BurwellWeatherWatch
-
Posts
147 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by BurwellWeatherWatch
-
-
I strongly agree with Steve here. I had the temerity to challenge Matt Hugo yesterday over his comment of a winter of extremes so far. Dont see it at all. Very average fare with the occasional moment of unusual... which in itself is pretty average.
The most distinctly unusual aspect has been rainfall which in some regions probably does count as exceptional over a 2 week period. Thusfar RJS is the only long range forecaster to come out of this winter with any great credence so far (I think... cant claim to have read every forecast that has been put out...)
tried to reply to your request for more data in the model thread yesterday, but unfortunately it was deleted.
Yes - fairly likely now that the overall stats of this winter (in CET and snowfall terms perhaps) will paint an average picture.
My point (and one that Matt Hugo seemed to agree with) was that an average CET hid rather more extreme weather patterns that have taken place.
There seem to have been very few average days.
December, whilst not exceptionally cold in the first half, had some extremely cold nights. The rainfall of the second half was surely exceptional.
January's CET - at the 8th (1 week in) was running at 8.0. Surely this is exceptional mild given that the warmest January ever was 7.5 in the 1910s.
The fact that we may plausibly achieve the (supposedly unachievable a few years ago) sub-3 CET month 2 weeks later makes this even more extraordinary. The CET this month was running sky-high and has now been massacred down to what may look like an average month but has contained naerly a fortnight of mostly sub-zero temperatures (a rare beast in itself).
Nightly mins of -12C would have been inconceivable a few years ago, but they seem to have been popping up all over the place in the last fortnight.
Obviously a certain amount of IMBYism here, and I recognise that not everywhere has had exceptional weather all the time. But I would maintain that things have been much more interesting than the 'average-ness' of the stats will suggest.
Best regards
BWW
-
The only extreme that I can see so far as we approach the 2 month mark is the amount of rain we have had. That I agree has been a feature. Precipitation amounts were very high and this may return through next week.
Elsewhere I'm not sure I agree really... temps have been pretty average and we have now had 4 - 5 days of snowfall across favoured parts of the UK, and that's pretty average too. Levels of snow in Scotland have been high, or so my Father tells me, but then again years of high snowfall in the Highlands come and go and cant really be described as extreme. We havent had a particularly noteworthy storm, nor a spell of BBQ weather mid winter either.
All seems very standard. Perhaps one or two local areas have had an extreme spell the last few days - I know the SW regional threads suggest that Hampshire, parts of Dorset, Wiltshire and the M4 corridor have had more snow than they would expect usually, but otherwise 4 - 6 inches of snow over the Peak District and other upland areas is nothing to write home about.
Pretty ordinary?
not sure I agree with this. I was thinking on the drive in this morning basically what Matt Hugo put - although he obviously expressed it far more scientifically! My thoughts were that although the CET is probably running about average(ish), there seem to have been very few average days since winter started. Some very low mins in early Dec at least IMBY (I remember driving in to minus 8 one day), then some exceptional rainfall. Then the exceptional mildness of early January, followed by what will be fairly widely a sub-zero fortnight. Minus 12 this morning I think counts as something to write home about! So - what may end up looking like a rather average winter statistically may hide the much more exciting reality that it has been.
Back to the models - and this story of extremes could well continue in the next 2-3 weeks, with possibly another period of exceptional mild to get through, and then hints of something exceptionally cold if the glimmers of northerlys/greenland highs develop into anything more conclusive.
-
is there a little cheeky fella edging into the Thames Estuary now on the radar. could this merge into something more for us later?
-
just been for a walk round the village. Absolutely epic. The depth doesn't quite do justice to the sheer persistence of the snow today. It's still pounding down over 12 hours after starting. Is it really going to stop and fizzle out tonight...
-
even if a raging zonal flow does become implemented, it does not mean that winter is over. I'm not sure why all the manic depression tonight - we're in the middle of a serious cold spell and the garden is currently filling up with snow.
~Very likely that from next weekend we are going to enter a less severe/benign/milder phase but that does not lock in anything for February. I wonder if this is going to become a winter of three months, each roughly of two halves.
1st half of December - very cold; 2nd half of December - very mild
1st half of January - exceptionnally mild; 2nd half of January - exceptionally cold.
February - which way round?
-
ECM's run is awful in FI
what an insightful piece of analysis!
