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bluearmy

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Everything posted by bluearmy

  1. bluearmy
    Evolving gefs theme (apart from returning the strat vortex closer to the pole ) is to the edge the highest height anomoly into the n Atlantic In tandem with the Alaskan high anomoly sticking around 30/50 hpa, I wonder if this provides for a strat split to ensue from Alaska across to Greenland in time with a residual chunk of vortex left over n America whilst the majority is still on th Asian side ????? The ecm to day 10 generally stays with continuity from yesterday’s 12z which is available on the Berlin site (upper vortex drifting towards n Scandi from n Siberia
  2. bluearmy
    Better get that blocking in before the zonal winds descend then !!
  3. bluearmy
    60% of the gefs at day 15 have high slp over scandi At day 15, eps have less 10% the extended eps look pretty stormy with heights and slp dropping across w Europe in general as the jet sinks the gefs might be a bit progressive with scandi height rise or the eps might be a bit slow. A meeting point between the two ? the op ecm seems to want to accelerate things somewhat but it does that from time to time, showing the broad way forward a little while before it comes to pass
  4. bluearmy
    really ? What on earth can happen at the end of December that will affect the whole of February?
  5. bluearmy
    So many clusters Phil - i take that as a sign of 'no confidence in the suite'
  6. bluearmy
    never ever going to get stressed out by a low res gfs ............ maybe one day (though by the time that model is worth analysing post day 8, global warming will have made cold chasing redundant !!
  7. bluearmy
    I think the revved up Atlantic is where the modelling has been headed for days now ??? Seems the idea is that the jet heads for Iberia (cold zonality sinking south and then heights building to the ne) but the 12z' suites seem to have backed off a bit later in week 2. Only one set of runs so best to wait for the 00z runs.
  8. bluearmy
    I guess it depends on their next glosea/mogreps run. Remember that the eps only go as far out as their further outlook and the 16-30 is the period beyond the eps. We don't see the ec 46 clusters so have no idea what the ens and anomolys are possibly hiding. I think too many fail to realise that the 16-30 is after the eps finish.
  9. bluearmy
    There might be but it's not at all noticeable on the mean /anomoly
  10. bluearmy
    Does that mean 11 (if so I don't believe that) or do you mean the majority cluster (which could be five?) little point in trying to take much from the current nwp - there is a lack of consistency apart from the fact it becomes more mobile and flatter for a time on our side of the NH
  11. bluearmy
    I’m judging based on its agreement with the x model ens guidance, not coldie potential
  12. bluearmy
    Looking at the NH profile later on, I would say this gfs op is for the bin after day 10
  13. bluearmy
    a zonal flow into Iberia will be just fine .......................
  14. bluearmy
    Looking through the ec clusters and the theme of the gfs 00z and 06z ops is not without reasonable support. I would certainly be looking at this general evolution becoming more evident as we head through week 2
  15. bluearmy
    The ec 46 clusters from yesterday’s run clearly did nothing to lessen their expectations for January
  16. bluearmy
    I can’t take 3 monthly means as worth anything re detail a single month is difficult enough to draw any conclusions from but 90 days!! we could have two weeks of wintry nirvana second half jan with that pattern shown on the tweet for the remainder of the period and we wouldn’t see it. We also wouldn’t see repeating wedges of heights which could lead to sliders on that chart - you can make a prediction that the three months is likely to return an above average temp profile but that’s about all ! I don’t see a euro high btw !
  17. bluearmy
    The amplification at day 7 is not a sustainable one The 06z op is not that far removed from the 00z in evolution with the jet headed for Iberia and building height rises to our ne over time bit of patience required as might not happen first bite at the cherry as singularity has referenced above
  18. bluearmy
    One thing which is consistent from gfs evolution is that the Atlantic and Pacific amplifications are ying and yang if the Pacific ridge into Alaska is less sharp then the Atlantic is more ridgy and vica versa Of course that could end up as a win win and perhaps the less amplified solution for us is a better scenario longer term .....
  19. bluearmy
    Still thinking that the general feel of that 00z op gfs isn’t far from where we should be expecting week 2 to be going the uber amplified gfs ops we have seen on occasion recently are surely almost implausible given the upstream pattern with that Canadian vortex pushing a bit closer to Greenland and aiming full square at nw Europe.
  20. bluearmy
    Excellent @Interitus - had a feeling you would make a good post explaining this. Previous gefs guidance was that the upper strat ridge would drift further west towards the aleutians but it seems this may not happen in week 2. Of course the ecm op could be wrong but at 10hpa it’s usually reliable and to be consistent makes it seem more likely to verify
  21. bluearmy
    The ecm ops are placing the upper strat ridge at 10hpa right above the trop Canadian vortex !! will it just drift back west or are we looking at something unexpected to happen lower down over time or will that disconnect continue ??
  22. bluearmy
    But it was only 15% still no evidence this morning that the nwp has a decent handle on week 2 the evolution of the gfs op is more saleable to me than previous blocked runs based on ens guidance but I still don't buy it ecm looks fairly consistent - the n Pacific ridge which late on is causing interesting things to occur near the pole
  23. bluearmy
    Undercutting the scandi high NWS, not an Atlantic ridge anyway, the ec 46 is building a scandi surface ridge in Jan but it's a slow process!!
  24. bluearmy
    Eps cluster scandi high drops to 14% but it's a bloody good looking undercutting cluster !!!!
  25. bluearmy
    Day 8 on the 18z bang in line with the eps mean - (which was well supported in the spread) so what follows to day 10 might be a decent call.
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