bluearmy

He’s using the 00z ec op would never have happened when the met office ran the show!

Only one cluster days 5 to 7 but it’s the control (effectively the eps say that the op is the best representation of the suite days 5 to 7)

Fwiw, yes - develops a cold high Atlantic in by day 14

Fwiw, the control diverges from the op post day 9 the runner is fifty miles further south and day 10 system is 36 hours later and runs through n France

This isn’t a typical January pattern wise Thomas

Reassuring to see the shortwave getting involved but the runner still through the channel

Given the lack of consistency, the gem 00z and 12z and ec 00z and 12z deserve kudos for their consistency!

There wasn’t a shortwave on the 00z run and that was squeaky bum with the runners if this run has an active shortwave and we see the runners again then I’d expect them to be further north perhaps closer to gem

Whilst fi on gfs is very much just for trends and things to note down at the back of your mind, the NH profile is very much that of a distressed vortex and the way the low heights across the Atlantic drain away is reflective of downwelling reversal waves all good signs as we head towards the end of jan. We’ve seen some fi runs which look very grim across the polar field so it’s nice to see runs which reflect what a bad place the vortex is likely to be in come late jan Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99706-model-output-discussion-into-2024/?do=findComment&comment=5003578

What route is the shortwave going to take ??

Whilst fi on gfs is very much just for trends and things to note down at the back of your mind, the NH profile is very much that of a distressed vortex and the way the low heights across the Atlantic drain away is reflective of downwelling reversal waves all good signs as we head towards the end of jan. We’ve seen some fi runs which look very grim across the polar field so it’s nice to see runs which reflect what a bad place the vortex is likely to be in come late jan

Not sure I’d describe it as ‘nice and safe’ Luke It’s bringing back themes we thought we’d dispensed with gfs similar with the ridge dropping se could do with ec not following suit later

But you wouldn’t want to see the shortwave drama days 6/8 on ec !

Gem would be a really good run if it didn’t develop the Icelandic shortwave I’m interested that despite it wanting to be more retrogressive than the Ukmo, it still gets the run back on track to an extent and upstream provides that esb ridge again later on. the ‘snowstorm’ it shows is a dogs dinner with lots of positive 850’s alongside snowfall charts - gem is not a model to trust on snowfall at all - every flake of sleet or snow seems to accumulate!

Icon has been around for donkeys - was DWD back in the day I think it’s a reasonable model - I’d rate it at gfs levels.

Gfs can’t just be ‘binned’ its clearly progressive with the retrogression at a high latitude I assume this is a complex situation- it’s possible that all the models are notably wrong at day 6/8

Seems that the ridge being ejected se has reappeared on gfs and Ukmo would also probably do similar if it had the gfs profile on the troughing gem is broadly sticking with its 00z run in the medium term

Eastern seaboard- sorry ecm Gem had it too - one to watch

Anyone notice the new ridge off the esb at the end of the icon run - that would be a good way forwards ….

Icon sending the low heights too far west day 7 which is expected. If there is to be a correction south on the trough which would be helpful then we sort of need to see the models embracing it now

It’s meant for the public commenting at a tech level wouldn’t help I guess - just put it down to presentation nerves

He specifically said that the ensembles are at a lower resolution and the chief forecaster didn’t correct him. now if we were doing that job we wouldn’t say it because we’d know it isn’t true

Two things from that a) looks like zonal is 60% + from w/c 22nd and yet the 30 dayer today doesn’t read that way b) someone needs to explain to them that the eps and op are all at the same resolution

Incidentally, the main 3 AI models seem less interested in bringing the Azores lows as far north as the U.K. Yesterday they were inconsistent so not deducing too much from this yet Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99706-model-output-discussion-into-2024/?do=findComment&comment=5002845

This is true but at the moment we have negative flow above 70N in the atmosphere which is presenting the modelling with issues. If the pattern becomes too retrogressive then the block heads too far west and the lows have a simple job to trundle across