Yes - operationals coming together for something of a breakdown for next weekend, but that's about all we can say at the moment. May be mild, but more likely to be just less cold. For how long is the million dollar question. Operationals again flying around with all kinds of solutions. good to see some sort of tentative agreement around 120 even if it's not quite what we want. But wasn't the last time we had perfect agreement at 120 on December 6th...
-
however if it does move in fast it will be the end to a pretty pitiful cold spell-
A few days of snow here & there...
S
maybe in some areas and had pretty little lying here. But (assuming we get to Friday) best part of 2 weeks at little more than zero, some staggering overnight lows, a gorgeous frost morning, several snowfalls - not sure that's 'pitiful' for the UK. Onwards and upwards - does look like the Atlantic will win out in some shape or form next weekend, but details are surely unclear. ECM and GEFs may help put a bit of flesh on the bone tonight but I don't think anything will be clearcut for a couple of days. In the meantime let's enjoy tomorrow, as I've enjoyed the sledging today on the inch of snow!
-
hi - just wondered if anyone had any good sledge-worthy snow/hills in the Cambs/West Suffolk area to recommend this morning? For the kids.. honest
-
ah, the view down my road tonight... happy days
-
Sunday will look marginal so i would expect that to be a non event especially if you have no snow cover
of course it might become so, but it doesn't really look it on the models tonight - so that's a bit of misinformation!
-
Is that screen grab recent BWW?
from the forecast currently on the BBC Weather page (i.e. the video forecast - updated at lunchtime I think) - so current at the time of writing!
-
lovely stuff......
-
Ens out soon. Then we can see where it sits. Has to be on the milder side doesn't it? What ever happens along day ahead. Three runs before the ECM. Lets hope the ECM run isn't confirmation of a break down.
not sure it's worth panicking too much... yet!
We have some amazing goodies on offer this week, that we would have given a back tooth for in December. However, I realise there is a touch of IMBYism in that comment, as Westerners may now not view the output with quite the same excitement.
Yes, a concern to not have ECM fully on board, though I don't think it's worth getting hung up about a breakdown even before the most exciting period of winter begins. Cold blocks and milder air are always finely nuanced and notoriously hard to predict in terms of breakdown. I seem to remember that in 2009 the Met Office were saying "no sign of the end to cold" but by lunchtime that day the cold air was rapidly dissolving away.
So: no point getting concerned yet. Let's see where the ECM sits in its ensembles in a few minutes but I won't be panicking because (a) plenty of interest in the short-term this week; (b if (a) does come true then we might appreciate a milder interlude (and as this fits perfectly with some of the experts' projections it has some credibility about it) and © it's almost certainly wrong in its detail anyway.
Enjoy the output! Even if it all departs at 120/144, this sort of week is pretty rare in a UK winter and if we hadn't been spoiled with a few mega events in the last 4 years, we would have been absolutely drooling over the next few hours.
-
Maybe/maybe not. Looking at the comparison charts for the crucial stage at midnight Saturday, you can see that the angle of the high over Scandinavia has altered slightly tilting more South/North than SW/NE. This is what led some of the gun-jumpers to proclaim that the shortwave was heading SE. If the tilt of the high changes slightly more on the 12z then SE it goes. The ECM still retains the SSE/NNW tilt and remains convinced that this will be the case. I think it would take more for the ECM to go the way of the GFS than vice versa, but the difference isn't great as you point out. I'd say 60/40 ECM at the moment.
fantastic observation. Yes- this will hopefully be rseolved on the 12s but even then it could go to the wire on the 0zs. Hopefully another twitch or more from GFS this afternoon. I'd be inclined more to 70-30 in favour of ECM, particularly in light of latest METO thinking. Wonder if IB's family will be wandering through a snow drift next Wednesday in bermuda shorts and t-shirts
But I don't think there'll be need for any humble pies or castigating of any models whatever the result: the differences are so microscale, that it's not a big deal in the grand scheme of things - just makes a huge deal for our weather in the UK!
-
Stinker? I think you must have been looking at a different run.
I don't think GFS 00z Ops was particularly great looking at it, but the volatility between the Ops and GEFS ensembles (and flip-flopping between them) gives less credibilty to them overall. The ECM meanwhile appears to be firming up towards something very special...
-
Please be careful. It wasn't a Met O release, it was a tongue in cheek comment from the man, (not the organisation) regarding the possible outcome of a run verifying!
We don't want Ian being quoted and misquoted in the national media now, do we? I hold his input too highly to allow anything to push him away from here!
