bluearmy

@feb1991blizzard the gfs op end of the run has stretched the spv and will no doubt soon go on to split it (axis Siberia to n Canada) seems to be a very quick upwelling from the Alaskan and nw scandi ridges thrown up in the trop around day 14/15. if it is trop led then it’s irrelevant at this range. It’s effectively down to timing on several levels. not much we can deduce from it. you’d assume the 46 will garner a few more members on its 00z run.

@feb1991blizzard sincerely hope we don't end up with an SSW that actually derails cold again. still early days to see what route the lowering flow comes from there could be a mixture of slower flows due to displaced spv but also splits led from the trop if we do get the amplification in the ec46

Ec46 moving towards another reversal ???

Lots of good news in the 46 Southerly tracking jet Atlantic ridging to out nw cold surface temps showing post week 2 (unusual) hints of an ssw - at the least a weaker flow high up

If you like the ec op then you’ll lurve the control …. looking at the stamps of snow cover by day 13, there aren’t too many members in agreement

Not sure that day 10 op charts at 150 hpa (which is effectively the trop) are to be relied upon Dennis ?

Steady as she goes towards a fairly wintry looking last two or three weeks of feb - week 2 probably limited to the northern half of the U.K. to begin with but beyond that could be the whole country

Come on @Mike Poole let’s see those extended clusters …..

The Greenland ridge showing in the trop post day 10 is very brief - possibly because it has no support higher up The zonal flow for first ten days feb is stronger than average for feb but still below 35 m/s so not at a level that would likely preclude a Greenland block even with a coupled strat -trop if the spv is displaced towards n Russia

@Chesil View or the eps control which obviously follows on from the op

Ec op is fine for cold - just a little slower on its evolution than we’d like to see. Perhaps the slower route is more likely to stick ??

If the east usa trough doesn’t detatch from the vortex then I think any amplification in the Atlantic is less notable in the 9/11 day period it’s good to see runs that vary this because it shows how wide the envelope remains

ATM it’s not clear if the back end of week 2 is becoming 850 cold off the back of cold zonality or cold cyclonic. And you certainly wouldn’t discount a varied solution at this time either with the Atlantic ridge closer to the U.K. It’s a waiting game - whilst the nwp begins to evolve we just have to buckle in and those in the south U.K. hope for some very cold solutions given that we’re headed towards mid feb.

Been quite an interesting day then

@BarnetBlizzard that’s the one most charts on there now from 25th

Uodated MJO from yesterdays runs is a little more promising either getting a bit stuck in the area where 6 meets 7 or going into 7 at reasonable amplitude of course this becomes complex where the phases meet and also the month rolls over. You’d need to be looking at quite a few phase/month composites to make an approx judgement of any kind.

@Dennis I don’t think it’s worth it dennis we can see the gefs members so able to make our own analysis - and able to see that there is no Greenland ridging thus far apart from a possible transient mid Atlantic ridge headed east

Nice to see gfs pull one from the top shelf no doubt we’ll wait another few days to see something similar have to say that I’m a bit surprised not to see a few more eps members end week 2 showing wintry charts also end week 2 beginning to see the upper spv tilting towards the pole (as an Asian warming begins to show and out some pressure on it ). This could play out like the last cycle where it rotates on this side of the pole, stretches and then potentially splits if we see a trop Atlantic ridge punch upwards

@Dennis posted suddenly 3-5 febr dennis - that bar chart is based 24 Jan 00z gefs but seems to start from 26th ???

@Mike Poole yesterday was similar for a few days around the 29th aswell. seems an oddity about the model - perhaps due to the large number of members ??

@northwestsnow when the website is back up !

Eps suite in the extended is a downgrade on the 00z run with lower mid Atlantic and higher euro heights

Some crazy 850 anomolies over central and n Canada next week (+29c !!!!) ec op follows the gfs 06z op by splitting a chunk of vortex south over New England

Are we using non bias corrected MJO forecasts because they tend to look better ???

As per dennis’ post above, the profile upcoming is surely not a bad thing even if the flow is stronger with a deeper centre and lack of strat ridges