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bluearmy

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Everything posted by bluearmy

  1. bluearmy
    when the op T2 is consistently against the mean and clusters days 9/10 then invariably the eps play catch up. This mornings op run pretty well removes any concerns. the 00z gem day 10 looks like the eps spread from yesterday this balloon of heights thrown up will be played around with for a few runs I think and how the following pulse of the northern arm interacts with it is going to take a while to resolve.
  2. bluearmy
    The only concern on the cold snap end next week being that the op was the warmest run at day 10. Want to see that change on the 00z run.
  3. bluearmy
    this wedge of heights up to Svalbard, becoming cut off , during week 2 is not surprisingly, also a fairly well supported eps cluster
  4. bluearmy
    The op ec and gfs are both keen on a very neg epo by day 10 now that should drive another eastern USA trough which keeps the Atlantic jet strong - this is why I can’t currently see any Greenland or Icelandic blocking taking hold but the jet is certainly keener than recently modelled in the extended to drive se into Europe. For the first time on the extended eps there seems to be some interest in rising heights nw Russia/svaalbard and edging into ne Scandi
  5. bluearmy
    They do seem to sit on the fence a little less than they used to. Makes the flips more noticeable when they occur!
  6. bluearmy
    @Steve Murr checking the ecm op at T84 and your slider does actually slide across the midlands (rather than the control which went ne). Snow n Midlands and lancs/yorks. (Looks more elevation based than today as fridays slider takes much of the cold air away)
  7. bluearmy
    To me, the story of the eps in general is the return of the neg epo. Note the op at day 10 going into overdrive on that.
  8. bluearmy
    Sadly not steve - it lifts ne with the jet forcing behind - Friday's trough slides from sw Scotland to Norfolk so the north of England should see some snow. Saturday's trough should deliver to the Scottish contingent.
  9. bluearmy
    localised though Tim - ten miles down the road at similar altitude barely a dusting has stuck tough to make a forecast and I think Exeter referencing this difference likely was pretty accurate. Eps firming up on troughing into Europe by day 10 - awaiting extended
  10. bluearmy
    It's not the ice holding up the traffic - it's Chris Fawkes with his ruler !!!
  11. bluearmy
    Looking at the ec control (ec op is slow out), Friday could be interesting for yorks ............
  12. bluearmy
    Fridays occlusion looks like sliding se judging by the latest faxes - east of se England but likely affecting Yorkshire. Latest ecm run delayed - not helpful
  13. bluearmy
    Thnx - I thought it was all the missing data from Xmas that they had to incorporate .................
  14. bluearmy
    You're probably around 800 feet so nuff said - enjoy!
  15. bluearmy
    There is some impressive altitude around there - are you high up ?
  16. bluearmy
    the 00z ecm run hasnt got past day one yet knocks?
  17. bluearmy
    Well yesterday's ec run produced some pretty impressive wave 1 returns high up by the end and also some wave 2 appearing. The increased zonal flow won't last long if this verifies
  18. bluearmy
    It's the old German DWD model revamped. Often quite close to the ecm output but not as good. I think it verifies below ukmo and similar to gfs
  19. bluearmy
    Your definition of horrendous doesn't match mine ............
  20. bluearmy
    We don't usually pay much attention to the exact track of systems. Clearly this one and two week ago we have and both times gfs has corrected itself pretty much after the event! Ecm has been spot on with the point of entry from around T84 on both occasions.
  21. bluearmy
    These warnings at 10hpa are generally just surfing around the edge of the vortex. I don't see them achieving much. A huge wave 1 at the top of the strat would be far more interesting but I fear time is slowly ticking away now and a strengthening vortex early Jan isn't desirable unless its clearly just temporary (which isn't currently obvious)
  22. bluearmy
    brown would be so much more apt ................
  23. bluearmy
    Wave 1 at the top of the strat is predicted to go off the scale by gfs as we head through towards the end of week 2. The displacement shown is obviously a response to that. Whether that forecast makes it down to day 10 remains unclear.
  24. bluearmy
    Plenty of you peeps in the west mids also have altitude to help you tonight
  25. bluearmy
    Not sure how that’s ‘likely fact’ yet don ??? i would have thought MLB is just as likely and that could deliver cold periods
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