bluearmy

The extended ens in general heading towards the ec46 from the past few runs - for perspective, meto further just issued is less battleground than earlier and more mobile sw/ne

dissed the 06z earlier but note in week 2 it heads towards ventrice's analogue (though way too early !) on the fence karlos because we are between two big features

You sort of are karlos ?) - I can only see evidence of snowfall on the tops of the hills from the regionals (and TM's fell yesterday!) anyway, the 06z looks under amplified over scandi so perhaps not the best guidance

this uppers spread from ecm is a great illustration this morning of how things are currently evolving the darker the colour the less the diffence from the mean. Generally the dark areas are representitive of where troughs and fronts or blocks will be (our blocking to the east will struggle to show because of the variation in uppers within it across runs - the azores ridge much easier to see) watch how the first attempt to get east of the meridian succeeds and subsequent ones make less progress each time - with the smaller spreads heading both ne and se against the blocking. You can picture the broad frontal set up moving west to east and then stalling. How cold the air would be and what that would mean at the surface remains unknown but this gives you a broad picture of where we sit this morning.

with so many (quite varied considering the timescale) clusters evident on yesterday's eps pretty early on, it's not surprising to see changes evident in the ops most significant thing in have seen this morning is the updated T84 FAX placing a high centre 1032 mb at the western point of Norway (wasn't there yesterdays 12z T96). This shows the ridge is proving more resilient and the eps mean this morning continue to show an upper pattern continuing to sharpen and get further north as more runs come on board with the feature, run by run. surface pressure distribution around this upper pattern is bound to vary somewhat, run to run, ens member to ens member, model to model. we cannot know how the blocking will play out but the pulse of the Atlantic aligned to the emergence of a sig chunk of vortex from west of Greenland post day 7 is the big question. At the moment it shows to 'disrupt'/slide se against the blocking, generally across nw Europe. there is along way to travel on this - a sou'wester by the end of the 8/12 day period is still feasible (though the most unlikely) but also a screaming cold sou'easter bringing a countrywide blizzard. (Also unlikely I might add). A wide envelope indeed!

I hope that's not to do with the last two fi gfs runs ...... back to the 18z and assume that the blocking will be a bit stronger than showing ....... as I said earlier, could still be interesting in the longer term

Would be surprised if so far into the run that the Atlantic didn't - if meteociel wakes up we might see.

There are no low uppers around - that isn't going to change early next week. Later next week it's possible that a weakfish flow could see lower cold pools developing than currently shown but that's likely to be very hit and miss. the lack of consistency away from the high heights over scandi and strengthening Atlantic is fairly fascinating

Sub zero uppers with continental drift is fine by me ........... shame we don't see that earlier next week!

The 18z not uninteresting in the mid term

Just looking back at the past two days eps mean heights comparing day 14 to 12 all the way down to 8 and 6 - looking at the scandi ridge and it is more defined, sharper and further north all the way down. Day 14 which hardly had any ridge now shows one etc etc Basically, writing off this upper ridge could be a mistake and given that we know the Atlantic is going to come barrelling in, we could see some very interesting week two charts over the next week.

I’m pretty sure that mogreps was indicating an e/ese flow for monday lasy time I checked this was definitely happening- I commented at the time that we had no idea how sustained that signal was trying to work out which part of the 8/10 day op output is giving us a steer is proving very tough !

Not close yet (and certainly not close at 16 days out!) tbh, I’m of the opinion that an SSW end jan is far more likely to bring a cold miserable spring than it is to bring proper winter in Feb ..... but then I’m a miserable old git !

With the polar field solution looking like it may also influence the evolution, this is getting even more complicated!

Possibly with elevation but I think much more likely second time around so that any se surface feed ahead of frontal incursion is from upper air below zero

We need a bit of clarity here - the models show a bit of a stand off, but the upper air temps to begin with are way high. So that could mean surface cold but it won’t mean any snowfall once fronts try and make progress from the west if they do, then ironically they bring some colder upper air with them than the continental flow which could then make the situation more conducive to some snowfall if the block fights back and further attempts from the west/southwest ensue. We also have ec being quite progressive once the Atlantic makes headway east of the meridian although there remains the lesser chance that the second wave of the Atlantic could head more se than the first

Nope

TEN DAYS OUT KEV !!! at the risk of repeating myself ................ the ecm ens mean remains the best tool in this type of circumstance as its neither over progressive or under progressive. A check on the spreads against this mean would have consistently told you that the Atlantic was going over the blocking. It would also have told you that the uppers were not going to be low enough to bring convectively snowfall from any easterly flow. Before the Icelandic clusters were available, I would have posted the above days ago. Yet they didn't point in this direction. I'm going back to tried and tested methods now !!!!

There are loads of eps clusters throughout - I think that means the model is struggling to pin down where it should be headed. It could be that a drift towards climatology should be expected in such a situation.

Huge upgrade? Well it's interesting to see the gfs swing back a bit but it could go back to where the 12z was on the 00z. Worth seeing how many scandi highs are showing on the ens re trends. Are we going to lose the connection of the scandi surface high from the se European high? the ec 46 is nowhere near showing any sign of winter so would be nice to see a block delvelop somewhere which will aid the cold establishing and hanging around

I can only assume that the strat ridge is the trop imprint from day 4/5 working its way up. Seems to be a two/three day delay to get to 30 hpa which is still pretty quick!

The ens trend on uppers is down on the back of pm incursions - it's not blocked! The pig is covered in lipstick at the moment ...............

Jma offers support for the extension of low heights towards Denmark at day 6 ............

The picture at day 7 reminds me of the mess that the 18z gfs got into yesterday i cant make much sense out of this run although it can be seen to be a broad follow on from the 00z but in a pretty progressive fashion @feb1991blizzard - one thing the model hasn’t done is promise decent snowfall on its output - the uppers have barely shown low enough to interact with the North Sea, even on its more easterly runs

Ireland and n Pennines plus w Scotland but I wouldn’t take it too seriously for the time being