bluearmy

Constructive comment - ‘yes, it is’ note the purples turning blue by day 10 and the general high slp over the eurAsian side of the NH

It can’t get a low past the meridian ...... got to count for something given the upstream vortex and strength of the jet .... we may be looking at tomorrow’s 12z day 10 to see developments over the polar field

Way too early to judge a model that ends its run three days after the ssw. We have a rampant Canadian vortex in the trop. It won’t just disappear. Give the ec op another couple runs to get a qtr into view

Ok but it wasn’t really about the 46 - I just referenced that as having good continuity from recent extended eps suites anyway, just checked out the clusters and I think that run is probably best filed away!

The eps only go to T360 ???

the run, in it’s latter stages looks quite different to what had become consistent low anomolys to our south in the extended. The met will not review their output based on one run if mogreps And glosea are consistent. If the 00z extended eps are similar in promoting the Azores ridging ne into France is end week 2, then perhaps they will be having some second thoughts

They have been pretty consistent recently and pretty accurate too, considering their range. I wouldn’t make too much of this evenings mean output. It’s just one suite and it does show high latitude high anomolys - it’s not like its flicked to a raging pos AO/NAO combo!

Not allowed to

Given their better resolution in the strat - yes. Weak neg AO on this suite at odds with the gefs and geps. I think tomorrow morning’s run will be viewed with interest in Exeter, assumig the clusters don’t reveal anything obvious.

Extended eps lose the plot wrt to previous output and the ec 46, losing any low euro heights by the back end week 2 .......

ok - that clears things up a little. so you agree that we wont see any 'cold affects' of any qtr in nw Europe before 17/18th feb at the earliest ? I think posters were thinking that the models would suddenly flip to cold sypnotics earlier based on your thoughts.

but given the ssw is progged for the 12th, just how quickly would you expect the trop output to show some 'eye candy' ? Surely the current gfs idea of heights starting to increase end next week is reasonable ?? btw, for those who say that last weeks se uk 'snowy charts' were a figment of peoples imaginations on here, have a look at some n france webcams. its not that far away !!

@nick sussex - are you still expecting the nwp to flip QTR before day 10 ???

Given that this gfs op evolution follows the general evolution in the upper strat I would say this run is also showing a QTR

I think the hemispheric response to the ssw took over the week 2 evolution ......

That, my friends, is a qtr (although it took a few days to get going with the SSW around the 12th!) typical hemispheric strong neg AO signature would be nice to think that the gfs op has now got the strat evolution in the right place by day 10 so that the low res portion becomes consistent from now on ......

Agreed and also likely n of Scandi the strat modelling continues to rotate that split Asian vortex chunk towards w Europe around the blocking it may well be that the peak response for us would be 23rd/28th Feb although feasible that we could see something more sustained through March.

My view is that the SSW is no longer in the distance but within a week i don’t see the nwp making any sudden changes within the next 10 days i expect the staring flag to be waved around the 16/17th - how soon the cold bleeds to the mid lats unknown and does it affect us ??

The ecm nh profile shows the flow above our latitude hitting a brick wall by day 7. how that plays out for us still uncertain seeing an aleutian tidge appear again now and it could be that the Atlantic sector stays the most active/mobile for longest

I’m thinking back to the days when we have seen a ssw downwelling and I recall the Atlantic low heights filling quite rapidly as those purples and blues went to light blue and then yellows and greens within a coupe days. To use your analogy from earlier - as if someone just let the air out of the balloon. Given that we start with a strong vortex extension from Canada, I wonder if we will see something similar over the next couple of days in the week 2 output ?? Im not talking about a surge of WAA pushing heights north but imagine the day 9/10 ec op today and that upper low just can’t make eastward progress - then it just fills in situ within 48 hours !

Ec 46 shows week 3 and 4 low heights and slp nw Europe and high heights and slp to our north and nw. Tough to see how high heights are over scandi until global picture revealed. What is noticeable is -4c upper across midlands weeks 3 and 4. That’s a long way off for such a mean.

Well the only model that goes out to day 14 is gfs so I will be advising anyone I know to change from the bbc app to the met office one

Sod’s law that the 12z eps back off somewhat on the neg AO although they still go neg. the gefs and gems seem to be getting lower on it, run by run

they seem in pretty good agreement. that monster low at day 9 wants to push east at day 10. be a good test of what westerly flow is left by day 10 to see how much progress it makes against the developing block

so we either believe the models and their ens that we will see strong zonal first part next week or we don't !