bluearmy
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Everything posted by bluearmy
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Spv looks more likely to displace to Scandi/Greenland than Baffin - where that leaves the tpv.........
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Eps this evening are certainly raising height anomolys in general to our west/south/north as we approach day 10 compared to recent output a lack of direction for the extended period and the gefs showed that just about any solution is feasible for the latter part of week 2
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Big difference from the 00z run is the re appearance (in line with other modelling) of the polar high that forces the trough further south than the previous run and shows the Canadian vortex looking decidedly precarious by day 8.
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No sign of ec being less progressive - I think it’s the furthest north and east with the depression at day 5
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Last jan it snowed in alicante anyway - back to the pigs and lipstick thread ........
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We’ll be fine when we get a decent easterly then .......... if only we could drain the North Sea ...... so it’s not apples and apples is it ?? Exactly how unusual is snow in s Spain away from hills ?? and I thought they had received some snow on the coast. If not, then the whole bloody post is redundant !
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Quite an interesting chart at T222 as the 18z was last night at T252. there is hope if we could get a gfs op to be anything like the day 10 output at day 3 !
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The Sahara where it snowed is, I’m guessing pretty high up. The south of Spain with a continental flow could be anywhere on the continent. - it snowed in bloody Florida last week !! We are a small island at the eastern end of a huge ocean - end of.
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I always wait for next ec suite before jumping on a change - the eps often follow the op trend, only to switch back later
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It could be a strongish displaced vortex rather than a split one which some are seeing .......,,
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The initial WAA which drove the ridge was from a piece of vortex spat se which dug into the Atlantic and found a ridge already carved ahead of it. Subsequently, we see attacks which are not assisted by vortex chunks and also an Azores ridge thrown up to help the block strengthen. Early next week we see an attack from another piece of discarded vortex but this is stronger than before and there is no ridging ahead of it. it doesn't matter that the block is showing a big stronger in this run or that run. Unless we see a marked change in the pattern ahead of this vortex pulse next week, the block will not hold. Nor does it seem it can deflect it far enough se to keep us on the cold side of the trough. I am confident that no pattern change is going to appear. It's a shame because ironically, we do see some cold pools dropping into the flow around the block and if the next pulse of attack was just 36 hours later I suspect we would see quite a different evolution for nw Europe. Hey ho ....
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after a couple of days of some ''false promises' (though realistically there have been few of these), we are left with the lipstick covered pig again. Of course the north of the uk, especially with elevation are still in with a shot of snowfall from this cold zonal flow and there is a chance of a runner across the middle of the country next week. (The Welsh hills are also in the cold zonal snow camp though that runner won't help as it's currently too far north) little sign on the extended ens that something is brewing - there is amplification on gefs members but nothing that stands out as a theme. on the plus side, I should be able to find the time to get my tax return filed!
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Ecm now showing quite a displaced upper vortex again by day ten - nw scandi. There is a split before this but the wave one then takes over and it's a 'big wave'. The zonal flow retreating back towards where it was (latitude) prior to the big uptick and dropping back to levels where it won't influence the trop. Associated warming also showing on the temp graph. The latest 00z run seems as displaced.
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If the new ec op is sniffing a new evolution in removal of the polar high, we are heading north, not south with no mid Atlantic amp to draw the Azores ridge west, it will push its influence east into Europe somewhat = no euro troughing and general cool zonality for us maintained but with more wnw tha nnw and more big warm sectors. Not the direction of travel most envisaged. Anyway, many will hope that its just jumped to another cluster, temporarily.
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Gfs op low res drops the ball
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Never verify but that's a boom set up by day 10.5
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Ecm has been consistent in having a low spread on the lw trough through n Scotland and extending se into Europe - in line with the ens mean
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if you can turn that jet around as quickly as you charged your battery, we still have a chance!
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the models are likely right (just delayed a day or two as is usual with a block). the chunk of vortex cleared se out of canada is too strong for our Scandinavian friend. embedded cold may have assisted us further but it doesn't exist so we look to see the next amplification and what it may bring. the legacy of the scandi blocking will assist in that regard.
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well it currently runs to 16 days anyway but past day 10 its toss a coin time even moreso than before. at least having 16 days as high res will mean it should be able to offer a more balanced view of energy distribution days 11-16 if its in the same ball park as ecm at day 10.
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But unless the starting data issue is going to be improved the old adage of GIGO applies
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Think that’s from the 06z gfs run
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The strength of the jet headed se with that significant chunk of vortex should be enough to overcome the block - but not to the point where it can just head east. So it curves se and this is where the questions arise. There are no hard and fast answers - which is why some posters use their experience of previous instances to make an informed assessment of what may happen. I’m not a big fan of ignoring what the models are showing (especially with cross model ens agreement ) so loathe to think that something quite different to what’s showing may verify. Whilst plenty of coldies think cold zonality off the Atlantic would be a good result for n Britain, I don’t subscribe to that and believe that getting the trough west and south of the uk is always the best result, moving forwards.
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Unless we see systems running into the base of the trough or the trough itself parks over the top of the uk with slack flow then I tend to agree with them - of course cold zonality can deliver lowland snowfall but it’s not too common an occurance. anywhere above 600 feet midlands north should feel like they’re in with a shot but nothing more than that at present - obviously higher than 800 feet is quite different
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Whilst many would be hoping that the models would trend the trough sw next week, there is no doubt that the favoured position (and reasonably consistent now) for the axis is just east of us. I suspect any further holding back of the Atlantic by the blocking could affect that which is where the fascination with the block comes from. @CreweCold - Aaron, do you have any photos from that hot tub experience ..... time to let go mate !
