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bluearmy

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Everything posted by bluearmy

  1. bluearmy
    The eps clusters are plentiful and reveal Shannon in all her glory ........ brief scan reveals more lean towards the gefs solution than the raw mean/anomoly shows days 8/10.
  2. bluearmy
    Note that whilst the detail is impossible to pin down, this run is much more credible than the 00z op by day 9/10 as it sits pretty well in the gefs anomoly
  3. bluearmy
    I'm not being serious (well only a bit) - just making a general point that even if we do draw an easterly flow for a few days, there is no certainty that it will pack any real punch. Not that it needs to if there are fronts approaching from the west but a convective easterly will probably require a decent scandi ridge that survives a few days to advect deep cold around the back - most output that build a scandi high sinks it se into Russia drawing in a sou'easter which would obviously be surface cold.
  4. bluearmy
    Yeah - could see a warm easterly shortly !!!
  5. bluearmy
    Do you mind if we don't ..... will be extremely boring in here 90% of the time if we do. Accept that op charts beyond day 6/7 shouldn't be dissected and over analysed. Rarely happens anyway. Most people on here know that an operational past day 7 is not going to verify. But it should still be discussed as there is merit in working out what parts of the output are more probable than others etc etc. I think this place does a pretty good job in expectation management. the mood changes - sure, but that's just the little kid in all of us desperate to see snow covered vistas from our front door.......apart from knocker and secretly he does really ..........
  6. bluearmy
    Dave is right ......... current diretion of travel is that next weekend will fail to deliver the potential that seemed possible past few runs - this could easily reverse next suite but note that the overall trend thereafter remains the same with the gefs slightly better for cold advection than the eps in the extended. The eps with a nw/n component whilst the gefs look to have more promise of ne with higher heights across our north. infact the gefs around day 10 don't lose the se digging signal as much as the eps do. Given that yesterday the eps clusters swung in both directions with the 00z sending more ne and the 12z se, this still has some way to go. We could 'lose this battle' but still easily win the war !
  7. bluearmy
    if anyone is tempted to look through all 50 members and count them then I suggest they don't bother - somewhere between 0 and 20% support for slp > 1030 mob over scandi days 10/15. That's not increasingly with any gusto, run to run.
  8. bluearmy
    I noted the number of members that amplified the n Pacific ridge well into the Arctic - at least two managed to make the full neg AO transfer to scandi block. far removed from the strat zonal onslaught we might be expecting to have manifested itself lower down by days 10 thru 16 ...............
  9. bluearmy
    significant ? the control cluster (which had an easterly in the extended ) has approx 16% support
  10. bluearmy
    if you saw the 00z then rinse and repeat
  11. bluearmy
    Ec a team day 9 seemed certain to split the jet energy more se than ne and yet at day 9 it went more ne. That's in line with the biggest eps cluster from the previous suite which maintained the general mobile flow. Only just the biggest cluster and I wouldn't be surprised if Day 9 tomorrow following the same day 8 was sliding/undercutting. The models just don't know how to resolve this area of higher heights. Currently looking unlikely that a sustained scandi ridge would form but you couldn't possibly discount it.
  12. bluearmy
    Re scandi high - the eps do show up to 40% support of a surface high up there in the extended period and we can see that there is a small upper ridge on the means and not surprisingly more notable on the clusters. Point is that at the moment, it seems to be fairly transient in nature if it does pop up. but we also know from experience that the nwp generally fails to model a scandi ridge very well - mind you, the upgraded models have had precious little experience ! All leads back to the uncertainty
  13. bluearmy
    The eps clusters back up my musings - anyone predicting what the second half of week 2 and into week 3 will deliver is tossing a coin. There are some that are contracted to do so - good luck!
