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bluearmy

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Everything posted by bluearmy

  1. bluearmy
    Shows 1cm widely across the region (apart from London heat island )
  2. bluearmy
    06z euro 4 tends the snow cover further north to be similar to the ecm op. several days on we are still talking s Wales to the wash as the core line from the area north of the low and occlusion and any subsequent cover from the wrap around is less secure. Elevation over 100/150m looks to play a part aswell within the risk zone. https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=201712260600&VAR=weas&HH=33&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=
  3. bluearmy
    that optimistic I think. as SK posts, the onight runs have edged the low n a bit but it's the swing ne which is the issue imo. Less swing is better for us ? A meso low also forms Kent on the ecm which helps pull the wrap around further south. as I posted a few times on thread, I don't like wrap arounds re snowfall as I find them unreliable. As the Beeb forecast shows, precip is petering out as it heads east - it's obviously a nowcast when you get up in the morning but the w Midlands again look to be the sweetspot.
  4. bluearmy
    The people who aren't in the risk area don't like it John! perceived wisdom is that it goes in the regionals although I'm not going to post in three different reg threads to indicate current thinking on it looks consistent with previous thinking - initial occlusion runs s Wales to wash and then the wrap around delivers across a swathe of England but I'm not a great fan of wrap around as experience tells me that they aren't so reliable
  5. bluearmy
    looking like through week 2 systems will disrupt se as they reach nw Europe, sending part of the trough towards Italy/balkans. This disruption could take place just west of the uk (we stay on the cold side of the disruption) or just east (we alternate between warm sectors and lee nowesters). it does seem like another cold shot is likely days 9/12 and gem shows a way whereby any milder interludes are forshortened in the near to mid term. steve's comment re zonal strat flow is correct as per the 00z gefs suite but yesterday's 00z run was much more positive re deceleration so I'm not sure how consistent the gefs is on this. The idea that high slp may establish to our ne by day 15 remains below 10% on the eps and isn't much higher on the gefs suites (apart from transitory ridging)
  6. bluearmy
    one of the three clusters in the extended is a nw/se jet into Europe with a mean Atlantic ridge. in fact two of the three clusters are non euro high heights (as opposed to the story of the ec 46 which is Icelandic trough and euro ridge)
  7. bluearmy
    At the moment, most of the snow predicted by the models away from wales and the Midlands is to do with the wrap around behind the low - that’s surely a more tricky feature to predict ?? ecm is a little later now on the swing ne
  8. bluearmy
    Oh I see what you mean - I think xmas day is different !
  9. bluearmy
    How bad? seems likely that some of the same areas (Hereford and Worcester way) that got plastered a fortnight ago will do so again. that's twice as many snow events as we have seen for years south of the Pennines! yes, marginal snowfall in many places but some areas will get a good 4/6" again. Not to be sniffed at!
  10. bluearmy
    Icon, gem and gfs no notable variance from previous runs. If anything a nudge south but nothing worth comment and no indication that much is likely to change from here. As Exeter mentions, local affects (inc precip intensity) will be relevant
  11. bluearmy
    I used the word 'decent' for a good reason. Feb! Last time was clearly a different situation with the ridging ahead of the low more tricky to model. the high res output did a decent job in retrospect.
  12. bluearmy
    To be fair, few decent models have shown it getting as far north as you guys
  13. bluearmy
    The track of this system is pretty much agreed upon now cross model - variances are no more than 20 miles. The 12z runs will conform if there is any inkling that the shape may change which could affect the swing ne, and therefore the snow risk area - this doesn't look to have the uncertainty of the last slider. Swingers are clearly more predictable!
  14. bluearmy
    The eps probability is growing higher slp to our east/south by end week two but not getting it far enough north. The clusters are pretty diverse and plentiful. looks to be just a case of watching and waiting to see what becomes the favoured direction of travel into the new year.
  15. bluearmy
    Felicitations ........ apart from the track of the runner tues/wed (which seems to remain snow line s Wales running up to the wash with a thirty mile spread either side ) , my eyes are taken in the extended period by the amplification to our north/northeast on the gefs (that is getting stronger if anything) and the eps where a mean pattern which doesn't look łike it should be cool returns uppers a little below average. I assume the clusters will shortly reveal why
  16. bluearmy
    Looking at the high res chart shows entry Severn estuary and exit the wash so I don't see any southern adjustment. Imo, the current trend to a more pendulum movement is less good for snow coverage. A more sliding movement against the ridge is required
  17. bluearmy
    Why so? less than five runs out of the fifty. The gefs have been showing up to thirty percent scandi highs from time to time past fortnight by day 16.
  18. bluearmy
    Less than 10% chance of either
  19. bluearmy
    Not to take too much from one run which leans a little differently but given that the op and ens runs are becoming more amplfied within 8 days, I imagine seeing the more extended period showing some atlantic ridges and euro troughs
  20. bluearmy
    Eps are more midlands (as before) and the control is, if anything, a tad further north than the op
  21. bluearmy
    Gfs strat is stretching the vortex late on and gefs shows a lobe at both ends
  22. bluearmy
    Ecm was pretty good below T72 last time and was always correcting marginally south - this time it has gradually accented this swing ne (which other models have also been showing) of more note are the uppers across the eastern side of the states at day 7 showing up to 25c below normal !!!!!!!
  23. bluearmy
    Ecm consistent with entry into sw england but then swings ne earlier than previous runs and exits Suffolk/Norfolk - snow band mainly Cardiff up to Leicester - work 30 miles either side of that line. Naturally until this swing ne is sorted pinning down the snow risk area remains tough.
  24. bluearmy
    Where Dennis ?
  25. bluearmy
    The problem with gfs is that on the last slider,it never really got the track right until it arrived! So waiting until the Xmas 12z runs for x model agreement may still prove fruitless. With most of the models on the south England track I'll stick with that and if anything, expect a little adjustment south more than north. As I said earlier, some elongation of the trough would assist with snowfall amounts and area covered.
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