bluearmy

Not sure it is early as a feature looks transient on the ens suites and I’d be surprised if we didn’t get a toppler of some sort around that time

Something that has stood out to me recently is that the strat profile is very much in tandem with the trop profile out to day 10 (ish) Gfs then completely changed the lower strat and trop beyond that. If the two remain in tandem then we should expect a scandi/ hopefully sceuro trough and the area to our west is up for grabs That leaves a wide number of solutions beyond the 4th

Gfs following ec op the control went amplified MAR in fi

@feb1991blizzard that’s quite an extrapolation feb !

Euro heights beginning to fall away end week 2 going into 3 could be a continuation of the zonal flow with a bit of amplification chucked in but that would introduce some wintriness ahead of stronger signals in mid feb

Ukmo is consistent with its idea of stalling the Atlantic and show’s disruption Be nice to see ec pick that baton up later

@Daniel* maybe a day ahead on the AO (20th against 21st). Can’t really see that the NAO is a definitive call yet as marginally neg for now

Todays updates on the bc aren’t great as they trend to cod in 7 without any decent amplification the non bc output is decent amp in 7. Weeks 2 and 3 on ec 46 (which are usually fairly reliable) are indicative of 7 and then 8 but judging amplification is going to be the issue at this range . I’d like to think that just as we had general agreement that the current run through the Indian Ocean would die in 3 (was wrong ) corrected to a high amp through 4 and 5 , so we can see this death in the w pacific overplayed too.

@northwestsnow just noise for now but it’s our task to judge if the noise is getting louder or indeed if we can begin to hear the makings of a tune …… bit like the classic Eric morecambe line - ‘ all the right notes but not necessarily in the right places’! @Met4Cast At day 8/10 you wouldn’t expect to see any HLB ?? and You can highlight the post if you want to

@StretfordEnd1996 thanks looks ok by end week 2. Assuming we don’t get an accelerated cold solution ahead of expectations, the period week 2 feb and beyond look reasonable as being of wintry interest

@Stephen W annoying not to have the clusters this morning but having viewed the stamps, I’m not seeing much difference to the 12z set from yesterday as such, waiting to see this evening if the 46 reverts to a more amplified set of charts taking the anomoly further nw glosea has clearly pushed the signal back in feb but the eps days 10/15 take precedence imo if they begin to show a faster route. Really wanted to see those clusters !

Ukmo is at one end of the envelope re beginning to drive a neg tilt to the upstream Atlantic trough by day 6 gfs at the other gem, icon and ecm in between to varying degrees you’d say Ukmo looks overdone based on the other models

@Met4Cast I’d rather hang my hat on the eps suite days 10/15 than telecons at 4 weeks! that’s very much not to dismiss the telecons as a macro tool but so far this winter only once have the eps in the extended period got the signal wrong and that was briefly for a few runs approaching the Xmas period I’d look at the period post day 8/9 and say that the Nh profile is prone to amplify but until the northern arm relents a little we can’t benefit. I’d be surprised if we didn’t see a dig of a trough over n America at some point which will allow an Atlantic ridge to go up

Plenty of despondency this evening I actually think this ties in with the best set of eps in the 12/15 day period that we’ve seen for some time There are also some ops and control runs which look to have a very mashed tpv in fi the darkest of the night is just before the dawn ……. I think

If eps 00z are as enthused on Atlantic ridging as the 12z then assume the 46 might be a bit better tomorrow. Whilst the models are no longer the same at day 15 you’d assume that there must be some synergy

Ec MJO forecast mean looks low amplitude phase 7 but if we remove the cluster that dies in phase 6 then we should get a decent arrival of amplitude in phase 7 before it heads into COD

At least everyone’s catching up with their sleep! more of the same on the nwp seems a v slow road to the removal of euro heights and the movement of the rump of the upstream vortex across to the Asian side (if that does actually happen)

You could look at it this way it’s a seven day mean Maybe the Iberian high is strong 12/15th feb and then retrogresses a bit to deliver the following week’s mean which is block over U.K. and north westwards. The ec46 continues to bring a slow retrogressive pattern which delivers at the end of feb. I assume that this mean output hides a few clusters which would be wintry earlier

Not saying much that hasn’t been mentioned in here - obvs we’ve moved on from the scandi ridge idea now but sceuro trough and rising Atlantic heights is supposed to be the direction of travel …….eventually ! certainly using day 10 charts at 70npa is not that advised. Whilst the strat should be more reliable than the trop re nwp, this year with the trop leading the dance that isn’t quite as assured as usual and certainly not low down at 70hpa

Joe b had a piece the other day illustrating a v warm sst anom that had appeared unexpectedly ne of Australia It could interfere with the expected movement of the MJO through its phases the ec today is more promising (the BC a little less so). Be interesting to see if the 46 picks that up later.

The pieces of the puzzle are there into week 3 matt but getting them to fall for our little part of nw europe is v tough

Looking through the individual stamps tells a less optimistic story. I think this is a slow process to move the tpv away from Greenland to allow ridging to our west/northwest Looks like post 10 feb atm. Anything earlier would be a bonus based on what the nwp is generally showing

Euro heights losing the euro heights remains crucial - even moreso into feb

I thought that but some runs are showing the upper strat slightly behind the lower strat and trop in the movement. I’d say the jury still out on whether anyone is in charge or if it’s all pretty well coupled. Either way, the direction of travel is clear I just noticed the Canadian Arctic prairies 850’s forecast 30c above normal days 9/10 ! (And staying ‘warm’ across e Canada out to day 16) I think the northern arm strengthened in relation to the split vortex rejoining and resetting over the Asian side. Without that the jet could just as easily re Inforced the Atlantic ridge with WAA as flattened it or run underneath a block or strong wedge. that bad luck again!

The reflected ssw last week is something that is adding to the current switch to zonal but I don’t think there’s much more to it the last few gfs op runs have been showing notable negative flows above 75N in the lowest part of the strat and trop. The last two runs have shown this to be working its way up into the strat and weakening the flow a little higher up. Infact, looking at the 12z gefs, shows the heights transferring quickly up through the strat from low down. That takes us back to where we have been for the past month or so with a very coupled atmosphere and the trop in charge of the menu.