[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

39 minutes ago, CoventryWeather said:

 

MAR around 4/5th February looking at the EPS? Earlier than expected I would say. 

Not sure it is early as a feature

looks transient on the ens suites and I’d be surprised if we didn’t get a toppler of some sort around that time 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Something that has stood out to me recently is that the strat profile is very much in tandem with the trop profile out to day 10 (ish)

Gfs then completely changed the lower strat and trop beyond that. If the two remain in tandem then we should expect a scandi/ hopefully sceuro trough and the area to our west is up for grabs 

That leaves a wide number of solutions beyond the 4th 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Gfs following ec op 

the control went amplified MAR in fi 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

  @feb1991blizzard that’s quite an extrapolation feb !

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Euro heights beginning to fall away end week 2 going into 3 

could be a continuation of the zonal flow with a bit of amplification chucked in but that would introduce some wintriness ahead of stronger signals in mid feb 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Ukmo is consistent with its idea of stalling the Atlantic and show’s disruption 

Be nice to see ec pick that baton up later 

 

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  @Daniel* maybe a day ahead on the AO (20th against 21st).  Can’t really see that the NAO is a definitive call yet as marginally neg for now 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

13 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Especially given the uncertainty wrt the MJO at the moment. 

Todays updates on the bc aren’t great as they trend to cod in 7 without any decent amplification 

the non bc output is decent amp in 7. 

Weeks 2 and 3 on ec 46 (which are usually fairly reliable) are indicative of 7 and then 8 but judging amplification is going to be the issue at this range . I’d like to think that just as we had general agreement that the current run through the Indian Ocean would die in 3 (was wrong ) corrected to a high amp through 4 and 5 , so we can see this death in the w pacific overplayed too. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

@northwestsnow just noise for now but it’s our task to judge if the noise is getting louder or indeed if we can begin to hear the makings of a tune ……

bit like the classic Eric morecambe line - ‘ all the right notes but not necessarily in the right places’! 

@Met4Cast

25 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

If that’s the best synoptic we’re seeing within NWP modelling currently then it’s a concern. We know how blocks are often “watered down” and that’s barely a block to begin with

Really want to see NWP modelling throw out some more extreme blocking scenarios at that range. Can’t say i’m overly excited by the prospects of another dry northerly.. 

 

At day 8/10 you wouldn’t expect to see any HLB ??

and You can highlight the post if you want to 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

@StretfordEnd1996 thanks

looks ok by end week 2. Assuming we don’t get an accelerated cold solution ahead of expectations, the period week 2 feb and beyond look reasonable as being of wintry interest 

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@Stephen W annoying not to have the clusters this morning but having viewed the stamps, I’m not seeing much difference to the 12z set from yesterday 

as such, waiting to see this evening  if the 46 reverts to a more amplified set of charts taking the anomoly further nw 

glosea has clearly pushed the signal back in feb but the eps days 10/15 take precedence imo if they begin to show a faster route. Really wanted to see those clusters !

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Ukmo is at one end of the envelope re beginning to drive a neg tilt to the upstream Atlantic trough by day 6

gfs at the other 

gem, icon and ecm in between to varying degrees 

you’d say Ukmo looks overdone based on the other models 

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@Met4Cast I’d rather hang my hat on the eps suite days 10/15 than telecons at 4 weeks! 
that’s very much not to dismiss the telecons as a macro tool but so far this winter only once have the eps in the extended period got the signal wrong and that was briefly for a few runs approaching the Xmas period 

I’d look at the period post day 8/9 and say that the Nh profile is prone to amplify but until the northern arm relents a little we can’t benefit.  I’d be surprised if we didn’t see a dig of a trough over n America at some point which will allow an Atlantic ridge to go up 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Plenty of despondency this evening 

I actually think this ties in with the best set of eps in the 12/15 day period that we’ve seen for some time 

There are also some ops and control runs which look to have a very mashed tpv in fi 

the darkest of the night is just before the dawn …….  I think 

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If eps 00z are as enthused on Atlantic ridging as the 12z then assume the 46 might be a bit better tomorrow.  Whilst the models are no longer the same at day 15 you’d assume that there must be some synergy 

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45 minutes ago, Derecho said:

We all know how the BOM MJO phase 7 prediction turned out in December.

I hope we do get into phase 7 but it looks very uncertain to me going by the other models. Phase 6 in January is followed by very mild weather and in February it is cyclonic. We could get stuck in phase 6 for quite a while.

EC does get there on it's ens mean but If we are to get out of this rut, the increasingly slow progression towards a phase 7 means I'm not hopeful of much interesting until the second week of Feb (around the 10th).

By that point we have to start relying on increasingly impressive synoptics to get a good cold spell. If we can't get that I'd prefer a Feb 1998 type of month.

Feb 2018 did show we can get something potent but time is starting to work against us now.

Sorry but my glass is half empty today.

I also do believe the Iberian high is becoming more prominent due to climate change. Problem with that is if we get lower heights over the Azores (which is more common in El Nino late winters), this can actually make things even milder if the Iberian high doesn't subside we end up with a deep fetch SW'ly. Feb 1998 again being a prime example.

Not suggesting it will go that way at this early stage but the GFS is very stubborn with the Euro heights. EC also very poor at day 10.

