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bluearmy

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Everything posted by bluearmy

  1. bluearmy
    The eps again drop a low anomoly into Europe through week 2. The ridge following on - that must mean a chance of an easterly flow at some point as the euro low would stop the high sinking. The control follows this route - perhaps we will see a gfs op do so at some point over the next day or so.
  2. bluearmy
    That ec runner showing again - a foot of snow across the midlands ! Up and down like a tarts draws but consistently showing
  3. bluearmy
    @Snowy Hibbo - bastardi had a more than decent stab at the Dec/jan eastern USA bitter cold ahead of the winter. he may indeed be wrong to see the MJO getting into 8 given Nina base state but a broad repeat of the overall hemispheric pattern can’t be ruled out. I would like to see some proper cold established over mainland Europe in case we see repeating pattern downstream.
  4. bluearmy
    Didn’t we see this upcoming pattern in December in the upper strat ?
  5. bluearmy
    Can we just clarify that the ecm op has been saying it would snow on today’s front for at least the past 5 days now. We don’t see what ukmo says at the surface and gfs ..... what’s the point re any detail. the high res modelling has also picked up the snowfall once it’s come within its remit. The ecm op does produce a runner at day 9/10 across n england/n Ireland. The control does the same. Yesterday’s control showed this feature across the midlands. A long way out and likely not to exist come verification but now we’ve seen it on a run, let’s see how often it repeats over the next few days.
  6. bluearmy
    And Berlin chart shows some impressive wave 1 in week 2. The zonal flow looks pretty weak but no sign of a reversal. patterns in the trop are likely to continue to be led by events in the trop.
  7. bluearmy
    The development on the eps for troughing into Europe by day 10 and beyond is new. The clusters will tell us a bit more as to whether there are any more intriguing options possible end week 2 on that run
  8. bluearmy
    It’s the differential that promotes the strong jet so a warm esb and a cold Greenland area will still promote a strong jet upstream of us.
  9. bluearmy
    I found the 00z gefs quite intriguing- mind you they were doing that amplification thing a few days ago and it dropped away so await the eps to sniff the same thing - maybe the clusters will show some appetite on this.
  10. bluearmy
    ‘Snowy slider’? Unseemly? Surely not! anyway, will be interesting to see how far north ecm and the NNM are on this - a correction south a bit and maybe not just high ground !
  11. bluearmy
    Icon 12z seems to think we may be looking at a snowy slider tomorrow !!!!
  12. bluearmy
    Ec46 has scandi high anomoly week s three/four. no reason for it to be right of course
  13. bluearmy
    The potential for snow on Sunday isn’t nuts - the idea that the Atlantic doesn’t follow in behind beginning next week is !
  14. bluearmy
    It’s not borderline - it’s full on nuts! ???
  15. bluearmy
    Well their own website is normal speed, as is weatherbell so you seem to have received the ‘special’ datafeed Sylvain!
  16. bluearmy
    Strange considering ecmwf own website only at day 6. Does this mean that the chosen few European weather bureau’s usually get the ecm op and ens half an hour before us mere mortals ??? i can confirm that it does match ecm output at day 7 so it’s genuine
  17. bluearmy
    After watching this winter evolve and seeing the telecon predictions, the MJO fail in late December, the charts with potential fail to verify etc etc, I’ve decided that the upstream pv locale and consequential jet won’t allow sustained amplification to occur in a position to bring deep cold as far west as the uk via a Scandi ridge. if (and it’s feasible) the vortex drifts away from north eastern Canada, I think the most likely place for amplification will be the North Atlantic. I think the search for a Scandi ridge is destined to fail. the gfs op in it’s latter stages plays with a scenario which I think could well play out whereby we have a MLB close to the uk which retrogresses to meet an amplification off the ESB. This run ultimately fails but it’s an evolution that I believe more likely to occur with a MLB than a Scandi ridge.
  18. bluearmy
    Been trending blocked for quite a few days now. Where the blocking establishes remains uncertain but you can guess that the models wil put forward many options before it definitely ends up centred to our south!
  19. bluearmy
    It’s on ecmwf.int looks broadly the same evolution as the 00z run
  20. bluearmy
    You haven’t
  21. bluearmy
    It’s around 25% nick for the 25th but by the 27th an upper Scandi ridge is 50/50 according to the eps clusters. That’s a big swing from the 00z suite which never really developed a cut off upper ridge
  22. bluearmy
    That run sits ok in the eps - shame. The Russian high does edge west in the extended but we also have the gefs promoting amplification closer to home so week 2 presents a lot of questions.
  23. bluearmy
    The trough extension over the n Atlantic looks different on the ec 12z and won’t allow same ridge day 5/6 stand down the progressive easterly alert.
  24. bluearmy
    Please stop posting individual cold ens members ! Seriosuly, there is always a decent cold member on every run and you will just get folk excited ! better to post a picture of a yellow wall as that’s calming ..........
  25. bluearmy
    On the other hand ......
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