bluearmy

Be interesting to see if the current Azores ridge thrown at day 7 proves to be the last as the Atlantic trough extension from the vortex adjusts further and further sw. In fact, be even more interesting to see how that ridge actually verifies given the corrections we are seeing against the cold air. Slowly but surely the mean trough is edging further sw as the blocking to the ne strengthens throughout week 2 BUT, with an SSW around the 12th Feb, we really have no idea what affects that will have on the reliability of the nwp. Of course the models will be showing it in their runs and therefore factoring it in but the likelihood that they get it right isn’t great.

I would say it’s nothing much more than inter run variances although it’s better to see it varying from the continent rather than the Atlantic! Small acorns and all that ....... we are in a situation where falling the right side of the fence makes a big difference on the ground

Wintry nirvana has been cancelled (for the time being) but it will definitely be a cold spell ......... meant to say that the gefs show the East Asian vortex becoming the main centre end week 2 as the Canadian relaxes - we have seen that prediction before this winter ......

Ec from yesterday (the 00z heights look the same ) and the 00z gefs. Note the downwelling late on from the gefs

If we leave the near term and look further ahead, the low heights to our south currently fail to verify in the 8/12 day period (hence the slight pull back of the colder mean) but they do re establish beyond. Ssw predicted around day 10 at the moment and looking at the gefs zonal flow, the trop has a slightly stronger than average flow prior to the reversal downwelling back end week 2. I would be looking at the period beyond the 16th for the hemispheric fun to commence!

I meant to add a final sentence which was ‘ would you bet against the op with 25% support against the members with 75% ? looks like you shouldn’t !!!!!!

Following from Steve’s post, the eps clusters show 75/25 against the flatter op days 5/7. By day 8, it becomes 50/50 between the former nw/se flow into Europe and a flatter west/east flow. The extended looks fairly cold and tending back to more blocked. tomorrow’s runs awaited!

The way I see it, it’s the pulling back of the Azores ridge later next week that makes the flow flatter and therefore faster = less amplification and less cold/blocked. I don’t see it being over modelled beyond midweek

Berlin charts will make fun viewing in the morning. Big split and big temp spikes. The ec op similar to the gefs

Far too much detail at this range imo

Whilst the eps are subtly different days 9/11 with the incoming Atlantic trough on a flatter trajectory, in the extended they remain broadly similar to previous though still with a bit less depth to the euro troughing (and not quite as cold). Note that the mean jet remains to our sw on a nw/se axis and at day 15, the probability of the Russian ridge pushing west into scandi increases - assume that fits with the potential post mid month as has been trailed by glosea

that's the 00z run for snow Daniel - this run isn't on the same page with no upper lows involved ! I think the morning ec run was the high point of the upcoming cold week. lets see what we can squeeze out of it. always surprises once the cold is in.

just comparing ec 12z with ec 00z and its adjusted a bit east on the azores and south on the euro trough by T100

lost our upper lows on ecm

ec showing a streamer into kent sunday night which eases up to Suffolk/London area Monday - - not heavy at the moment but shows instability

yes it does - similar to yesterdays 12z which is available via berlin

GEFS showing a continuation of the cold in general and fairly agreed with the eps. I hadn't looked at the larger scale ec46 from yesterday - safe to say that if glosea and mogreps are broadly similar, I can see where Exeter got the theme of their extended from earlier. basically, all output continues to prog low heights into Europe and with cold in situ to begin with, any borderline situations which crop up could end up falling in the right place for coldies.

Maybe not - let’s see where ec op goes in an hour perhaps there isn’t really much continuity post day 6 anyway

All true nick - I am intrigued that some of the lesser models had found the v cold evolution this morning and yet have reverted away again. Given the trend of the gfs (yes I know it’s the gfs), I would be thinking the very wintry scenario which seemed more than feasible following the ec 00z op was on slightly dodgy ground.

Order ! Order ! best wait for the gefs and ecm before ‘calling time on anything notable’ and remember that this is just one set of runs (although it’s quite normal for the more extreme sypnotics at days 6 to 9 to be watered down somewhat) Ukmo day 6 is more than ok but not quite as cold as it would have been following the 00z evolution. On reflection it’s variance isn’t much more than inter run would expect

Can I be the first to say that so far, the 12z’s are certainly not an upgrade on what has gone before and at the risk of being called a ‘moaning minnie’, heading in a worrying direction for the ‘ultras’ of the coldie community ! many of the aspects of previous runs which prolonged and even intensified the cold as next week progressed have tended in a less cold direction - and this is across all the models

Over analysis of precip charts at day 4/5 which are going to be out of date within a couple of hours ........... infact, looking at the 12z ops coming out now, I would suggest the ec 12z will not have the same upper lows that the 00z did and will therefore be less snowy for the se

First off the ranks - ICON hasn’t read catcol’s post with the Azores ridge edging things further east

At the risk of repeating myself, the prospect of non localised heavy snowfall next week is predicated on the meandering upper lows shown by ec op earlier without those we are fairly dependant on the decaying occlusions which will be, by their definition, unreliable

Get the cold in and see what happens nothing is over hyped as yet but those counting the snowflakes next week really are jumping the gun - frontal snow more predictable but not a decaying one up against a cold block