[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

rubbish 06z op. Lets see what the control and GEFS do

 

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

ECM could end up as a scandi high further down the line

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

1 minute ago, chris55 said:

The Trop PV is shredded. U.K. winter still on the cards. 
 

Easterly the form horse into new year IMO.

And we forget the legendary winters of 78/9 and even 1963 only got going after Christmas

 

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The day 7 ECM thankfully doesn’t amplify the upstream pattern .

The only hope now is for that not to happen until that low to the sw has got sufficiently east .

So flattish in the Atlantic to day 8 then a surge of amplification day 9.

Hopefully its just a case of putting up with a week of crud and then we can build another block in a favourable position, but probably no chance of a White Xmas now

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

Just noticed the GEM control run was also good, so we can cling to this model for hope. but we are probably just jaffa cakesing in the wind with this one. 

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

The only straw we have as Nick mentioned is the modelling of the Arctic High. There may be time for another flip back, but we should prepare for the worst. At least we had one cold spell this winter

 

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

Oh dear. Pants ECM to go with most of the other output, apart from GEM

Pete Tong has arrived to bugger it all up again

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

Pert 16 could deliver a white Christmas, but little point looking at page 2 of metiociel at this stage until the earlier pattern is resolved

 

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

25 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The GFS control is interesting in that the cold air hangs on in the far north and Scotland .

A few other ensembles do similar .

Its hard to see a huge change to save others snow given the timeframes . It would need a miraculous change .

But again its a good bellwether going forward as the less advance the mild mush makes the likely better blocking set up and shallower low .

Pert 7 is perhaps something we can hope for if the current trend is now accepted, virtually keeps it cold for everyone, but regardless of a brief mild spell we are hopefully moving towards model consensus. We need a good ICON 12z followed by UKM and Mogreps shifting towards this solution, but of course, the whole suite could shift again like we saw the other day, so pete tong is never far away!

Just now, minus10 said:

Wow ..look at the 6z ens cluster below the mean with the op in the middle..

Yes, as I was just saying, we might even get back to a 24 hour warm up only, but lets not be greedy!

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

8 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

A slightly better ICON 06 hrs run in terms of upstream pattern and shape of the UK low.

It’s really a battle between the the forcing exhibited by the high pressure to the nw v the low trying to deepen as vorticity is fed into it from the ne .

The low wants to move ne the high is trying to force it more se . The shallower the low the less ammunition it has to fight the high .

Shame we cant see the extended, but looks more like ECM  than UKMO

We need a good GFS op this time after the disappointment of the 00z, though the control and GEM were still good 

We are walking the tightrope thats for sure!

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

Slight improvement this morning compared to the disaster of last nights ECM. As Nick sussex said, dont give up just yet, though it is looking green for xmas but perhaps some blocking afterwards is possible

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

Control looks like big rain to snow event next Wednesday

 

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Big shift in the ensembles at a relatively short lead time, IF these keep upgrading and we end up with a deep cold N'ly, it will be the first time i have ever seen the 'whole suits can flip from mild to a cold outcome in the 168 range' theory actually ever come true, i have seen the reverse many a time, certainly in the D8 range.

Yes, normally it always flips to mild, but perhaps the Xmas gods are listening to us!

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

interesting control so far, getting there, cold stays for the north

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

Would be perfect for Xmas day. 

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

Pert 6 and 19 is what we want to see, lets see if more like this in the evening spread

 

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

11 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Well I wouldn’t bank on it just yet ! 

The pattern is very twitchy and small changes can have a large impact on what happens .

 

If you are positive, then I wont give up just yet. FIne margins as you mentioned. Tonights runs will be crucial, that old cliche really does apply to this situation!

 

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

7 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Typical the GFS 06 hrs run goes on strike just when we wanted to see if there was any move towards the UKMO output .

Everyone's on strike at the moment. I doubt we would get much movement towards UKMO, seems an impossible hope when pressure remains high over europe and nothing to force it

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

looks like a pants ECM tonight so far

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

GFS Control looking better than the op so far with the phasing

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

control is good so far

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

another attempt at blocking just in time for xmas

 

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

An improvement on the 00z op, north keeps the cold, would take much for the phasing to be further south

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

9 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Large disagreements between the GFS and ECM .

The former trying to develop high pressure over and to the ne of the UK , the latter keeping any heights in the Greenland area.

The lack of amplitude on that low to the west of the UK means it’s a struggle for the GFS to get a decent high sufficiently north .

You really need a more elongated low with a more negative or at worst neutral tilt to help develop that high to its east and ne .

With these types of disagreements it’s hard to know what’s going to happen !

 

Seems like a classic Euro models vs North American again

But lets see if the UKM and ECM flip into line this evening. Either way, a week long cold snap is the best we should expect in this country, Anything else is a bonus

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

You just know ECM is going to poop on the parade. Never seem to get a full set of good runs!