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bluearmy

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Everything posted by bluearmy

  1. bluearmy
    Gfs op takes a gefs 06z from the top shelf later on! certainly an evolution that’s been advertised off and on across gefs suites recently
  2. bluearmy
    Whilst it’s always tricky to second guess a run early on, the 12z is less likely to get the Alaskan upper ridge as far into the pole as the 06z did- hence week 2 should progress with less upstream amplification and less dog south of the jet. More akin to the 00z than the 06z
  3. bluearmy
    not how I read it - they don't have a clue in reality so covering their backs. they cant see a slow moving pattern in week one, that's for sure !!
  4. bluearmy
    At day 10 I wouldn’t disagree - certainly across part of Scotland. Rather different in origin to yesterday - these low heights extending down from our northeast rather than crossing the Atlantic ! this run showing what is achievable if the big chunk is forced away from Canada by the extending ridge but it’s low res so questionable in the extreme !
  5. bluearmy
    Not really although I think the extended Atlantic trough from Canada to the uk is unsustainable for more than a week my attention currently on whether the Alaskan ridge can get far enough towards Greenland to keep the chunk coming around from e Asia away from getting to Canada around day 10 the spreads say no but the ridge is more marked on the op
  6. bluearmy
    De bilt just on the edge of the western spread of the northerly flow further east at day 4/5
  7. bluearmy
    With the Oceans around us, of course - however, the small chunk that visited us in Dec 2010 was not modified enough and everyone was content to use the wording.
  8. bluearmy
    Traditions? technicals? like I said, it was once a proper part of the vortex and perhaps it's technically speaking still part of the vortex but if we are to start referencing the vortex being over the uk with uppers barely below zero and thicknesses around 540 dam then it's going to make it difficult to manage expectations on here in the future! Thansk anyway ?
  9. bluearmy
    A better gfs fi for coldies with the vortex drifting west six clusters on the eps post day 10 (not surprising really ) better end to the day for coldies
  10. bluearmy
    but it's an op at day 8.5/9 knocker ....... not worth the effort imo. Just an illustration of the uncertainty as evidenced in the day 10 spreads I posted earlier
  11. bluearmy
    Pin the tail on the donkey! The ecm ens at day 10 is another model which is moving towards re amplifying the Pacific closer to the western end of the aleutians.
  12. bluearmy
    See the mslp and z500 and the corresponding thicknesses the vortex in canada with a smaller chunk in e Asia over kamkatchka
  13. bluearmy
    They may have been once upon a time but they are long since warmed out by the ocean check out the thicknesses
  14. bluearmy
    The vortex isn’t anywhere near the uk ? just deep lows passing incidentally, Exeter have been predicting a more mobile flow after Xmas for a few days now
  15. bluearmy
    There are four cfs runs - the other three are different for that initialisation time. I have more faith in a dice and a hat than the cfs!
  16. bluearmy
    states much uncertainty (even more so than before I think) and removes the snow word from the last sentence. That presumably a reflection of glosea removing its ssw latest mjo forecasts from NOAA models seem to drift the signal in phase 6 for a while. Ecm not updated since Friday
  17. bluearmy
    I thought yesterday's 12z was better clustered cold karlos
  18. bluearmy
    Following on from earlier, the clusters late on reflect a growing height anomoly to our north later week 2 with the Alaskan ridge already in place and Russian beginning to edge north. we need the Russian ridge to hold firm against the Atlantic onslaught, to drive this ridge which will have strat implications re wave 2. also, note the general onset of draining of low heights at the end of the gfs op run. Nothing specific but a possible trend beginning ? plenty to watch and possible surprises in the more mobile flow
  19. bluearmy
    Zonal flow on ecm is picking up at 60N as the focus of the strongest flow right up top shifts north from 40N where it's been for a while. Of course that's going to increase the U wind numbers that we generally see on graphs - how far down the increased flow gets at 60/70N is the question. The ecm is working the upper vortex clockwise from east Asia towards n scandi by day 10, getting a little closer to the pole with time. Evidence that a trop wave two is coming in around then days time, courtesy of the Pacific ridge and developing Russian, downstream of the strong Atlantic jet running into w Europe.
  20. bluearmy
    We are seeing a propensity on here to be extrapolating from op runs post day 8. Once they get to this range they are more than likely wrong. some of the features they have showing will of course verify but which ones?? that's why, despite them getting a hard time in here, the ens means and anomolys are used. These verify on the upper pattern better than the ops after day 6. As far as the 00z suites are concerned, little evidence that cool to potentially cold zonality is avoidable. Possibly stormy but also possibly very wintry if the upper trough gets far enough south and we see runners in the base of the trough. Higher ground in the north will see snow in cool zonality in any event. How the amplified Pacific plays out remains the question - signs that we may see ridging towards kamkatchka but this likely to just pass back across to Siberia rather than get towards the pole. cross model ens guidance says we should be left with a polar high somewhere north/northeast of Alaska in a couple of weeks. Can this ridge across towards Greenland? No evidence that the eps are at all interested in any scandi highs in two weeks.
  21. bluearmy
    Same theme as previous
  22. bluearmy
    Credit where credit is due judging by the evolving ecm ens runs - the feedback in the se states due to the rockies as discussed a few days ago re joe B - he looks to be right
  23. bluearmy
    Incidentally, the ecm op from this morning was from the smallest eps cluster by the time Xmas day arrives and a couple clusters were with a little more nw/se jet axis.
  24. bluearmy
    It could be far enough east to allow a cold trough to settle acros nw Europe whilst a the same time driving WAA north and providing the wave 2 (with the neg EPO ) we may need to split the strat vortex ........
  25. bluearmy
    Depends whether a strengthening upper vortex is worth worrying about BW - the displaced chap hasn’t allowed the upper strat imprint to make it to the trop re Canadian heights so perhaps if it gets closer to the pole there is a chance it could be split by some wave 2 which we could see as the Atlantic ramps up and no doubt collides at some point with the Russian ridge. Knowing our luck a split would leave something nasty in a bad place upstream but you never know !
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