bluearmy

Big temps difference on the latest ec op for ththe end of the week down here compared to previous runs Not much above freezing here Thursday and fri now

At day 5 it disrupts se which means that the front that got to the east of the meridian by day 6 on the 00z run has now evaporated in the Irish Sea at the same time on this run I would have thought that whatever is modelled to follow re split flow is questionable given this change ??

As others have commented, I am intrigued by the number of gefs which dive the trough quite early on - we usually expect the gefs to be quite progressive. Of course there are plenty that are progressive and closer to the op but I wonder if ecm will go the same way? After all, it has been keenest to take the trough south thus far.

We can’t expect a lrf to pick out a single slider event though it was part of a general countrywide cold spell which wasn’t really picked and Scotland, in particular, had a cold month. it’s not a terrible lrf but neither is it overly accurate against climatology.

And it’s out of date following the 00z run

I'm inclined to wonder if thats altogether true - not that it's going to exit stage left but a split will deny it some 'oxygen' - ecm well west again with the diver .............

The eps really aren't correcting much West now. if anything they have gone as far as they will and the slight movement at day 6 is east. whilst the op is correcting the dropping trough west I shall continue use to hold my fire on this but by tomorrow evening I expect to be able to pull down the curtain on any beasterly making it further than the German border and deciding whether we will end up in a battleground as the trough drops se. What did catch my attention is the mean split vortex days 10/13 to our north with the split led from the scandi ridging - that set up could show some interesting members ,...............

Well ecm breaks through by sat and Sunday shows the front just getting to the east. Seems a reasonable call at present then significant themes from that ec run are it doesn't completely write off the ukmo and it gets the diving trough west of the meridian

It should be noted that there has been little cold air associated with this blocking as it has been modelled thus far if deeply cold uppers are advected into the equation around the south of the block then breaking it down becomes even more of an issue for the models

Well that was based on yesterday’s 12z run and they generally don’t amend the raw output unless they really feel the need to If the 12z run is consistent then tonight’s issue will be worth waiting for to see if they go with it

need to be careful re the under estimation of the block though Looking at the clusters for next Sunday and comparing them with output from three days ago shows the emphasis has changed a little to show the trough not getting as far north or east. Make the same adjustment on those day ten cluster charts you posted and they may look a little more interesting. I really don't see a beaterly making it to here but I could be talked into the pattern shown in today's ec op being 300 miles further south and a hundred and fifty west ........ wouldn't be absurd to see that in the day 7 clusters today, would it?

Gfs different to the east so no CAA It changes by day 6 compared to its 00z run but we know this model reverts in small steps so it could look quite different by the morning

It's only at T66 - how can you see any obvious differences ?????

Absolutely impossible to have a strong opinion based on evidence and experience. nothing has changed over the past day really - the latest eps are indicating, for the first time I can recall on this evolution, that the scandi ridge has not sharpened as time has ticked down bit this is around Day 10/12 so not so relevant. If you place your confidence is the ecm/ukmo idea of getting the cold uppers heading west then the ecm solution of Atlantic trough meeting beast and phasing the low heights makes some sense but where does that happen? peeps may not want to hear it but the only sensible option re week 2 is to watch for a few days and wait to see where this goes.

The control developed in a way steve hoped the op would. take the broad themes and little has changed in the past twelve hours. Nothing has left the table and nothing new has landed

Yep ecm from 10 days ago was miles away ................

Almost as far as the Low Countries and it’s the first time the eps spread has shown a big area of low uppers heading west the spread on heights is so vast by day 10 that I expect the clusters later will reveal a wide gamut of options !!

Slowly, slowly ..... but granted this run means very little in isolation ...... It pulls together lots of the current themes but they could fit together plenty of other ways

I showed you this morning with the uppers spread that the eps aren’t keen on getting the trough past the meridian after the first push The Scandi upper ridge needs to remain strong and then the Atlantic trough can’t really just blast through

It’s a conundrum - not enough WAA and the block sinks, too much and the block sinks ........... yep - it’s unlikely !

More strat jam in 16 days Bobby note ukmo at day 6 should strengthen the scandi ridge at day 7 with that vertical WAA up the west side

Fi gem and gfs quite different and gem makes more sense keeping the Scandi upper ridge however, it also brings uppers around -22c as far south as Alabama !

Re the ukmo being different - if it weren’t for the day 7 chart I wouldn’t be that interested but it clearly goes on to undercut so let’s see what the 12z does given the Exeter update you would expect it to revert a bit

It's happened before ..............

The sw/ne based on their more unsettled further nw than se