I was being tongue in cheek myself... and Ian's comments are hugely valuable. But he did say it was Met Office informal briefing and put it in quote marks, hence my surprise at the choice of word!
-
come on GFS, be a good fellow and fall into line with the ECM as instructed earlier!
Seriously, some great options on the table for this weekend, and next week just could be extraordinary.
Did I really see the word "snowtastic" in a MetOffice release from Fergie in an earlier post (I realise they weren't subscribing to it necessarily, but just the use of the word was brilliant).
-
Just been right through the Netweather 18Z ppn risk run right to deep FI - not exactly Narnia is it?
Why the optimism?
Ian
because the models are showing some strong credibility to a synoptic situation that *may* be supportive for snow. as you may be aware it is virtually impossible to forecast snow detail beyond about T24-48 so talking snow specifics at this stage is futile.
-
though probably best in landfill rubbish rather than recycle bin.
i don't think the meto place any credence in cfs
-
this is what we need a bit more of
-
Looking at that NAE I feel we would see SW tracking further S than the GFS is suggesting.
Just looked at the GEFS members for my location and an increase in the number of colder runs.
http://cdn.nwstatic....bridgeshire.png
Crazy difference at this timeframe.
That's insane - at around day 5, 850s range from -7/8 to +10/11, and it doesn't seem to be one rogue run in either direction: have you ever seen that sort of spread within the so-called reliable timeframe/?
-
The demise of the PV set to continue and that is a peach of an arctic high.
http://www.meteociel...&mode=0&carte=1
Still very cold outside and has been for a good part of December so far,with snow for the central belt and much of Scotland today.This winter still has the feel of a classic style 7os/80s when the cold comes in as we approach the New year.With plenty of snow cover to our east.Historically we WILL get mider interludes from time to time.
Just thinking of when i could recall such an area of low pressure in the atlantic http://www.meteociel...?&ech=36&mode=0 ,
http://modeles.meteo...8-12-13-0-0.png
Oh,which led to this
Exactly. Impossible to draw conclusions either way at the moment, but all the pessisim is probably due to everyone expecting a Jan 2010/ Dec 2010 'event' in every winter month.
The models look pretty set on average/mild weather for at least the next week or so.
This winter has been far from uninteresting so far. 12 days in, and (round here) there have been 5 or 6 frosts including about 3 really severe (picture postcard style!) ones. Temperature was minus 6 in the rural spots driving in this morning. Last couple of days must have been virtually ice days. We had a light covering of snow last week which lasted over 24 hours. Some atmospheric fogs. Maybe expectations have been pitched a bit high.
So anything but boring so far. Nothing of great excitement on the way in the next week, though the chance for people to get out and about and do their Christmas shopping in relatively mild conditions might be a good thing. Have a hunch - based upon nothing really other than experience - that in about a week's time, there will again be interest in the 120-192 timeframes appearing.
-
held out in the alantic on the ecm t168 in other words its trying to fight back is it possible not sure because the other models dont support this outcome.
The fact that ECM shows it as a possibility tonight, means it is just that. The sheer number of possibilities being ping-ponged around the models in the last 24-48 hrs is really baffling and does show just how the UK's weather can range anywhere between 2 extremes with only the most finely nuanced adjustments on the global scale.
So don't believe anyone who pronounces the next week with 'high confidence'. It really is open to any eventuality, though it's clearly odds-on for the Atlantic to make some kind of incursion, however small or large. To what extent is the big question. Great to see the model thread a bit calmer today, and some posters who have previously shown the most entrenched bias, acknowledging the range of options on the table by next weekend. In a funny kind of way I feel a bit more relaxed now the mega-E'ly has been downgraded and can just sit back and enjoy what is unfolding. December is far from written-off!
-
When is a short wave a short wave and not a low pressure system?
i think it's one of those overused catch-all terms that is used too often without much clarity! We tend to have a word-of-the-year that dominates the model output. Faux cold was order-of-the-day a few years ago. Shortwaves was the obsession last year. Kamchatkan ridge looked like taking over the place a couple of weeks ago.
Winter Model Discussion 18Z 5/2/13 onwards.
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
it may not be as daft as this simplistic comment suggests... GFS appears to have been having some modelling issues in 72-144 range of late which makes it output questionable esp in light of ECM et al. however historically ithas been good at spotting longer range trends.
tonight we'd want it to be failing in shortterm and picking a winner in the longer term!