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bluearmy

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Everything posted by bluearmy

  1. bluearmy
    maybe something, maybe nothing the cluster from the 00z eps at T204 which best represents where we find ourselves at T192 12 hours later becomes the smallest at 16% post day 10. It's the one which keeps the upper ridge amplified across the uk and eventually establishes further ne over w scandi by day 15. probably nothing and looking at the eps mean/anomoly, I doubt it's grown too much on the 12z suite
  2. bluearmy
    absolutely deserved ................ although we need to see where the potential solution is going
  3. bluearmy
    ecm should be much more amplified ne of the uk T168/T192 as per the 00z eps spreads sorry - should be day 8/9, not 7/8
  4. bluearmy
    whilst we have seen amplifications this season, they have generally been short and flattened fairly quickly - ecm is the model picking this up before the other models which sustain for too long however, this flatter pattern off the esb has also meant it has failed to amplify enough, especially in the 8/10 day range
  5. bluearmy
    Now you have really confused me gfs never showed snow in the south apart from its original undercut slider runs which generally went past the sw of the country and were just sypnotically wrong
  6. bluearmy
    A re writing of history in favour of gfs ...... if this day 7/8 amplification verifies then it is the first time the ecm has been consistently wrong thus far gfs has been less bad than previous years but to say its wiped the floor with the ecm really isn’t correct Most of the ops post day 7/8 haven’t been good The gefs suite splits the vortex Asia across to Alaska at the end. The height rise to our north/northeast gathering pace for the new year
  7. bluearmy
    More randomness from gfs in fi and yet the evolution has a familiar look to it - just five hundred miles further northeast than last weekend due to the upstream forcing
  8. bluearmy
    That was for an extended period of months though ?? jan could have a very cold three weeks and that forecast could still be spot on gfs 12z slower off the esb with the trough and more amplification than the 06z looking to see how far west the northerly can get day 7/8
  9. bluearmy
    no way the clusters at day 15 would lead you to think that 30 dayer was coming. I have seen this before on the extended and I suspect that either glosea is firming up on a SSW or they are happy to take the MJO into 7 and 8 as being strongly likely. perhaps both !!
  10. bluearmy
    Not necessarily - at some point the upper strat will likely imprint more consistently across the NH and a stonking great Canadian ridge could be good if it extends far enough east
  11. bluearmy
    The last two ecm ops have both extended the strat ridge at 10hpa further east across Canada rather than retorgressing further west. this is a divergence from gfs and gefs
  12. bluearmy
    paddy power is already paying out ...........
  13. bluearmy
    The post day 10 eps clusters are prone to variance as resolution drops but that 15% area has been fairly consistent for a more amplified solution to Scandi for a few runs now. The trend is dropping heights to our west later week 2 and my view is whilst that will show a sou’wester mean flow for nw Europe, it’s a better place for the bulk of the jet to be headed than to our ne slowly, slowly at the moment but things can accelerate
  14. bluearmy
    don’t think aloud Stewart ........ too many people are listening !! the split vortex and cross polar flow is just waiting to happen but the chances of it actually verifying (and at an axis which hits nw Europe with the cold) remains low. but at least we have a ticket to the January raffle !!
  15. bluearmy
    Eps cluster on undercut only 15% and takes an age to do it - almost there at day 15
  16. bluearmy
    The 06z looks more plausible given the eps spreads. The 00z was a bit over amplified at this stage of the modelling although things could still change in this regard
  17. bluearmy
    The eps clusters could be very revealing shortly the op not nearly amplified enough at day 9 through the uk and out ne Looking more closely at the spreads there looks to be a cluster which follows the gfs op at day 9 and the eps lose their resolution post day 10 so solutions less reliable after that. Again, expect to see a more amplified cluster percentage than yesterday’s the mean seems keen on a broad Atlantic trough as week two progresses with developing mean sceuro ridge anomoly Putting the two themes together and potentially an extended cluster showing the Atlantic undercutting a developing ridge to our northeast ??? Wonder what percentage that would be ??
  18. bluearmy
    Ecm mean and anomoly finally showing what part of gfs ops has been on the right page and not surprisingly it’s a bit more amplification around day 8 to our west that makes the trough to our east that bit sharper which helps make e Europe colder (spread also has that colder air making a glancing blow to e side uk) Also takes our ridge that bit further north
  19. bluearmy
    Ecm Day 9 at 30 hpa and then in the trop op and ens - perhaps you can see that the two are not the same upstream - not saying they don't share some features but the Canadian vortex is an anomolous pain as usual ...
  20. bluearmy
    That would be the op rather than the ens ???
  21. bluearmy
    I don’t i wish I did just operational
  22. bluearmy
    Whilst the ecm trop run looks poor for coldies, the upper strat is excellent - if only we could get a coupling and see that imprint further down Anyway, will be in Berlin in a few hours
  23. bluearmy
    there have been ecm spreads recently showing a cluster heading that way but they have gone now and the spread this morning was on lower heights to our wnw, not more amplified than the mean.
  24. bluearmy
    its to do with the sub seasonal rather than the ec 46 anyway. like you said - clickbait !
  25. bluearmy
    That’s a five day ban ..............,,, all eyes on the eastern seaboard day 7/8 ecm should be flatter than gfs unless ......
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