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bluearmy

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Everything posted by bluearmy

  1. bluearmy
    The spread on the eps still say that anything and everything is possible
  2. bluearmy
    this ecm run looks flatter with less waa upstream
  3. bluearmy
    Gfs fi interesting to me as it isn’t so far from the pattern we saw in first half December - Azores ridge attempting to get north, only to be flattened by the next Canadian vortex pulse. Recent modelling had indicated to me that upstream troughing in the states could well see a broad replication of the downstream pattern. Wedges !!
  4. bluearmy
    These predicted warmings in the upper strat aren’t doing much more than displacing the vortex a bit towards n Scandi
  5. bluearmy
    But it’s at day 9/10 ! Spreads on the eps uppers and heights by day 10 show that there really isn’t much point trying to make a strong prediction for week 2 at the moment. Give it a day or two to settle down.
  6. bluearmy
    6 clusters post T240 eps (all below 20%) tells you all you need to know re week 2 evolution
  7. bluearmy
    the gefs continue to eek up the zonal flow week 2. tbh, a reversal after mid feb without a QTR is not good for us. we could do with a warm early spring to help the economy, not a cold one like last year.
  8. bluearmy
    Including london - took me five hours to get home best trough in a northerly flow I’ve ever been in ! anyway, onto the gefs. Kind of get the feeling this is an evolving pattern
  9. bluearmy
    Gfs very meekly reverting back towards the persistent ecm solution. I wonder if ecm will swing a little towards current gfs or if gfs still has further to go
  10. bluearmy
    The ecm is playing with broadly the same evolution, run to run. The detail not really relevant at this range. With gfs so far away from this, I wouldn’t be over analysing just yet
  11. bluearmy
    Ec and gfs remain far apart by day 7/8. Some gefs members are headed more troughy but no more than 20%. as far as the hemispheric pattern is concerned (ec46), I wonder if we are headed back to a broad rerun of late Nov/first half Dec?
  12. bluearmy
    Given the gamut of interesting gefs runs from the 12z, the pub run will do well not to be worth watching in fi - having said that, I’m off to bed!
  13. bluearmy
    no discussion that a strong strat vortex and consequential zonal flow will make sustained HLB nigh on impossible. i'm just not sure if you are saying the strat is part of the cause of HLB or just not interfering destructively with the trop developing them. one is passive and one isn't. the ec op is evolving exactly as suggested yesterday evening re the mean and anomaly. I hope we aren't headed towards another 'warm easterly' !
  14. bluearmy
    ecm op is back to where it was 24 hours ago. rather a contrast to the gfs op at the same time (only 30mb at the surface!)
  15. bluearmy
    The MJO analogues for 7-8-1 have no adjustments for the state of the strat,. are you simply saying that because the strat is looking fairly benign, it wont interfere with the HLB signature which would follow MJO 7-8-1??? the split mid strat vortex showing on the gfs op post day 13 is certainly not reliable. one thing i've noticed over the past weeks is the trop signature sometimes mirrored right up to 30hpa on ecm days 8/10. at 50hpa, its often. the next run, if the op is different in the trop, the mid strat pattern is also different. that's not something which in previous winters is so evident above 70hpa outside of the sustained big features (like a Aleutian ridge)
  16. bluearmy
    I doubt the eps mean with 30 more members is going to show anything like that at T360 ! especially given the rather varied clusters from earlier. note that 3 or 4 gefs runs end up two or three days short of wintry nirvana so the 12z suite is probably better than it looks on the diagrams
  17. bluearmy
    No - that’s the standard winter bar for the uk actually-generally sub zero uppers is pretty good when compared to much of the past few winters !
  18. bluearmy
    can you expand on the strat forcing and how it will influence the pattern ?
  19. bluearmy
    The 06z gefs have promised more than the subsequent suites have delivered recently so maybe best to put the salopettes on hold - however, they do fit in the envelope provided for by the broad ens pattern as discussed
  20. bluearmy
    Didn’t take long for a gfs op to find the theme from the week 2 eps mean
  21. bluearmy
    Gefs are looking to lift the upper zonal flow again in week 2. Not overly convincing at the moment (not every run does so) but the fact that they do so at all is a bit of a surprise given the Berlin charts at day 10
  22. bluearmy
    An interesting view which should be elsewhere I guess - having a coldie perspective doesn’t seem to hinder him predicting warmth but he does. But the coldie in him does mean he publicises looking for cold in his bloggs etc. it doesn’t mean he predicts it against what the modelling is showing though. and he does have a nack of looking at the extended modelling and correctly pointing out where it is likely wrong. Note the gefs and gfs drifting towards the eps perspective on the ridging days 7/9
  23. bluearmy
    The gefs couldn’t be more solid on the ridge as they leave high res at day 8. The eps less keen. Wonder which will be right
  24. bluearmy
    I don’t think either model is that clear on what it thinks re the NAO
  25. bluearmy
    Expect a fair old temp spike on the Berlin charts tomorrow morning at 10hpa over the pole
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