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bluearmy

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  1. bluearmy
    You can follow the small cluster at T72 fronbthe other side of Siberia to see the current favoured spot for the PVTL to arrive this side of the NH. Just off n e Greenland by day 8. Need that further south and east
  2. bluearmy
    It is? Anyway, rather than debate gfs v ecm I think we’re on the way to talking wedges again remember what happened last time we talked wedges ........ this ec op run shows how difficult it’s going to be to stop the energy from the Siberian lobe heading west at too high a latitude to stop us merely feeling the force of the northern arm in its wake. When there is a transfer of vortex fr M Siberia to Canada on our side of the pole it is nearly always accompanied by a strong pulse of the northern arm heading across the Atlantic. It’s not over by any means but it’s a tough gig to pull off !
  3. bluearmy
    The new ec op day 7 looks very much like yesterday mornings day 10 on upper pattern i love an evolution that accelerates by 36 hours, especially a cold one !
  4. bluearmy
    Given the updates we know where the clever money is - the ecm later will be notable for having a view post day 6, assuming it gets to day 6 like it’s previous run over the polar field. With a polar high there is always the chance that the nwp in general could be ‘caught on the hop’ Unlikely but possible
  5. bluearmy
    Nick’s acronym polar vortex transfer lobe
  6. bluearmy
    A very interesting set of 12z suites emerging with the anti PVTL in full swing day 5 !!!!
  7. bluearmy
    It’s more about the polar ridge than the Atlantic ..... that’s why even if it showed in every model this evening it would still be the least favoured outcome !
  8. bluearmy
    Now - following on from the ec Synoptics of pushing a polar ridge into Greenland and some mid Atlantic heights at a smiler time, the ICON model began sniffing around this on its 06z run to T120 and the 12z dribbling out is going a little further this way wonder if the ukmo might find this solution - would be a potential game changer if it strengthened ......
  9. bluearmy
    I don’t see it as a ‘done deal’. There is no guarantee that an increased zonal flow will downwell to the trop. And as the vortex returns to its more traditional place and potentially stretches, it could be prone to a wave 2 attack. However, time will be ticking on and aside from a quick trop response which isn’t a given, it could just lead to a cold spring as last seasons beg Feb trop slowdown likely did.
  10. bluearmy
    Not much doubt that the upper vortex is returning closer to its home, likely to end up ne Greenland towards Svalbard Ecm now forecasting the 60N U wind picking up to approx 40 m/s although I expect we will see renewed trop waves from the hemispheric amplifications having an effect some days later and already signs of a reflective wave 1 high up as ineritus mused yesterday.
  11. bluearmy
    If the Azores high wasn’t a semi permanent feature centred generally around the Azores it would be called something else .............. cherry picking ens runs from week 2 is never a good sign ........
  12. bluearmy
    NAVGEM ? Really ?? the polar ridge from the neg EPO has been a given for over a week now, courtesy of x model ens guidance. Ecm op has been most gung ho getting this over the pole - I have a view that the ops could be better on resolving this feature than the ens which is counter intuitive at the range we are still looking at. I wouldn’t be making any assumptions on what happens after day 7 at the moment
  13. bluearmy
    Just surfing around the edges NWN.
  14. bluearmy
    This is something that is generally accepted wisdom as it’s an unusual evolution that the models are not used to - however, I wonder how much scientific basis there is for this and whether the improvement over the years with each upgrade may have made this viewpoint redundant ?? We don’t have too many chances to see how they do with this feature !!
  15. bluearmy
    You’re right NWS - too academic for analysis The Atlantic profile will be different as there is a further push of WAA from the pacific lets get the detail on any polar amplification to day 5/6 first as they have a habit of not counting down very well !
  16. bluearmy
    It does look pretty climatological Nina knocks - perhaps a bit too straightforward on the mean. Of course, if the op is sniffing a direction of travel then all bets on that mean are probably off ........ for the time being, I wouldnt back the op against the vast majority of 49 ens runs @ 14km resolution! (I say 49 because the control is similar over the pole to the op )
  17. bluearmy
    The 18z takes the central USA plains temps to numbers which could be a record low ??.uppers of -30c into n Kansas/Missouri !!!!
  18. bluearmy
    The 46 on the limited view we get on Icelandic site shows the low heights becoming more nw/se as high anomoly grows to our ne - will await the global view on that the vortex seems to be heading towards Baffin as higher anomolys show over Newfoundland
  19. bluearmy
    Looking at the latest Beeb 10 pm forecast, seems they expect the trough to get to the east and a lee northerly to come down later next week. MOGREPS must be on this page - need to revisit the eps clusters ..........
  20. bluearmy
    I assume he is pointing out that the strat currently has a ridge in the west of n America whereas the trop does not. In ten days, the trop has a big n Pacific ridge. If you work the strat pattern west then you see that pattern in the trop with the ridge in the aleutians and the mobile flow across the Atlantic. it's still a wave one pattern although there are isgns of some wave two appearing
  21. bluearmy
    Indeed the charts are mean and the clusters will reveal later how much support there is for dropping the jet far enough south to allow this ridge to back west across the top
  22. bluearmy
    The 46 gets a fair bashing on here - i suspect week 3 is worth attention and perhaps week 4 at a push but thereafter it’s surely of no use to us without clusters and in house meto models to compare with the extended eps are playing around with a more defined e sceuro upper ridge - probably a response to the e Atlantic trough the spreads on the eps lose the definition on the Alaskan ridge to greeny by day 8 with no guidance beyond there. Day 10 reveals a solid s greeny low height blob and the jet having every chance of heading well south into Iberia
  23. bluearmy
    If it evolves like the ecm 12z then it clearly will do the coldies good you aren’t going to avoid the Pacific ridge so without an amplification into the pole (hopefully nearer Greenland than Siberia) then you’re looking at a strong jet into the uk locale
  24. bluearmy
    Can ŵe drop the fixation with Xmas day?? Ecm won't drop the polar ridge and the zero isotherm pretty well making it to the pole day 7 no PVLT on this op run! Let's see how the Canadian vortex receives its re inforcements. Rather a strange run in the n Pacific by day 8. Would be nice to see the eps take on the theme of the Canadian lobe becoming isolated
  25. bluearmy
    its likely a much more reliable chart than the day 16 anomaly you posted !
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