categorize as a tonking.

    very impressive to have predicted the demise, that hasn't yet happened, of an event that also hasn't yet happened - but either way may still do! On balance it's probably good to be seeing "I told you so" posts before even mid November, as it means there is at least some interest in the models this year. With 3 weeks to go until winter, i reckon it's going to be a long one!

    18z a bit dull tonight, but if it was the other way round we'd just be told to ignore it...

    • Like 11
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    Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by BurwellWeatherWatch

    looking at the models and going by the evidence from the posters who are vastly more knowledgeable than myself : it certainly seems that ECM 168 is unlikely to verify in that extreme format. There may not necessarily be snow-mageddon, and a cross-model blend of the more mainstream stuff may leave us cold and relatively dry.

    but it's assured to get very cold as the week progresses and that is a good start on the path to something more interesting than we've had so far. A nice 80s feel about it all.

    Some amazing contributions in here tonight and inspiring to read such well thought out posts. On the other hand a great deal of forum willy-waving as to who can paint the most apocalyptic vision of ECM168: "I'll get the barbecue out if that verifies."

    "No I'll be doing the barbecuing in my pants while polishing my surfboard" -

    all a bit tedious! (ESP as Ecm 168 would actually be V cold at surface)

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    Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Newberryone said:

    Call me fussy as well as being hard to please, but with today being the first of Spring, yes I know  nowadays it's considered to be the last month of winter in the meteorological calendar, but I fail to get excited about any potential easterly. What with the noticeable lengthening of daylight hours and the sun gaining strength, I deem this to be all just too little too late. Get excited if you must about a few continental flurries, but it's a mighty poor second best compared to a midwinter freeze, i.e. late Dec/early Jan. At least then you have reasonable scope remaining for reloads, unlike now with knockers daffs on the verge of doing a merry dance. 

    where do you start with that... maybe leave it with 1 March being the beginning of meteo spring and the equinox in March being start of astronomical spring. saying it can't get cold in February is like saying it can't get hot in August.

    Models looking pretty good this morning but would be nice to have a bit more buy-in from GFS and cross-agreement in coming days.

    • Like 19

    Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, knocker said:

    Interesting ecm run this evening. The divergence from the 00z and the start of some high jinks starts at T144, Here the mid Atlantic ridge extends further north and blocks the Canadian vortex eastward energy transfer. Not to be out done it redirects it SE and combines with the energy that has been tracking along the eastern seaboard to form a new trough in the western Atlantic. Thus we have this analysis with the combination of the ridge and European trough producing cold northerlies over the UK

    ecm_z500_anom_natl_7.png

    From here until T216 the mid Atlantic HP is shunted NE into Scandinavia introducing some warm air into that area whilst the trough in the west reestablishes the strong link to the Canadian vortex and tracks east  Thus a strong upper trough is established in mid Atlantic, slight ridging over the UK with a cold pool central Europe.

    ecm_z500_anom_natl_10.pngecm_t850_anom_natl_10.png

    In short we are looking at an unsettled, wet at times, cool bordering on cold weekend and the beginning of the next week before a brief quieter period as the HP pops in before the Atlantic says hello with a vengeance with the arrival of fronts from the west and strong winds.

    ecm_mslp_uv850_natl_11.png

    Would you be able to explain where the Atlantic charges back in because I can't see that in the charts....

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    Model Output Discussion - 23rd Jan - 12z onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    No chance of pinning much detail onto the next week and it'll just be a case of enjoying whatever happens. Various variations on a theme but it should be cold (and potentially snowy in places) for at least a week. Despite the 18z tonight, the trend is still to maintain that into next weekend - but what will be will be.

    I don't quite understand why certain members got incredibly excited about a puff of sleet into the North Midlands back on Boxing Day, and then seem to be utterly despondent about a week of virtually nationwide cold, and seeking every opportunity to find a forecast that ends it - but each to their own!

    Looking forward to the next week and great that it is occurring in the thermal depth of winter. Would be great if we could get a March 2013 synoptic in Feb 2015!

    • Like 17

    Model Output Discussion - 16th Jan 12z onwards - Smile While You Post!

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Paul

     

    Back to models though - and I think UKMO is too quick to dispense the cold air which can be notoriously hard to displace. Ensembles seem to be coming round to the idea of an extension of the cold, so writing things off from Thurs/Fri is premature. Perhaps 30-40% chance of an E'ly by next weekend.

     

    That said some marginality which was what we have midweek is probably more exciting than a 'straightforward' bone chilling E'ly which could turn rather dry. Marginality by its very nature has the potential to go 'wrong' but also the potential to deliver in a much more stunning way - e.g. for a small swathe of the country on Boxing Day.

     

    Weds looks good for somewhere but impossible to know where until nearer the time!

     

    Good luck to everyone this week.

    • Like 4

    Model Output Discussion 4th Dec.2013-12z onwards.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    A SSW by definition comes out of the blue, so trying to forecast one is a futile task, surely?It just highlights how uncertain future weather patterns are. At the moment the Christmas period is looking mild, but this time next week it could be looking bitterly cold. We don't know what is around the corner, we can only guess.

     

    I think sudden means quick/rapid in its change, rather than 'unpredictable'

     

    nonetheless your point that we cannot be confident of anything 10days-  2 wks down the line is entirely valid. Anyone writing off winter at this stage needs their head examining!

    • Like 5

    Weather online

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by BurwellWeatherWatch

    weatheronline looks so messy these days, and is frequently not updated correctly. For example, clicking on "uk forecast" today - you see the date correctly as 10 March, but it then talks about mild weather and 'highs of 14C in the south east".

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