Ec MJO forecast mean looks low amplitude phase 7 but if we remove the cluster that dies in phase 6 then we should get a decent arrival of amplitude in phase 7 before it heads into COD 

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At least everyone’s catching up with their sleep!

more of the same on the nwp 

seems a v slow road to the removal of euro heights and the movement of the rump of the upstream vortex across to the Asian side (if that does actually happen) 

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8 minutes ago, Don said:

If it wasn't for that high pressure over Iberia, I would agree it looks like a great chart.  However, as has been the case recently, high pressure over Iberia has often put a dampener on otherwise cold potential!

You could look at it this way 

it’s a seven day mean 

Maybe the Iberian high is strong 12/15th feb and then retrogresses a bit to deliver the following week’s mean which is block over U.K. and north westwards. The ec46 continues to bring a slow retrogressive pattern which delivers at the end of feb. I assume that this mean output hides a few clusters which would be wintry earlier 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

19 minutes ago, E17boy said:

Hi all,

Just saw this thought I share it don’t know how true this maybe but was interesting 

 

Not saying much that hasn’t been mentioned in here - obvs we’ve moved on from the scandi ridge idea now but sceuro trough and rising Atlantic heights is supposed to be the direction of travel …….eventually !

certainly using day 10 charts at 70npa is not that advised.  Whilst the strat should be more reliable than the trop re nwp, this year with the trop leading the dance that isn’t quite as assured as usual  and certainly not low down at 70hpa 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?]

16 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

I share the disappointment in the modelling at the moment, but it can always change at 10+ days away.

A slight positive today is the ecm seems to be resisting the urge to send the mjo into cod in phase 7, the 500mb anomaly is decent for February, although phase 8 is what we really want.

It seems to be taking an age to shift the tpv away from Greenland, which is eating up valuable winter days.

I would say a cold spell is still possible, but it's looking more  like mid February now, compared  to the monthly glosea / ecm which were advertising a totally blocked month for February a couple of weeks ago based on how strong the anomalies were

Joe b had a piece the other day illustrating a v warm sst anom that had appeared unexpectedly ne of Australia 

It could interfere with the expected movement of the MJO through its phases 

the ec today is more promising (the BC a little less so). Be interesting to see if the 46 picks that up later. 

[Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?]

17 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

Hey folks I viewed that 6z op run and thought no hope! Looks like the ens had other ideas.

All aboard the Feb express anyone??

The pieces of the puzzle are there into week 3 matt but getting them to fall for our little part of nw europe is v tough  

[Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?]

15 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well it's all in on  EC cluster 1 ..

As the biggest cluster we've got to hope this particular evolution grows in strength over the next few days ...

Obviously we are talking +10 day timeframe so it's aspiration at this time.

Looking through the individual stamps tells a less optimistic story.  I think this is a slow process to move the tpv away from Greenland to allow ridging to our west/northwest 

Looks like post 10 feb atm. Anything earlier would be a bonus based on what the nwp is generally showing 

[Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?]

25 minutes ago, AO- said:

Cluster 3 isn't that bad either. The low pressure moving into Scandinavia and northwest Russia. Good precursor for cold thereafter. Also some blocking to the Northwest

Euro heights 

losing the euro heights remains crucial - even moreso into feb 

[Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?]

7 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

At least there are quite a few runs lately really weakening the tropospheric vortex over Greenland, where not so long ago that wasn't the case.

perhaps a response to this.

 

I thought that but some runs are showing the upper strat slightly behind the lower strat and trop in the movement. I’d say the jury still out on whether anyone is in charge or if it’s all pretty well coupled.  Either way, the direction of travel is clear 

37 minutes ago, joggs said:

If ne America goes cold, surely that'll just fire the jet up?.

Not really good for us coldies here imo.

 

13 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Its Canada going cold that'd fire the jet up. 

I just noticed the Canadian Arctic prairies 850’s forecast 30c above normal days 9/10 ! (And staying ‘warm’ across e Canada out to day 16) 

I think the northern arm strengthened in relation to the split vortex rejoining and resetting over the Asian side. Without that the jet could just as easily re Inforced the Atlantic ridge with WAA as flattened it or run underneath a block or strong wedge. that bad luck again! 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?]

24 minutes ago, Stephen W said:

But, haven’t the unexpected strat developments taken everyone by surprise this year including the experts? As per Catacol’s post above, this looks to be bouncing back to above average and could well override any trop led developments that would otherwise have led to cold developing in February.  Also, I have found that the longer term MetO updates sometimes take a little while to update probably because they are waiting for a more difinitive signal, ie waiting to see whether the strengthening strat does indeed become the dominant factor over the next week or so.  I guess we will have to wait and see on that one.

The reflected ssw last week is something that is adding to the current switch to zonal but I don’t think there’s much more to it 

the last few gfs op runs have been showing notable negative flows above 75N in the lowest part of the  strat and trop.  The last two runs have shown this to be working its way up into the strat and weakening the flow a little higher up.  Infact, looking at the 12z gefs, shows the heights transferring quickly up through the strat from low down.  That takes us back to where we have been for the past month or so with a very coupled atmosphere and the trop in charge of the menu.