bluearmy

Strangely, the fact that the ec op goes out of spread with its 00z mean output as early as day 6 says that there is plenty of wriggle room on this evolution It wouldn’t be a surprise to see some support from the eps later but there is currently little credence to this solution

@mucka - pet hate of mine is over analysis and reliance on op runs post day 6/7. If we check what the eps mean was showing tues 12z we get this that looks like being close, especially if we compare with today’s gefs 06z mean for the same time the moral of of the story is to look at ens means post day 6/7 rather than gfs and ec ops. We don’t have all the clusters on all the models to assess like Exeter can. Rmemeber, what is evolving next week would be a pretty wintry scenario at the surface if the uppers had played ball. Nothing deeply cold required - just sub zero would have helped ! EDIT: and there is one thing worse than relying on ops post T168 and thats illustrating ens members as being of any significance!! I think they should only be used to illustrate things like the possibility of amplified patterns or split vortices or deep depressions - no detail at all as they are unlikely to be in the right locale with their broad upper pattern.

Unless we can find a way of advecting some lower uppers to our se by middle next week we are peeing in the wind hoping for a snowy breakdown late next week. best we could hope for is the Scandi ridge being rebuilt by further WAA and better CAA via lower euro heights than we see next week - that would be next weekend

The output of the ops days 6/7 today look very much like the mean has last few days nick .... I have said this before but sometimes the solution ends up being a blend of the clusters - the mean !!

Drifting towards a pretty wintry blended solution - if it weren’t for the lack of cold uppers early/middle next week !!! Funnily enough in December when the Scandi ridge was being touted by the telecons (before the xmas MJO drop) - we were warned that a lack of cold pooling to our east might be an issue. And before some of you tell me that the pattern is too far to the east to be wintry, even with embedded cold - if we had a cold block in place then the Atlantic would be a couple hundred miles west of where it shows this morning and the trough would be forced more se. imo , it’s the lack of low uppers that causes the problem in not seeing a wintry conclusion to the upcoming pattern next week.

Looking at the gfs day 8 and thinking about the eps mean anomoly countdown charts I put up earlier, the gfs isn't so far away in broad terms but it's so messy. the eps is made up of 50 runs at pretty well the same resolution as the gfs. no question that at day 8 the eps mean should be a better guide than gfs op. it won't take much for gfs to get to the other output and similarly, a.middle ground solution closer to the euros/gem should be fairly reachable. I'm not of the opinion (as Aaron) that a blend is bound to be a poor result. Some of the consistent models have to fidget a bit tomorrow - surely!

Whilst the 18z goes off on a road to somewhere, have a look at the eps from days 10 to 8 and see how the scandi ridge has firmed up into something not far short of an omega block whilst the centre of th block has backed west from the Baltic states to central scandi. It should be noted that the flow across the top is a tad flatter by day 8 rather than becoming more amplified. Also a little more jet has gone over the top which could well assist in recurving cold uppers back west underneath. The upper trough undercutting from the Atlantic has sharpened up and backed west a bit, uppers/anomalies and mean jet.

Which gfs ? Yesterday ? Tuesdays? The 12z ? The 00z ? If you chuck out a slightly different run every six hours then at some point it’s going to look close !! Alternatively, if you drift little by little towards the middle ground which turns out to be close then you fool plenty into thinking thhats what you’ve been showing all along !

What’s the sliding high @West is Best? observation 1: days 7 to 9 we now see a low upper anomoly extend from Russia west to the uk. Up until this mornings run, the area to our east was solidly anomalously high uppers. Observation 2: the probability mslp show the high centre solidly Scandinavia days 7/8 and slipping slowly se to become n Ukraine day 10. Observation 3: the extended eps are going to be higher clustering more mobile less undercut again. observation 4: at day 10 the eps mean 850hpa wind is split far more ne than se. Observation 5: not for the first time recently, the control develops a deep cold long fetch easterly

It could be the other way around tonight ! Thinking out aloud, I wonder if we will see this attempt at breaking the block down actually build a new one with the original exiting stage southeast or if the Atlantic does actually come through (the day 10 chart whilst it would never look like that) we could easily see the Atlantic trough dive and slide like early December did. We are a long way from knowing the detail on this - what is clear is that the eps seem to have got the uppers right in the pre day 6/7 period. They have never been keen on deep cold and neither have the spreads. We should be looking to see how the pattern is firming up on the eps, days 6 to 8. Comparison of two days ago with today - I will have a look later.

Oh right - I mean the mo. And ‘reading how you want to’ isn’t a criticism of you or anyone. It’s just how it is. We can all interpret stuff in different ways.

It’s only the icon but I hope the ukmo and ecm dont follow it too closely at day 5 ........

It’s been very consistent for a while now clusters have been changing their probability drift undercut/mobile though (as would be expected)

I have looked though the eps clusters now and apart from the uncertainty re the manifestation of the easterly and its duration, the extended looks much more mobile leaning (re cluster percentages) than previous output. Have to wait and see what the 12z thinks about that

It’s the Canadian ens mean anomolies for T192

Or we could end up with a form of ecm/gem where the ridge isn’t as amplified north and sinks very gradually once the WAA pulses subside as the Atlantic pushes more ne and less se anything that doesn’t deliver a wintry nirvana will be labelled a GFS victory. It would be nothing of the sort. We have been banging on for days now that none of the op models will be right more than 6/7 days out. The gfs/gefs are moving closer to the other output - slowly but surely. But the other output will move a little towards a less cold solution - certainly the ops will. i always feel that the day 8 ens mean are a good fit for direction of travel - especially if eps and gefs are anomoly agreed. Could this be one of those occasions where the ens play catch up to the post day 7/8 ops, day by day? Coldies would certainly hope so !

The London T2’s aren’t spectacular considering we are looking at a broadly continental flow. Certainly clusters looking pretty parky but nothing sustained on the majority - I wasn’t particularly taken by the suite from a wintry POV actually Cold - yes but how cold and for how long .....

They don’t mention the jet at all ? im talking about the forecast to jan 16th you can read it how you want to (as is usually the case). Doesn’t indicate the milder conditions will make it across to the eastern side by mid month.

Their further outlook has been wintry for a couple days at least already ???

Tbf, it’s way too early to make this judgment, especially as the Icelandic clusters don’t even show all of Scandinavia, never mind w Russia. Noting a trend from the latest eps to drive less Euro troughing (which would mean less CAA ) but with so many clusters it’s still a case of watching and waiting although the broad pattern is settling down nicely with the ec op still leading the way along with the GEM. Still think we haven’t yet seen an op throw out the correct evolution days 5 to 8.

Did you ever see/read jack and the beanstalk ineritus ?

Yes Dennis - I posted it above 11 hours ago ?

Whilst zonal flow is strong high up, it isn't getting down and you can see even gfs predicts an anomolous weak flow in the trop

Whilst that heights chart is quite low at 150hpa, the morning run again shows a ridge right up to 30hpa. Bit more marked than the Berlin run from yesterday's 12z