bluearmy

Yes - the op gets the southern arm distribution wrong quite early. Well we hope it does ...........

GEM holds its nerve with the first bout of WAA at day 6. Ukmo more positively tilted. Gfs - not going to lose sleep on inter run changes from gfs re the northern arm. Gem evolves very much like the eps mean from the 00z run.

Some of us bear the mental scars of the last ‘cross model agreed on falied easterly’ at just T96 which was apparently related to solar

This is why I’ve been reminding folk when the resolution of the models drops off. I think it’s ultra relevant in this upcoming reversed set up. i know people like to post individual ens members to show a spectacular pattern but they really are just for fun beyond their high res.

No need to ramp with posts like Steve’s and dave’s above And for balance, the charts from 2010 weren’t bad ....there have been others

Get what you mean not surprisingly folk are seeing the half full glass at the moment but from where I’m sitting it’s positively overflowing - being greedy would prefer to be here a month ago but hey ho ....

South nick ?

Indeed. - the fi charts never quite make it to the near term....... but then they very rarely come with ens means like we currently see .......

The eps and spreads are impressively cold by day 10 and moreso thereafter. Omega block establishing to our north (Iceland) and the stronger push against it coming from the east . i hope you all jumped on board yesterday ............

Ecm op and gefs at day 8 now on the same page. Surely it won’t be as straightforward as that!

Ecm spreads yesterday morning led us to the 12z op the ones here from yesterday evening led onto the current op (as @nick sussex noted yesterday evening i wonder if the last couple of frames will follow with the blocking signal spreading to Iceland

Will ec op day 10 get some upper heights towards Iceland as the eps clusters showed his morning ??

OMEGA ALERT !!!!

Btw, individual gefs members post day 8 running low res in a reverse flow environment - not to be trusted - use the mean as a guide

Not after day 6 nick lets see what ecm op makes of that T168 ridge in the 12z output .......

Remember that gfs op drops res after day 10 so once you get to day 12/13, it’s not worth too much analysis, especially with the reverse flow in place higher up.

Remember that gfs op is likely to be a bit strong on the northern arm. May take it a few runs to find the European models view. The gem will be of interest if it sides with the euros against the gfs

Ukmo headed the same way Incidentally, gem did well on the 00z runs with this split.

Stark changes by day 6!!!

Ignoring the satirical nature of the post (which I liked btw), dave has highlighted 20th as the point beyond which he felt it could turn wintry. He won’t be far away. I think fergie is highlighting the 18th as the point where the trop could well begin to show HLB beginning to show its hand.

Anyone who knows the gem model and it’s temp bias for w Europe will be interested in this mean chart for T2 day 16

noted that the AO tanked earlier again on the 06z gefs. Probably a good idea to see if the 12z repeats the trick. I would also note that the NAO has been far more consistent in being modelled negative, even on the less enthusiastic eps suites. Without a convincing neg AO, this neg NAO should still take nw Europe cold but the neg AO would help to bring very cold uppers into the flow.

I don’t believe JH was of the opinion that any outcome would verify! And certainly not a mild one !! i suspect many in here are fed up of the chase and being disappointed- I urge you to get on board this time !!

Pretty good assessment imo. I think the establishment of blocking to our north/northwest may be a few days earlier than you summise. The original modelling of the strat split carried the Asian chunk around the growing block across mainland Europe allowing an easterly to establish quite quickly - slowly but surely, ecm And eventually gfs took this chunk further north until it phased to our northwest with the Canadian segment extension. I think this is the easiest way to understand why we haven’t seen a quick trop response affect nw Europe.

Strange Fred - I think the cold signal is now gathering pace for week 2. Yesterday I wasn’t convinced how long the MLB would hang around