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bluearmy

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Everything posted by bluearmy

  1. bluearmy
    Just a note that latest Berlin chart day 10 hints at the core of the vortex heading back towards 50N. That would be better although the residual surge of flow down through the strat is still to manifest itself on the trop output end week 2 and into week 3.
  2. bluearmy
    Would have thought he would have learned from the last slider that the ecm was likely the best guidance for placement of the system - anyway, Tuesday nights low is modelled again to be more round and less flat which leads to a smaller snow area (add the twist ne as it approaches the continent ) and the flow ahead of the occlusion is less continental and more North Sea. Thursday looks more akin to the slider of a couple of weeks ago with several lows sliding se along the next occlusion. That's got a way to go yet. Plenty to watch whilst we aren't working!
  3. bluearmy
    Looks like it comes overnight xmas into Boxing Day - probably a few showers off the irish Sea ?
  4. bluearmy
    What’s up with them this time ? remember they show all falling snow as settled with no melt
  5. bluearmy
    Snow threat again from ecm op for Wednesday morning, north of approx the M4. too early to take too much notice but worth watching
  6. bluearmy
    Is it to do with the land mass kev ?
  7. bluearmy
    Fake news! Less snow than the 00z run from that slider as it runs a similar track but has a slightly less elongated shape and turns ne a bit earlier than the previous run the main news to take is the track is consistent - the shape of the feature etc is yet to be decided latest T72 fax shows the low centre the same position as the previous T84 - further north than ecm
  8. bluearmy
    Meteociel ukmo is currently faulty before anyone comments ....
  9. bluearmy
    does that tell us how high the bar currently is ? we aren't past the point that one of the models pulls a rabbit out of the hat, given the upcoming amplified polar ridge. However, I would say today's 12z will take us beyond and then coldies are looking for either the flow to remain flat and therefore the upper trough to be on average, south of the uk allowing for runners in the base or possible sliders or for a decent amplification in week 2 of the Azores ridge which could evolve from a MLB to something more interesting. given the forecast strengthening of the strat flow, I think the latter isn't a great option although it could lead to cold settled which some would prefer.
  10. bluearmy
    As week two ticks by, any westerly upper flow looks to lose a little impetus John. Agreed that slack isn't the right description although compared to the speed at which systems are racing west to east later this week, it does look a little more relaxed.
  11. bluearmy
    It is the same feature - just further north as gfs and ukmo
  12. bluearmy
    They aren't a secret - they came out before 7am !
  13. bluearmy
    Just looking at the eps clusters and there is a decent chance that the flow stays pretty flat across the Atlantic rather than pivot sw/ne as per the current direction of travel. As the suite progresses it becomes quite bipolar with a strong azores ridge covering much of the w Europe which eventually drifts to become almost sceuro by day 15 (with a capital E rather than S) as against a moderate westerly upper flow continuation hence the mean is pretty useless on the 00z suite in the extended as it struggles to cover both bases.
  14. bluearmy
    The data that goes into the models is not the same !! Ecm has more starting data than gfs. I believe some time ago gfs was run with ecm starting data and it performed a little better back to this potential ‘slider’. This is more complex than last time. The push against the system comes ostensibly from the Pacific ridge into the pole and the Asian vortex lobe being pushed more towards Scandi rather than being able to traverse as usual to Canada. Watch the NH view to see the movement of everything. the models are unlikely to have the finer details worked out on that yet and the final destination could be quite a long way from what currently is being shown
  15. bluearmy
    I am often surprised how it doesn’t require embedded cold for several days to bring a snowfall however I looked at the ecm precip this morning and it reminded me of the system that followed the snowfall the other week when the forecast intensity of the precip on the Friday 12z run dictated the amount of snowfall shown. Once that intensity dropped out, so did the white stuff (away from elevation) i am in broad agreement with you that if this doesn’t get much north of the midlands there will be little snowfall from it (given current modelling - if the ridge builds a bit and forces the trough to elongate then ......)
  16. bluearmy
    almost no difference looking at the precip n extent it looks north of ukmo and is currently the most northerly of all models on this feature (again!)
  17. bluearmy
    Ecm op has me in two ice days wed and Thursday. That's colder than a couple weeks ago with 4" snow on the ground! Admitedly it's going to be an outlier (or close to) on the London temps later but the cold is there Boxing Day onwards until the Iberian dome of heights appears end of the week to change the axis of the flow with the tough digging further west.
  18. bluearmy
    The predicted rate of increase in the zonal winds around 60N high up are as rapid as I have ever seen. certainly between 1 and 10hpa. the core of the zonal flow will certainly be 50/60N rather than the 40/50N that we have seen thus far. just as rapid decelerations leave a legacy of wave breaking down from the strat into the trop over a period of months, does the same apply to rapid accelerations in what has been a generally benign environment thus far? I always feel that big changes in quick time such as we are about to see must have ramifications - that doesn't discount an SSW btw. what goes up etc etc
  19. bluearmy
    Forget scandi highs - the trend on the eps (and gefs tbh) is raising heights over Europe as week 2 progresses although the gefs are still clearly remain more interested in general height rises to our east/northeast than the eps. got to be right eventually!
  20. bluearmy
    the ec control was marginally south of the op though the ens don't see this feature in that position as yet (checking out the mean snow chart) The latest T84 fax has the system approaching sw Ireland about 100 miles north of the ecm op. The ecm op showing signs of elongating the low in a similar way to 'slidergate' the other week! The 12z output is going to be interesting to see where the envelope on this thing is.
  21. bluearmy
    BB1962 - you can't rely on seeing the location of the vortex from the temp profile. Heights are visible on instantweathermaps although take care the further the run goes as output becomes less reliable (better than the trop the higher up you go but post day 12/13 I would be v cautious re over reliance on detail and rely on continuity)
  22. bluearmy
    Isn't it a bit far away to be getting excited on a 'will it/won't it' scenario ?? mwb - the extended clusters really aren't convincing me - I have no idea which is more likely (or a blend of two of them.)
  23. bluearmy
    Pretty much the same as its previous run - possibly a tad further north actually!
  24. bluearmy
    Finally the eps manage to find more than 10% scandi high mslp by day 15. Judging by the position at day 14 it would be nearer 10 than 20 % !! with the anomolys less marked on the latest eps, I'd say the uncertainty as week two progresses is growing
  25. bluearmy
    Difference from previous run - it just shows a slightly less deep low anomoly in that position than the last run !
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