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bluearmy

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Posts posted by bluearmy

    Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

     Harsh Climate I don’t think there will be much of a lag HC. The 12z gfs op is notable because it has a split spv segment over griceland with an upper trop ridge there.  There have been signs on recent ops that we could see a split with a left over Atlantic segment which isn’t ideal for us unless we have a strong block to our north (possible) 

    id expect the trop and strat to take on the same appearance within a few days of the reversal pattern.  Of course we are currently likely seeing downwelling waves from first half January warming and if we get a notable reversal in two weeks then expect march to stay blocked  much of the time 

     

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    Model discussion highlights

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    If gfs op dropped the fascination with snowfall from attempt one then we’d be a lot less excited in here. We should learn from experience that gfs op is not the model you want in your back pocket when it’s fairly isolated. 
     

    we can wait till Mondays 00z runs to draw the curtains on attempt one south of the M62 

    the cold flow to follow is uncertain re depth of cold and instability 

    then we look to hemispheric pattern changes and if we don’t get a sig cold spell with snowfall by the end of feb then we are truly unlucky 


    Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-22nd-jan-2024-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=5028606
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    Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    If gfs op dropped the fascination with snowfall from attempt one then we’d be a lot less excited in here. We should learn from experience that gfs op is not the model you want in your back pocket when it’s fairly isolated. 
     

    we can wait till Mondays 00z runs to draw the curtains on attempt one south of the M62 

    the cold flow to follow is uncertain re depth of cold and instability 

    then we look to hemispheric pattern changes and if we don’t get a sig cold spell with snowfall by the end of feb then we are truly unlucky 

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    Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    @bluearmy

    what stock do you place in the GEM ens? ( i know going back a good few years you used to post the NAEFS), I've never really used them until recently, I suspect you know why i'm asking but for those that don't -

    image.thumb.png.95b13f54071ab41f0c00d05b6350b0f2.png

     

    Good question 

    with only 20 members, the mean tends to be more definitive. But if it has the correct solution this means thee are likely less incorrect members to dilute the mean as often happens with the eps.   In general, if the geps mean isn’t interested in a solution then I tend to wait for it to catch up before having any confidence. 

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    Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

     Pembroke Dangler don’t see this system in that way atm - January was an Azores low escaping ne and fighting against the northerly. This system is different but still is some way from pinning down ref wedges, northerly and the phasing which will dictate how much it deepens. It could be that it disrupts and the second system is the one that hits. Could also run straight through n England. very uncertain indeed. 

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    Model discussion highlights

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Way too complex a scenario for the nwp to suss out atm 

    two bites at the cherry next week 

    Thereafter still looking like Atlantic ridge and sceuro trough although the atlantic ridge is further east on the eps than ideal

    geps the best by day 15/16

    events in the strat may have Aaron back soon - signs of a displacement followed by split and the momentum from gfs is for that split to be pretty much all on the Asian side.  With a strongly coupled strat/trop profile - seen today on the gfs back end .


    Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-22nd-jan-2024-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=5027872
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    Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Way too complex a scenario for the nwp to suss out atm 

    two bites at the cherry next week 

    Thereafter still looking like Atlantic ridge and sceuro trough although the atlantic ridge is further east on the eps than ideal

    geps the best by day 15/16

    events in the strat may have Aaron back soon - signs of a displacement followed by split and the momentum from gfs is for that split to be pretty much all on the Asian side.  With a strongly coupled strat/trop profile - seen today on the gfs back end .

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    Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

     nick sussex the majority need one of your analogies nick!

    sometimes the macro is coming irrespective of the micro before hand 

    my fear is we can’t advect deep enough cold into a very good pattern - in mid feb that maybe a frustrating scenario for southern half of the U.K. 

    developments in the strat are a new element into the mix and you wouldn’t discount a repeat of the January scenario where upwelling split leads to excellent coupled strat trop profile before the upper strat decides to put humpty back together again  routed across the n altantic. 

     

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    Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    A lot more disturbed tpv output for day 15 on the 00z eps than previous suites 

    whilst the ops may be unconvincing, the latest ens across all three main models are showing nw euro/sceuro troughing end week 2 which is pushed south into France We just need a mechanism to get cold to our east and southeast. An amplified Atlantic ridge over or east of Greenland - or anywhere east to scandi would be helpful but currently not really showing with any consistency. 

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