bluearmy
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Everything posted by bluearmy
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just checking out the 48 hour trend on the eps days 10 to 8 shows the scandi trough sharpening and edging west whilst the mid atlantic ridge, not surprisingly also sharpens. There may be a littlest further to go on this yet and the upstream pattern that follows Is firming up - coldies require more ridging/wedging around griceland , and the next system to slide. A broad repeat of Dec 11 weekend
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It's not a slider ?? its a runner ........... and surely the models won't have its track right at T130
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Definitely not - I think it's just assumed
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Not seen the eps extended struggle as badly as they currently are for consistency for quite a long time
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On meteociel gfs top right - ISO 0c charts Those are dam heights at 500hpa. there is an equation to work out the surface thickness using slp and 0.87 as a multiplier Ecm gets down to 520 dam at the surface by day 8 which is very low with slp around 980mb
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Ec brings the runner in just south of Ireland and exits off the Sussex coast it’s quite a tight feature and doesn’t produce a large amount of snowfall - s welsh hills and South Downs most this will not be the actual track though
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Not with a Greenland high although that graph doesn’t necessarily sing a greeny ridge to me - would require a much larger neg return on the NAO
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Agreed the euro ridge will be overdone in the extended ens modelling if he is right
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I don’t mean near the coast - I mean areas which have no upland between them and the coast if I posted the posts saying how snowy next week is going to be I would use the next 2 pages up! streamers (as nick mentioned) can’t be discounted but they will be localised
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At the risk of being lambasted for not seeing a wintry nirvana next week (runners aside which has always been the caveat), I’m still struggling to see where sustained snow cover is likely away from elevation with an onshore flow.
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‘One swallow doth not a winter make’ - however, we are looking for some direction from the end modelling post day 10
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‘One swallow doth not a winter make’ - however, we are looking for some direction from the end modelling post day 10
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As far as sustaining a cold spell post day 10 is concerned, how does the next system in the Atlantic interact with the upstream ridge and downstream trough. To me, that’s the big question as it offers countrywide snow event potential and, if we can get an upper ridge or wedge to stick around Iceland .............
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If we get to here then no need to bother much with uppers, given the slack flow and low thicknesses And just as i dont place any store in the op over an ens member post day 10/11 when it shows mild, neither do I when it shows cold.
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if only for purpose of consistency of reporting, the Ec46 looks quite blocky over the Atlantic weeks 3 to 6. Nothing overly strong but much more than previous output perhaps indicative of the model sniffing a new route forward??
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500hpa Heights ! Maybe I should have said dam to make myself clear The evolution out of the sinking trough stays unclear days 9/12
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That op ec looks of great interest to be Scots by day 8 with very low thickness at 500hpa and not insignificantly low at the surface - and more notably, a fairly slack flow under the trough ........ cold!!
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surface dam and 500 hpa dam diffs are less relevant under low 500 hpa thickness but this is moreso with a slack flow ( I think). anyway, all will become clearer next week but i'm still not convinced (unless we get a runner which could make things rather more interesting lower down along a narrowish band)
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I bet beefy’s assessment ends up closer come verification .....
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Day three is even worse
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THAT CHART IS TODAY’S PEOPLE !! Surely we are the unluckiest country in the world for wintry conditions !!
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If only we could get an anomoly chart like this in January .....
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Still waiting for consistency on this warming on gfs ops. it’s there every run but it is varying still. Once the modelling gets to day 10 on it we should have a handle on how it will play out at 10hpa and above
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I don’t think the nwp really knows what’s even nearly happening post day 10. Have felt this way for a few runs now.
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Eps clusters show this gfs evolution is more likely than the op by day 10 are we looking at a slider to follow the ridge ? (and I don't mean on gfs low res)
