bluearmy
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Everything posted by bluearmy
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Gefs offer 25% support for high heights over Scandi by day 10. Suspect the eps clusters will be around 20%. Thats enough for a starting point and not dismissable, especially given the extended trend.
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Eps mean/spreads offer little support for the op (the control does with similar evolution and a beasterly post day 10) the eps mean does support a Scandi ridge in the extended period (as we saw on the clusters ) - is the op being progressive ??
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but day 8 is a bit soon although ukmo at day 5/6 looked like it could easily head in that direction and the ec op is hardly a mouth wide open shock after the past couple days gefs if ec is sniffing the way forward then the usual adjustment sw on the weekend low would be a decent snow event for much of the uk.
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when I mooted the possible negative tilt after the 00z suites, I wasn't expecting the ops to jump quite so quickly. the Siberian block is growing, slowly but surely ..... looking at the general rise in pressure to our east before the op fires the atlantic up in lala land.
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slightly more disruption on the front at day 5. slightly more blocking to the northeast. result at day 6 ???? EDIT: not far from gfs solution is the answer (with some snowfall on the front)
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ecm in over the IOM and out just north of the humber nothing overly ridiculous on wind gusts away from exposed western coasts, (Ireland and wales)
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I do
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The envelope on the storm appears to be lancs/Yorks if it stays an open wave (let’s say notts/Derbys at the extreme) or central Scotland if it deepens and really engages with the jet. Where the talk of it being further south than the n midlands comes from is just strange. No models have shown this, wave or not. This isn’t a slider.
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Oh, and ukmo more amplified at day 4 which probably means ec right to keep the ridging over past 3 runs
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The icon goes on to dive the trough somewhat early next week - wouldn’t take too much adjustment on that evolution to look like 10/11 December ........
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Was just about to reference these MWB - certainly a nice surprise given the mean.
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The 06z GEFS again show the weekend and into the early part of next week as being far from pinned down.
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Not a surprise given the gefs yesterday - we should get an idea by tomorrow’s 12z ecm if there is any chance that the ridge ahead of the trough can force it to negatively tilt
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The extended eps broadlly agree
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my post following the 06z gefs applies again after the 12z - if not moreso with the potential transition at day 6/7 looking uncertain. whilst the 00z runs were rather a flat surprise (ecm apart), the subsequent output has put my tax return in danger .........
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looking at the gefs T144/T168 and the ukmo/gem at day 6, don’t assume the trough will just push through without incident
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The late Feb charts for the Atlantic didn’t show anything so assuming that did verify, the lag would bring cold in March - no thanks for down here - would prefer a nice spring for a change rather than slush and chill.
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Without illustrating specific gefs members (which isn’t advisable as it skews your expectations noting the cold members and ignoring the non cold ones), the suite does illustrate that amplification is more than feasible in week 2 and could lead absolutely anywhere
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I see the pig is back again and this time with a full revlon contract! Actually, it’s not quite that bad and plenty of places up north (especially with elevation ) will be posting their snow photos at various times this week. Ecm (inc eps) retain the ridge following though that looks a bit meh compared to the direction of travel Friday evening. Ec op dropping that mid Atlantic trough late on is eps supported though how far west this occurs is open to debate. The spreads here support the op so I’m not seeing anything of interest yet for coldies - this evolution will drive warmer air back across Europe so if we do progress those lower heights to our south, we get another tepid easterly flow! Not inclined to think that there is an elephant in the room is as some are. the strong zonal strat flow subsiding very soon and likely to stay that way next couple weeks so the trop can do what it wants to without any influence. No sign that any reversal is coming which could change things further down. The trop pv looks pretty done for on the day 10 ec op this morning though that doesn’t necessarily mean anything for our little part of the NH. Now where is that tax return ..............
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Note that the eps are very undercutty day 9/11 on the Atlantic following the ridge. They lose their way thereafter in general but that’s well into their low res.
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Day 4/5 faxes seem to show the track being south of the ecm - but not by much o strangely, the N24 just showed it’s track as per the Beeb website (as shown on previous page ) but this is way south of the latest FAX
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If it deepens less it will have a less northerly track. however, the open wave op options on show this morning are not really Southern based. Given the dynamics of the flow it is engaging with, I would be waiting for Monday before thinking too hard about where it goes and what it’s likely to verify as (open wave, slack depression or deep depression).
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north side of the Southern uplands. Draw a line East of Ayr, south of Glasgow
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At T240 on ec op, the min (midnight) showing is -16.2 C. The same run in twelve hours would show even lower for 6am
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Does the gfs pick up the trend first because it comes out first? On that basis, we will be paying homage to the icon more often than not!
