bluearmy

That’s the glass half empty end of the envelope - yes

Updated day 4 and 5 fax charts as expected, day 4 not looking as clean as day 5 did yesterday the shortwave now picked up - we need to wait for a few more runs to be sure how this shortwave will track. Imo, it’s now become pretty much the most important feature re next week.

The first attempt by the Atlantic to push in is repelled by the detatched ridge dropping se That isn’t a standard low correcting south scenario the second attempt around day 8 is in the uncertain period. Much to be resolved re the shortwave track which will dictate how far south the low uppers get and hence how much of a cold block of air the Atlantic is coming up against. .

Not for that week last week jan has rarely looked to be of interest on the ec46 height anoms since around 29th dec runs

I thought was moving to n Italy ?.

That’s done it ! Beginning Jan afaik it won’t be the up to date output

I would expect either a continuation or a subtle downgrade ali nothing a met man likes less than uncertainty!

That was derived from yesterdays 12z it will look different this evening at T96 - maybe not too much as the issues with ridges and shortwaves is after this timescale when the northerly is ‘clean’

This what we had for Monday morning a couple days ago now it looks like it’s 48 hours later will we see other shortwaves/surpise ridges thrown in over the next two days to make it Friday ….. at some point the scandi trough will relax its push sw

Well gfs has finally lost it’s overdone retrograde of the low heights through Greenland (aka the bulge) that will help it

I wouldn’t disagree with you dave - that’s a reasoned well made post I’m just concerned about the way the pattern (not just micro) is changing, almost day to day on the models. that doesn’t provide much of a basis for any confidence

Yes - I should have noted that in the short term the trough had edged closer and further south. But if the run had continued then the consequences looked to be on the downside rather than the up. Of course we can only extrapolate and not be certain

Icon 06z run is a small step away from more amplification with a smaller Arctic ridge and some phasing to our nw looking more likely as the greeny ridge closes up compared to the 00z run just one run though perhaps I should go back to bed ! on a brighter note, the chances of a surprise rise in heights as week 2 progresses like the pub run last night have increased imo

I thought mike’s post was indicating that uncertainty has increased over the past three days. maybe I read it wrong

As I said, what exactly is the northerly now ? it was supposed to be a sustained northerly flow (possibly becoming cold cyclonic under a trough) with attacks from the Atlantic to our sw is that still the case? It all looks to be lifting too far north overnight - this is a follow on from a general slow trend to lift the Azores low further north over the past few days. Without the initial plunge of cold being entrenched (and the detatched ridge and shortwave prevent this occurring) the cold in place is unlikely to be effective in deflecting the lw Atlantic trough when it makes its way in. Let’s see how things adjust through the day. Hopefully the gem has this on a broader scale

Looking at the dogs breakfast that the nwp has become overnight, you begin to wonder if there will actually be a ‘northerly’ of any consequence away from Scotland ??? with the detached ridge heading se and the possibility that the shortwave could become a distinct feature, the Atlantic could then come in before we see any strong northerly flow in evidence for more than 12/24 hours at the end of this weekend into Monday. let’s hope that the fog clears somewhat through the day so that at least we get a new envelope in place (the old one needs chucking away) and that it’s got firmer edges! I couldn’t disagree more NWS - too much movement imo. What is the trend ? I’m really not sure at all. I did think I knew yesterday

The 00z ec looks to be the first op run in two days not to be tech displacement reversal ec 46 hadn’t gone all in on this so expect it to remain weakly positive. As discussed before - it’s really only of interest to statisticians.

Not really fussed about next Thursday - the detail will take care of itself - there will be a huge dump of snow somewhere between Glasgow and Paris between next Tuesday and Friday. Pointless analysing how and where atm. the evolution of the upper pattern post the weekend is simply on hold - no one has a scooby

Shannon meets Shannon

Pub run is as jaffa cakesed as I’ve known it this evening should really be on dry January !

Been doing this way too long to make a schoolboy mistake like that ! whilst gfs is likely wrong in the medium term, it may have strayed upon a new longer term option. There have been clusters sniffing around a scandi ridge in the extended period

The good news is that we can all go to bed!

I’m told was generally word of the day at high Holborn !

Maybe they’re all knocker ??

Fwiw, the control diverges from the op post day 9 the runner is fifty miles further south and day 10 system is 36 hours later and runs through n France Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99706-model-output-discussion-into-2024/?do=findComment&comment=5003906