bluearmy

February 6

February 6

IDO maybe the best chance we have of a memorable end to this winter would be a strike from a meandering deeply cold pool ??? Even though the scandi route is likely to lead to what you say, a scandi ridge slowly transferring west would presumably give us a chance of something frigid caught in the flow ??

February 6

14 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes - SSW likely now.

Eps mean is now reversal displacement to scrussia on the 00z run. Gefs the same

Assume the 46 will now show a change to take way more members negative

tbh, could do without any splitting shenanigans and for the displaced vortex to stay over scandi - less risky

February 6

Mike Poole I’d chuck in cluster three aswell Mike (the control fwiw)

February 6

Ali1977 Fri fax is currently updating Ali ? You’ve posted yesterdays run for thurs as T84

February 6

8 hours ago, ICE COLD said:

e NH in , no matter what it just doesn’t fall are way . Just can’t see it happening now . Even the GEFS have gone the wrong way in FI and the ECM ens hardly look great. So that’s up to the 20th and then we’re obviously fighting an even more up hill struggle with it being so late . Maybe next year

I wouldn’t disagree with you

I’m also struggling to see strong evidence that the macro pattern will align itself to bring deep cold to our shores. Post mid feb we need quite specific alignment on the flows or v low 850’s for areas away from elevation to bring conditions that would satisfy the majority here.

the ens are pointing strongly towards height rise to nw in week 2 and an undercutting by the Atlantic lw trough. But you’d bet that the likely consequence of that will be a lift of some kind in euro heights which will certainly put the southern half U.K. in the less cold air fairly quickly. Of course that could well mean a decent number of people here are in the battle zone so I shouldn’t be imby about it. But given that we will then be into the last half of feb and the further north the battle zone is the longer the sea track of flow ahead of it, I’m not sure that’s so great away from higher ground either.

we are still looking at the nwp feeling it’s way to those height rises so we shouldn’t discount a route from left field that does bring the desired uppers but for now it’s a tough watch.

February 5

decimated tpv for the most part

can we get the pieces to land for us ???

February 5

feb1991blizzard don’t know yet

if anything today has stepped away on the ncep suites

but it probably won’t matter as the reversals above 70N will likely lead to -AO in March

February 5

So by day 12, all the ens suites have a decent greeny upper ridge but as I mentioned earlier today, the root of the ridge is rather close to Iberia which makes it difficult to get a cold flow in from the north. If we can get the jet to undercut the ridge then we need cold air in place to deliver battleground snowfall

February 5

tvh3382 the 12z models don’t go to the 20 feb ??

February 5

blizzard81 it’s a different transition to the expected pattern post mid month with height rises to the north (somewhere )

Of course it will disappoint given what some were expecting

but it’s just one run

February 5

blizzard81 that’s not a Barty though …wait for a bit later than the frame after before drawing a conclusion on the direction of travel

February 5

blizzard81 that’s expected blizzard. - question is whether it’s in association with a scandi surface high or part of a general rise in heights just to our west

February 5

BarnetBlizzard just been looking through the stamps

only 2 members manage to have a system which keeps 0z isotherm as far south as the M4 by late Thursday

Southern contingent fighting a losing battle on attempt one

there are more chances for the south later in the weekend

meanwhile, the midlanders with a little altitude (like the west mids) are dreaming

And those between Northumberland and the north midlands are scared to dream because of what may actually be on the table for them

fwiw, I reckon an altitude event in the main but probably not too much elevation required

February 5

sheikhy gfs was poor with the n france system last month ? They all have their wins and losses. I’d still say within 5 days that ec will be closer than gfs - most of the time!
the best AI models are sending the low ne so this may turn out to be gfs’ moment in the sun

February 5

Whilst the macro pattern post the transition remains the same, the ridging looks too far east to allow for the wintry conditions most on here are looking for. Currently a Low Countries system deepening and drifting a little west is the most likely option to deliver next week. But that’s currently a straw rather than a likely solution.

we are seeing continued west Atlantic troughing on the modelling - that won’t allow a standard mid Atlantic ridge to establish (of the type many envisaged). If things fall well then we could see an active southerly jet far enough south to make the south of the U.K. a battle zone. For now, that looks 50/50 on those runs which develop that theme with that zone further north as the option.

A quick downwelling wave from a possible split ssw would add more uncertainty re where the pieces of the puzzle end up for the last third of feb.

at least we are in the raffle and have plenty to watch - been like that for much of this winter though.

February 4

Fwiw, the control has a bfte post day 12

February 4

Tim Bland

actual snow cover by Sunday rather than every drop of sleet that’s fallen is less impressive tim

February 4

Lukesluckybunch Ukmo 96 is a big change indeed at just day 4

February 4

06z eps control is similar with Thursdays snowfall but thereafter the cold doesn’t head south as per the 00z run

I think for now the Thursday snowfall is what should be concentrated on

February 4

northwestsnow further north to begin with but a more disrupted system overall

one step towards ec I guess but needs to adjust the track which is dependant on a few factors

February 4

Anthony Burden that’s based on yesterday’s Ukmo 12z run Anthony. It could be that today’s 00z run is the same.

looking at posts this morning, there are two events to keep an eye on initially.

the first is Thursday and another follows at the weekend. If we aren’t specific then it’s going to get confusing in here!

of course there is a relation between the two because if the first low disrupts more and tracks further south then likely the second is similar.

February 4

IDO

todays 00z Yesterdays 00z

the three in between have shifted a little south each run

at some point this southerly shift will stop. The op is obvs the edge of the envelope and outside of 80% of the members. We reach the point beyond today where the ops should be more informative then the ens if they are consistent with their solution. Like you I think the ec op has gone too far south but it may be that a half way solution between the current mean and todays op is feasible

February 4

9 hours ago, bluearmy said:

ec op is almost in the same place as yesterdays 12z which is 50m further south than the 00z run. Still pretty much north of the M62. Haven’t seen any ec runs much south of the M62 for a number of days.

I said a notable correction south w

9 hours ago, CoventryWeather said:

Understandable, but what the ECM showed just shows that solution still not out the question. What, about 100miles further south from the morning run - big adjustments in a short time frame. Could be a trend or just a weird one off run..

Those in the midlands can thank me for that 00z ec suite

how often does a more definitive statement elicit a subsequent burn which turns that on its head?

I guess we’ll see over the next couple runs if this is the new southern edge of the envelope or if it’s just a dodgy eps suite.

February 3

CoventryWeather ec op is almost in the same place as yesterdays 12z which is 50m further south than the 00z run. Still pretty much north of the M62. Haven’t seen any ec runs much south of the M62 for a number of days.

I said a notable correction south which for me would be to get it as far as Birmingham. can’t see it.

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