  14. bluearmy
    As I posted yesterday morning, it's pointless trying to resolve what happens with the ballon of heights thrown up - ops and ens will do various things with it for a few runs yet before honing in on a broad solution. And even that will be subject to change as we know the modelling tries to push any blocking (even transient) away too quickly. Remaining unsettled seasonal for the foreseeable with a few milder interludes chucked in further south. still no sign of the increased strat zonal flow affecting the trop by day 16. (Hemispherically speaking - we are Ina very mobile area !)
  15. bluearmy
    Week 3 is generally worth taking notice of if it's got continuity from current week 2 eps. you can make an informed punt on whether to bother with week 4 based on what you think of week 3. Beyond that it's worthless without clusters which we don't have. As you say, the troughs east side USA and w Europe now showing at day 10 were absent just two days ago on the eps. If anyone has the inclination, the Icelandic site has all previous output available which means you can go back and view the ec46 from three and four weeks ago to see what they looked like - mind you, it's tough to picture the seven day mean upper pattern and anomolys we have seen the past three weeks. Should be obvious how much of a bust the mean ec charts are though.
  16. bluearmy
    ec 46 continues in the same vein as previous run - no doubt broadly agrees with mogreps/glosea given the 30 dayer. Our trough into Europe retracts nw, week by week allowing heights from the Atlantic to spread around to our south to reach the Russian ridge and give a very +nao look to weeks 3 onwards. Uppers go above normal by the end of week 3.
  17. bluearmy
    Avoiding the development/non development of any scandi ridging, the way the 18z pushes the trough se day 10/11 is bang in line with current ens guidance. I expect that being the gfs it will go too much east but we'll see
  18. bluearmy
    It looks pretty good wrt the general nwp at day 7
  19. bluearmy
    The eps 10/15 mean/anomoly are pretty well the same as the gefs 10/15. The eps bit more sceuro trough and less heights ne scandi/nw Russia but crucially across the Atlantic and to our south and southeast no real difference. Looking at the 6/15 dayer, Exeter are very much able to cover most bases on the unsettled theme. there should be plenty of opportunities for runners/sliders nw/se in that set up. Winter continues although sadly for many, we are still on the eastern edge of an ocean fed by the Gulf Stream with a vortex centred just west of Greenland for the foreseeable. No raging easterly likely but I prefer what we are looking at as less can go wrong and plenty of posters will see snowfall over the next fortnight.
  20. bluearmy
    If the gefs don't soon begin to hone in on a pretty compact strong vortex then will seem a bit odd?? Plenty of 12z members show either HLB evident or v amplified patterns
  21. bluearmy
    Thanks - I knew you would find one! What about unprecedented after November begins ? Pointed taken re the Aussie view - it's in their backyard!
  22. bluearmy
    The gefs 12z have decent continuity with the previous run - jet angled nw/se into Europe with the uk probably under the mean trough - could easily be fairly wintry. in fact, given that we are looking at a strong zonal flow heading down through the strat by day 10, surprising how the AO and NAO manage to be negative in the 11/16 day period and there is plenty of northern blocking evident on the gefs members. maybe day 16 is too soon for the trop to respond to the increased flow higher up. That goes against the theory that we won't see any n blocking evident before day 16.
  23. bluearmy
    Registers at average +1 so hardly a roaring return. TBH, I was taken on recent suites across extended ens modelling that nao was fairly neutral and on the gefs actually more negative than positively neutral
  24. bluearmy
    As @catcol pointed out yesterday, the SOI running heavily negative is nino rather than nina. Just as last year when we saw the neg QBO fail (unprecedented or very rare ??) we are now seeing things happening in the Pacific which we haven't before. Caveat being since we have been recording this stuff!
  25. bluearmy
    Doesn't look good does it! The ec does show the zonal flow relaxing somewhat up top by day 10 but so does the gefs and they then reboot it. Lower down and the flow to 100hpa looks pretty solid. the trop output at day 16 doesn't show too many compact hemispheric raging vortices so coldies have to hope that the same is true post the second surge or that some strategically placed wedges do the trick for nw europe
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